The following is a guest post from Jai Guruprasad
Well Raptors fans, all good things must come to an end. The Toronto Raptors will be watching the playoffs from home for the first time in seven years. While it feels like the We The North era might be coming to an end, and for younger Raptors fans it might feel like a time to panic, I would urge you to think of it more as a transition period. There are lots of positives to look forward to. There is a clear core group of players who exhibit strong organizational values. Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam, and OG Anunoby were on the Championship team and are under contract to help usher new talent into the Raptors’ system. After a very up-and-down year, for many reasons inside and out of the team’s control, the 2021 offseason projects to be the first step to nailing this transition period. Here are six simple steps to help the Raptors transition smoothly back into winning basketball games.
#1: Re-signing President Masai Ujiri
Masai Ujiri’s contractual status has been up in the air since the moment the Raptors became Champions. Masai himself has been asked this question a couple times during the 2021 season and has addressed it clearly after the trade deadline simply saying, “We’ll visit it at the end of the season at some point.” He reiterated that negotiations will happen in the future at some point after the season ended. Ujiri’s impact on the franchise doesn’t need explanation. Bobby Webster signing his extension on February 4 does give some comfort, but keeping Ujiri in Toronto will help everyone sleep much more comfortably at night. He has consistently been able to capitalize on opportunities and make the most out of them. Most team presidents were concerned about trading for a likely one-year rental of Kawhi Leonard, but Ujiri saw a real chance at an NBA title, and it paid off. Many of the trades he has made have resulted in a very valuable return and sometimes even end up looking like a fleecing — apologies to Greivis Vasquez. Ujiri has shown his ability to prioritize championships in his decision making and follow through on the promise.
#2: The 2021 Draft
The Raptors project to have a high lottery pick for the first time since selecting Jakob Poeltl ninth in 2016. While the front office and scouting department have shown an incredible ability to find talent outside of the lottery and even outside of the draft, there is no doubt that the team can use high-end talent now. It is also important to remember that the Raptors have two second round picks. That includes the Memphis and Golden State picks which they got from the Terence Davis and Matt Thomas deadline day trades respectively. This could lead to two more young players for the 905 system or perhaps be packaged together for something else, such as a big man whose development might be more of a process. Assuming that ping pong balls don’t fall their way, the Raptors will be picking in the seven-to-eight range. There are a number of players that should be available such as Keon Johnson, Scottie Barnes and March Madness star Davion Mitchell, all of whom would inject some young energy into the team. In the modern NBA, perimeter creation is one of the most important aspects to a successful offense. Players like Cade Cunningham and Jalen Suggs are elite at this part of the game and accordingly should be drafted in the top three. There are many different molds of players that the team can target in the draft but Johnson, Barnes and Mitchell each offer different traits that would fit in immediately with the Raptors. Keon Johnson would immediately provide the team with rim pressure, something that they have sorely lacked in the last two years. Scottie Barnes could create a defensive juggernaut in the frontcourt with Siakam and Anunoby. Davion Mitchell fits into a more recent Raptor prototype of older players in the draft who have already developed their game in college and can contribute right away. The leadership and defensive abilities of VanVleet, Siakam, and Anunoby combined with young talent is a tantalizing idea and will make this transition period even smoother.
#3: The Kyle Lowry Situation
The greatest Raptor of all time may have played his last home game in Toronto all the way back in February of 2020 in a ho-hum loss against the Charlotte Hornets. Lowry has been an absolute star both on and off the court during his time in Toronto, which has continued into Tampa Bay and the 2021 season, which has not been easy on anyone. While it seemed like a foregone conclusion at points before the deadline that Lowry would be somewhere else, he still ended up staying with the team. Lowry rested to end the season, allowing for the team to evaluate younger guards like Malachi Flynn and their fit within the system. The Athletic reported that the Philadelphia 76ers still plan on pursuing Lowry this summer in a sign-and-trade scenario. There will likely also be a number of other championship-level teams interested in signing the veteran point guard. Miami is a name that keeps popping up, and Lowry has a well documented friendship with Jimmy Butler. The Clippers would certainly benefit from pairing Lowry with Leonard and Serge Ibaka again as they continue their journey of angering Raptor fans everywhere. The pros and cons of keeping Lowry at the deadline were somewhat balanced in my mind. Allowing him to mentor Flynn is key. And in his last game of the season, he torched the Lakers and sent them into the play-in-tournament spiral. Lowry comes with a significant cap hold of $39.3 million on the Raptors’ books this summer, which will dictate the early days of Toronto’s free agency. The quicker the team and Lowry decide on what to do, the more options they’ll have whether or not Lowry returns to the Raptors. Keep him as he continues to defy father time, let him walk to a championship contender, get something back in a sign-and-trade — these are all viable options. However, this might be the time to fully transition to the new generation. With the amount of games he missed this year, we got a good look at what a Lowry-less Raptor team looks like. While he will be missed, his tendencies and tenacity have rubbed off on other players and will hopefully continue to live on. If Lowry leaves, the team can fully hand over the keys to VanVleet and Flynn as the two floor generals of the future.
