Well, well, well… James Harden desperately wants out of Houston and the Toronto Raptors appear to be in a position to trade for him.
The reasons why the Raptors should consider breaking up their lovable young core in order to go all-in for The Beard are obvious: Harden is a perennial MVP candidate and one of the greatest scorers not just of his generation, but of all time. Statistically, he might actually be the greatest. He is a top-5 offense by himself and, for a team that currently ranks last in offensive rating and was mediocre in the half-court all of last season, Harden is the ultimate fix.
But when we look a little deeper into the nuances of the situation, taking into account the proposed trade centred around Pascal Siakam (and Norman Powell) and a package of picks for Harden (and PJ Tucker), it’s actually a lot more complicated than it might seem.
First of all, this is not DeMar DeRozan for Kawhi Leonard. Sure, Harden is a lot healthier than Leonard was, so that part works in the Raptors’ favour. But it’s important to note that the Kyle Lowry/DeRozan Raptors’ core had already run its course and reached its ceiling. They could not get over the postseason hump after several years of trying, with their most recent iteration being swept by LeBron James’ Cleveland Cavaliers. The Raptors’ front office had relatively little to lose when they dealt DeRozan, Jakob Poeltl and a first-round pick to the Spurs, because they were going to shake up their roster regardless.
The current situation is dramatically different because even if they are a piece or two short of championship contention, the current core has not yet reached its ceiling, and they’re only failed attempt so far came in a bubble during a pandemic.
Additionally, while Harden has one more years remaining on his contract than Leonard did (plus a player-option in 2022-23), the person the Raptors would be trading for him, Siakam in this case, has four more years remaining on his contract, while DeRozan only had two years (plus a player option). It was also pretty clear that the Raptors didn’t want to be responsible for paying DeRozan once his contract was up, which made sense given that they were forced to bench him down the stretch of important playoff games due to his lacklustre defense. Siakam, on the other hand, might still be in his prime by the time his current contract is over four years from now, potentially making him still desirable to the Raptors in four years’ time.
Another thing to consider here is Siakam’s ceiling. It’s easy to say that he is who he is at age 26, but that would be to completely discount Siakam’s unique career progression to date and the fact that he only started playing competitive basketball in his late teens, suggesting he might reach his peak later than most players do. There are so many aspects of Siakam’s game that he can improve upon in the margins — especially his handle — and overall, he is still a relatively raw player. He’s had a poor start to the season, but it’s worth waiting until at least the trade deadline to see if Siakam plateaus or improves before thinking about dealing him.
I am probably higher on Siakam’s ceiling than most people, but I recognize that he will never be as good as Harden is right now. Usually, it makes sense to favour the sure thing over the thing that has potential, acknowledging that most NBA players never reach their perceived ceilings. But the only reason any team looking into Harden would gut their core to trade for him is if it makes that team a surefire championship contender immediately. In the Raptors’ case, trading Siakam for Harden would create an even more guard/perimeter-heavy roster than the one they already have, creating a really imbalanced roster with limited ways to reconstruct it around Harden.
With that being said, let’s look at the on-court fit. While Harden solves the Raptors No. 1 issue of half-court offense, and playing him next to Lowry makes a whole lot of sense, does trading Siakam (and Powell for salary matching purposes) for Harden make the Raptors the favourite to come out of the Eastern Conference? Even if the Houston Rockets are willing to add PJ Tucker to the deal, does a frontcourt of OG Anunoby, Tucker, Aron Baynes, and Chris Boucher get you past the Bucks, Heat, Sixers, and Nets? Does it get you past the Lakers? Is Anunoby ready to carry such a large load on both sides of the ball?
The problem with trading a wing/forward for a guard is that the Raptors’ frontcourt already lacks depth and versatility after losing Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol this offseason. Had the Raptors kept that veteran frontcourt, it would be a lot easier to plug in Harden and go. But on this roster, replacing Siakam with Tucker would make the Raptors dramatically less versatile in the frontcourt, and significantly worse defensively. Tucker is a beast on that end, don’t get me wrong, but the Raptors would likely have to change their entire defensive system to compensate for losing Siakam’s chaos-creation and his unique ability to protect the rim while also getting out to contest outside shots (he had the most three-point contests in the league last season).
It’s also important to take into account why the Rockets never made it over the hump with Harden-led teams in the first place. Harden did struggle to perform down the stretch in several big playoff games, but I think his playoff failures are overblown given how big of a load he was forced to carry. The problem, though, was that he had to carry such a big load because the Rockets never landed a wing who could create his own shot despite desperately trying to trade for guys like Jimmy Butler. Look at the recent NBA champions and almost all of them had that player archetype (the Lakers had two). Say what you will about Siakam, but he is the only non-guard on the Raptors roster who can consistently create his own shot, and the Raptors would be significantly restricted in a playoff series without that type of player.
Yes, the Rockets got remarkably close to the finals with Chris Paul and Harden and no wing-creator, but that team was built with the expressed purpose of beating a small team in Golden State. The Warriors were an anomaly, and the league is now back to a more traditional power structure where frontcourts are important. This is not just a reaction to the 2020 Los Angeles Lakers title, but a reaction to the history of basketball being dominated by centers and strong frontcourts.
Does it make sense to trade Siakam for Harden straight up, and then balance the roster by trading other assets like Fred VanVleet and first-round picks elsewhere? Sure. I think the Raptors should do that trade if it is on the table. But the Rockets are demanding a franchise cornerstone and a package of first-round picks/pick swaps. Without picks, how do the Raptors create a balanced roster? They could look into trading Fred VanVleet, but how many two-way wings earning $20M a year are there on the trade market to go and get? Plus, would the Raptors be willing to get rid of another young core piece and sacrifice their future even further? If the Raptors wanted to gut their future assets, they should have done it when Kawhi Leonard and Paul George were willing to be Raptors before signing in Los Angelos.
This is a complicated situation, so it’s no wonder it has Raptors’ Twitter in a frenzy. Anytime a top-5 player is on the trade market, you have to look into it. But this is not as easy of a decision as trading DeRozan for Leonard was — and that itself was an extremely difficult decision. There are nuances here that cannot be ignored, such as Siakam’s ceiling, the potentially unbalanced roster, and the gutting of Toronto’s future assets.
I would love to see Harden in a Raptors’ jersey, but only at the right price. It doesn’t make sense to go all-in for Harden unless it makes the Raptors an immediate championship contender, and based on the way the roster is currently constructed, I’m not sure that leveraging the Raptors’ future for Harden makes sense right now.
