Fred VanVleet’s NBA career has been one long, continuous bet on himself. The story is gospel at this point. He began as an undrafted rookie, and his average minutes, shot attempts, and points scored have risen steadily every season of his career. His meteoric rise culminated in an All-Star berth last season, his first as a 20-point-per-game scorer, making him only the fifth undrafted player to ever become an All Star. A betting observer, much like VanVleet himself, might have assumed his trend would remain consistent coming into the 2022-23 season.
But instead of adding more points, more shots, more of everything to his plate this season, VanVleet seems to be on a diet. His per-game shot attempts have plummeted from 16.9 per game (in between Tyler Herro and LaMelo Ball last season) to 11.3 (in between Brook Lopez and Tobias Harris’ averages this season). He is scoring less and using fewer plays. He was seventh in the league in touches last season and is 18th this year. He is dribbling the ball less each time he touches it and is holding it for fewer seconds.
VanVleet is doing decidedly less for the Raptors this season on the offensive end. The culmination of this trend was a one-point game against the Philadelphia 76ers on Oct. 28 in which VanVleet shot 0-for-11 from the floor. It’s hard to say which is more surprising: that he didn’t make a shot, or that he attempted only 11. Neither reality would have been typical of VanVleet in 2021-22, even if Raptors fans are quite used to low-scoring affairs from their star point guards.
Instead, VanVleet has replaced his overt scoring contributions with more subtle affairs. He is setting a career high in assists per game and is top 10 in the league in that regard. He is third in steals per game, which has remained a constant for VanVleet no matter the offensive load he’s taken on. But he seems to have more options on the offensive end — and is turning to the creation option more often than the scoring one.
“Looks like [his control of the game has improved],” said Nick Nurse of this when play when I asked him about it. “It looks to me like he’s finding another play when he gets in there. Sometimes he’ll sit in there and pass it; sometimes he’ll bounce it back out. Or sometimes he’ll get off it, back out, and go screen again. I think he’s found a next action, or several of them.”
In a way, VanVleet is still betting on himself. But he’s no longer betting on himself in isolation, as an individual star. That is a known quantity at this point. Now he’s betting on himself as a teammate, on his teammates as scorers. And he’s also betting on his franchise to understand that his step back is actually two steps forward. When facing questions about his upcoming contract — this is the final year of VanVleet’s deal excepting a player option in 2023-24, one he is quite likely to decline in search of a larger payday — VanVleet said before the season started that the only thing that matters for his bank account is winning. He’s done all the rest. (And he’s certainly done winning, too, if we’re being particular.) He has nothing left to prove.
But is VanVleet’s new approach actually helping the Raptors win? So far, the jury is out on that.
“I asked him several times in the game physically if he was alright,” said Nurse after VanVleet’s stinker against the Sixers. “And he said that he was every time, but he certainly was out of sorts. There’s no doubt about it.”
Even if injury or illness does explain VanVleet’s performance, it’s not his only down game of the season. He recorded a seven-point game against the Miami Heat, and his true shooting percentage is the lowest of his career since his rookie season. VanVleet isn’t just not scoring; he’s also not scoring efficiently when he does look at the rim. He’s shooting the worst percentage of his career from 2-point range, including 25.0 percent from within 10 feet on only 2.7 attempts per game. The prior lowest accuracy he recorded from within 10 feet was 42.0 percent in 2016-17 as a rookie. So based purely on regression to the mean, you can expect his accuracy to bounce back somewhat. But it also goes to show that VanVleet isn’t pressuring the rim whatsoever this season. He’s never been so limited in the paint.
It’s possible injury has sapped much of what explosiveness VanVleet did have, and his changed approach to the game is in response to physical limitations. If that’s the case, the VanVleet story changes. There’s no reason to panic about injury yet. But he is driving less often this season and is passing on 61.5 percent of his drives — the league lead among players with 10 or more drives per game.
Even if injury is limiting him, VanVleet is actually making it work. His assist rate has never been higher and his turnover rate never lower. His usage rate has plummeted, which isn’t such a bad thing considering his scoring ability with the ball once he gets inside the arc. And the team isn’t necessarily seeing a drop-off as a result of VanVleet’s own.
Toronto’s offense is 3.2 points per 100 possessions better with VanVleet on the court versus off, which is basically identical to VanVleet’s All-Star mark from 2021-22. (His defensive on/off marks basically blow the entire league out of the water; they’re preposterous.) The team’s scoring is much more diverse with VanVleet in the game, with Pascal Siakam and O.G. Anunoby scoring less per 100 possessions and Gary Trent jr., Scottie Barnes, and Precious Achiuwa scoring more. That’s a good thing and typical of a point guard. Importantly, virtually everyone on the team has a higher shot quality with VanVleet playing, meaning his new approach does create easier shots for the team offense. That was true last season, but to less of an extent.
VanVleet is smart and skilled enough that he can make virtually anything work on the basketball court. Sure, there will be down moments as there were against the Sixers. But by and large, he’s doing more to involve his teammates, doing less to monopolize the ball, and the offense is benefiting as a result. If he started making layups even to his subpar rate from past seasons, then he would be recording perhaps the most impactful season of his career. Indeed, FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR, a per-possession single number metric that ranks player performance, puts VanVleet’s performance this year on both ends of the court as right in line with the best seasons of his career. In totality, he has been a huge benefit on both ends. His game has changed, but in many ways his impact has not.
Of course, the Raptors aren’t really winning yet this season. At 3-3, they’ve been average, although against some of the most difficult teams in the league. VanVleet’s current bet, and his most oblique yet, is not to have the best on/offs of his career. It’s not to set assist records or to have wonderful advanced stats or to run fewer pick and rolls. His bet is on his team winning. It’s no longer on himself. And so no matter what VanVleet himself does, the most important marker of the success of the bet is Toronto’s record. And much like VanVleet, it’s been fine. Some highs and lows. The Raptors will need to start shredding the competition for VanVleet’s newest bet to pay off. Toronto’s whole season is riding on it.