#4: Signing a Center
For all the love we give to Ujiri and the front office, it does have to be pointed out that the 2020 offseason signings of Aron Baynes and Alex Len were among their worst decisions. Obviously, we have the benefit of hindsight now, but Len was waived early and is now contributing to the playoff Washington Wizards. Meanwhile Baynes has been MIA since the signings of Birch and Gillespie, only seeing the court when Toronto had seven players available. Given the way that the team, Birch, and Gillespie, have all talked about their short time together, one would expect them both to be back next year and Baynes not to be. While Birch is a free agent this summer, he has spoken highly of the team giving him the opportunity to showcase parts of his game that he wasn’t able to show in Orlando. That doesn’t mean the Raptors won’t explore their options in the free agent market. Unfortunately, there aren’t many names that jump off the page. Richaun Holmes may be the best option on the market, a solid option coming off a career year. However, since Holmes played so well this year, his asking price might be quite high. Considering the Raptors are going to have to pay Trent somewhere around $15 million a year, Holmes is likely out of range for the Raptors unless they manage some cap magic. Worst case, the team goes into next season with Birch and Gillespie as the one-two punch at that position, which is much better than how this season began. Birch showed starter-level play in his brief time with the team and great chemistry with some of the core players as well. He extended his shooting range, making more threes in 19 games with the Raptors than his entire career in Orlando, and provided versatile defense. Miley Cyrus covers aside, Gillespie has worked very hard to understand and execute Nurse’s complex defensive schemes and has shown nice touch around the rim on offense as well. Those two should provide the Raptors with enough play at the center position to let the Raptors feel comfortable for at least next year.
#5: A Healthy Offseason
After such an up-and-down year with various injuries and players who contracted COVID-19, there is nothing more important than having everyone get back to full levels of health and conditioning. A lingering calf injury to OG Anunoby offers some concern. The emergence of Anunoby as a two-way star this year and presumably for the foreseeable future is key to the Raptors’ return to the top of the Eastern Conference. VanVleet dealt with a hip injury towards the end of the year that sapped his burst, and Siakam sustained a minor shoulder injury. Boucher is recovering from an MCL sprain. The offseason needs to be used to get these core players back to full health so they can get back together for workouts.
#6 Gary Trent Jr.’s Free Agency
Gary Trent Jr.’s restricted free agency will be important to the salary cap situation. Because he is restricted, The Raptors have the right to match any offer sheet that he signs with another team, but he holds a relatively small cap hold of $4.7 million for now. Players of Trent Jr.’s caliber seem to get anywhere between $13 million to $20 million annually — players with streaky but solid scoring chops and above average defense. Trent Jr. did turn down an extension in Portland that would have paid him, on average, $14.2 million a year. The Raptors will hope to keep him for less than what Norman Powell is expected to get in his upcoming free agency this year, which could be in the range of $20 million per year. Trent Jr. is only 22 years old and has a long time to further develop the flashes of scoring brilliance that he showed in his brief tenure with the Raptors. Toronto brought him in with the intention of having him fill Powell’s role but at a younger age and for less money. That plan remains in effect.
There are obviously more than just these six steps for the team to address this summer. The development of the core group – VanVleet, Siakam, Anunoby – is perhaps most integral to the floor and ceiling of the team. For VanVleet, finishing at the rim should be a focus. For Siakam, the continued growth of his handle and finding his shooting stroke from distance again. For Anunoby, his continued growth on offense as a scorer and playmaker. It is also time for the front office to decide which fringe and rotation players they want to bring back for next year. Rotation players this year such as DeAndre’ Bembry and Paul Watson Jr. have non-guaranteed contracts and require serious consideration for next year. While the last few months have no doubt been disappointing, there is a lot to look forward to. This summer is the first step back in the right direction for the franchise.
