Some people see the eight seeding games in Orlando as simply a formality before the real contenders battle it out in playoff basketball. This is especially true for teams like the Raptors who have clinched their playoff spot near the top of their conference. I see it as a test drive wherein players and teams should be assessing and tuning their skills and chemistry to make sure they’re ready for the ‘important’ games.
After getting out to a 3-0 start in the Orlando bubble, the Raptors’ next games left a little something to be desired. Beating the Magic was a bit underwhelming. Follow that up with a loss to the Boston Celtics and a win over the Memphis Grizzlies that was closer than it should have been, and there’s no question that there’s some tightening up to do before the NBA playoffs begin in a week.
Turnovers
On the season, the Raptors haven’t been stellar at taking care of the ball. They’ve averaged 14.6 turnovers over 68 games, ranking them 16th in the league. In their first five bubble games, they averaged 18.4. This increase might be written off as negligible, especially when you take into account the fact that they’ve given up fewer points off turnovers in the bubble than during the season (16.4 to 16.9), but it’s concerning.
I’m thinking of this in terms of the opponents they are going to have to face on the road to defending the title. As the opponents get tougher, every possession becomes important, even critical. (Remembering a certain Eastern Conference Semi-Finals buzzer-beater right now.) Teams like the Milwaukee Bucks, Los Angeles Lakers and Los Angeles Clippers are going to punish any team not taking care of the ball. The 21 turnovers against the Miami Heat and 25 against the Memphis Grizzlies? That has to be better.
Adjusting to the Game
Usually, I rank the Raptors among the best teams in the league at making the right adjustments in the context of the game. This is a skill I attribute mostly to their stellar coaching staff. In the, dare I say, embarrassing loss to the Boston Celtics on August 7th, those adjustments were M.I.A. In that game, the Raptors put up 38 shots from 3-point range and only drained 10. Sure, that’s not too far off their season average of 37 attempts, but the 26% mark is a far cry from their usual 37%.
Their 17 free throw attempts in that game are also below their season average of 23. My concern there is compounded by the fact that the threes were just not falling that night. The game called for a different approach and the Raptors didn’t change it up.
One of my least favourite aspects of this NBA age of analytics is so many teams’ willingness to live and die by the three. One of my favourite things about the Raptors is that overall they have not adopted that philosophy. They shoot a lot of threes, but their offense generally has a great balance of smart three-point attempts, pick-and-roll plays, drives to the basket, and even some mid-range game depending on the lineup. In a game like the one against the Celtics, you hope that poor outside shooting will translate into more drives to the basket in an attempt to make higher percentage shots and win more trips to the free-throw line.
Lack of Consistent Intensity
As cliche a concept as it is, winning basketball games, especially in the playoffs, requires a team to come out and compete for a full 48 minutes, period. Even though the Raptors walked away from their August 5th matchup with the Magic with a win, the compete level in that game was up and down. After ending the first half with a 55-35 lead, Orlando came out with a 9-0 run to start the third quarter and had cut the lead to 10 by the start of the fourth. There wasn’t any point in that game where I felt like the Magic had a real shot of handing the Raptors a loss, but the larger picture created cause for concern.
Against the Celtics, the Raptors seemed flat the entire game. That was not the Toronto Raptors team we’re used to. I know Warner Brothers’ Monstars weren’t allowed onto the Disney grounds to steal the team’s talent so I was left saying, “What gives?!”
After taking such a beating, I would have expected the Raptors to come out swinging in their next matchup, no matter the stakes or who they’re up against. The opponent is beside the point here. This should have been about personal pride. The Raptors needed to be psyched, even a little angry, that they were beaten so handily by a team thought to be a division rival and possible playoff opponent. Instead, the Raptors were kept scoreless by the Grizzlies through three minutes of play and five offensive possessions before getting their first two points from a Pascal Siakam trip to the charity stripe.
Eventually, the Raptors began to look like a team intent on a repeat this season, but the fact that the intensity wasn’t there out of the gate doesn’t sit well. I’m a big believer in good habits when it comes to winning. Teams who develop good habits are always going to be better prepared and more able to deal with in-game adversity. Effort is a habit. When shots aren’t falling or opposing teams are disrupting offensive plays, max-effort on each offensive possession and defensive trip can go a long way to weathering the storm.
I understand that these are seeding games, that the Raptors have clinched the second seed and the “real” competition is to come. Monday’s possible Eastern Conference Finals preview against the Milwaukee Bucks was a good step forward, even if key players were sitting out. The effort and intensity were there from hungry bench players. They have two more games that don’t have anything on the line, and I’d like to see that same seriousness. If they don’t get things cleaned up in these areas, I might have to reevaluate my almost obnoxiously unwavering conviction that the Raptors are coming out of the East this season. Winning is a habit.
