Our expectations of this season need to be checked. It appears to be coming as a surprise to many that our frontcourt is a tad bit inconsistent, our guards are exploitable defensively, we scramble so much that we end up guarding nobody, and that Pascal Siakam can’t create good shots. These are hardly revelations so if this is coming as a shock to our system, then it’s great that we’re getting these tremors out of the way early.
Any projection that had the Raptors over .600 relied on three fundamental assumptions. First, that the Raptors defense would be the backbone of the team. This hasn’t held true so far because the Raptors have taken a significant step back from a talent perspective. Replacing Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol with Aron Baynes, Alex Len and Chris Boucher is like replacing a Dyson with a Hoover. Yeah, the Hoover will have good days and sweep up some dried up cat puke no problem, but if that thing is even a little bit wet, forget about it. The Raptors are just encountering way too much wet puke and Chris Boucher and Alex Len’s lovable appearances aren’t enough to pull them through, let alone control the paint like their predecessors.
The most glaring happens to be the rebounding where the Raptors are 26th in the league in DRTG, which in combination with also being 26th in TS% essentially means we’re missing too much and not collecting the boards from those misses (or the other teams misses). The boards are lacking and so is the shot quality, with Pascal Siakam taking the brunt of the blame. We’re witnessing him waste possessions by doing things that let off the defense pretty much on every possession. Whether it be an awkward early jumper or an uncoordinated move to the rim, it’s just not good offense. More on that in a bit.
The Raptors defense is also scrambling at everything. Maybe it’s because short of OG and Siakam, nobody can quite control dribble penetration and our default response to that is to scramble, close-out hard, give up a drive followed by a kick-out and open three. Rinse-and-repeat. If our guards can’t stop anything then maybe the shape of our defense needs to change instead of us just running around like Free Safetys. Otherwise, as we saw against the Pelicans, it’s going to be a parade to the FT line for the other team because the last thing a tired defense can do is defend without fouling. Yes, there were some chippy fouls called in there but overall, the Pelicans had the Raptors on their hip the entire game. Also, Box and One (or any zone) only works if you can handle the boards, so the recipe from the last two years requires an update to match the personnel.
Second, we assumed that Pascal Siakam would brush off his playoff misery and ascend to something resembling a Tier 1ish player. That hasn’t happened. This is where this year has to come into context because this is truly the first year where the weight of the team rests on Siakam’s skinny shoulders. He’s going to have to go through a lot of growing pains and he might not make it. It’s important we acknowledge that there is a possibility that he just might not be the superstar that we hope he turns out to be and not hate him for it.
The only way to find out is to let him play through his struggles extensively. I don’t have a problem with him bombing away from three because if there is a season to get your shots up to the point where you’re .370+ from three, this is it. Yeah, it’ll be ugly on many nights and we’ll lose games, but if you see Siakam as an investment rather than a finished product, then it makes sense to give him a long leash and not let your blood pressure get so high when he’s doing awkward stuff on the floor. We afforded Chris Bosh and DeMar DeRozan years to develop but are getting impatient with Siakam in year #1 of this being “his” team? Doesn’t make sense.
He is absolutely deserving of criticism as he’s cringeworthy to watch on offense. Instead of remedying his own struggles he’s accentuating them. He’s not putting any pressure on the defense or the officials, which has resulted in anemic FT numbers. He takes shots early in the clock that are available anytime, and when he drives his 6’9” frame may as well be 6’1” because of his attack angles. There’s a lot to be critical of here but it bears no fruit. He is our guy and this season has quite possibly taken a detour from being Siakam’s coming-of-age season to him learning just what an NBA defense that can anticipate your moves is capable of.
This was a real possibility as evidenced by the Boston series, and frankly, you can go back several months to see that Siakam had been searching to find a consistent source of efficient offense since February 2020. As simplistic as it sounds, the guy has no developed moves. Right now he can squeak his way into the paint but then he has to phone a friend to figure out what’s next. There’s nothing natural or elegantly responsive about his offense – it’s predetermined and clunky. I’m sure the coaches have talked to him about it and are working with him to figure that out, but it’ll take time and that time may just be the entire season.
Third, the Raptors depth was supposed to be an advantage. Last year OG Anunoby’s promotion to the starting lineup didn’t seem to hurt the bench as Terence Davis and Norman Powell filled the void adequately. This year nobody’s quite doing that and the guy that’s seemingly capable of it – Malachi Flynn – has played a grand total of four minutes in the first five games. This isn’t intended to be a #FreeFlynn section of the post but seriously, what gives? We clearly need more playmaking and three-point shooting on the floor as both our 1s are keener on scoring than setting people up, and Flynn offers that while improving the defense. Once again, if you see this year through the lens of a “rebuilding” year then this is an obvious move, which only leads me to think that the Raptors actually think they can compete in the East. Maybe it’ll take Brooklyn beating them by 60 points for reality to kick in.
Back to the depth. Powell has struggled, Davis hasn’t gotten much time, Flynn is benched, Thomas has struggled on both ends, which puts even greater pressure on Lowry, Siakam and VanVleet to deliver consistently and in greater volume. Remember how this was the year Lowry was supposed to ease into things and play less than the 36.2 minutes he averaged last year? He’s at 37.4 mpg and even that hasn’t been enough. This was a risk that was well-acknowledged as we’re not even sure if Powell has another level in him, Thomas has never been a rotation player and Davis has struggled with off-court issues.
Key assumptions that needed to hold out haven’t, and the Raptors find themselves in a tough spot with tougher opponents on the horizon. I’ve used the term bridge year countless times since the season on podcasts and in writing. Previously, it was a potential bridge to Giannis, but with that out of the picture it’s just a bridge to next season where hopefully the Raptors, collectively and individually, improve. This year may be about improvement, not contention. We should be talking about Siakam’s improvement as a finisher, Fred’s improving range, Davis’ improving playmaking, OG and Boucher’s improving it all, and so on. It is the year of Kaizen , an approach to creating continuous improvement based on the idea that small, ongoing positive changes can reap significant improvements down the road.
Now, if you do want to contend this year, the current roster isn’t going to do it and major moves are needed. The problem here is that the value of our assets is decreasing because of their play so time isn’t on Masai Ujiri’s side. I don’t see him as an impatient man (though he did almost trade Lowry and #TankForWiggins) so chances of him staying steady are high. The trade, if there was ever even anything material there, was Siakam/Harden. Given that the stated principle of the Raptors organization is to have the flexibility to pounce on opportunities by leveraging their deep assets, I’m guessing those assets weren’t attractive enough.
Whether it be Kaizen or Contention, something needs to change.
