We’ve seen 3 Raptors entrenched in rumours this season: Gary Trent Jr., O.G. Anunoby, and Fred VanVleet. With the trade deadline coming up, I’ll assess the pros and the cons of trading them and keeping them. We obviously can’t say exactly what comes back in a trade, but I hope that everyone is okay with my forecasting/reading of the room on value. There are some factors I simply can’t control for.
First up: Gary Trent Jr., and let’s make the case for why he should stay first.
We’ll be clear, though. Anyone who is plugged in, has been suggesting that Trent Jr. is by far the most likely to be moved. Now, there’s a very big question that I have no hard intel on: Does the man want to stay in Toronto for a second contract? I have no clue.
He’s, reportedly, looking to turn down his player option of 18.5M this offseason. He plans to test the open market where he can again, reportedly, expect to field offers in the realm of 25M a year and up. Both of these things pass the sniff test. He has some backcourt contemporaries — RJ Barrett, Tyler Herro, Jordan Poole — who signed massive extensions (all larger than 4 years and 120 Million), all of whom playmake much better, and score slightly better than Trent Jr. He is, however, a better defender than both Poole and Herro. Poll fans, poll executives, and you’ll find that Trent Jr. is valued the least of these four.
He’ll make a good deal less, though.
The main reason to keep Trent Jr. is if you believe in the hottest version of his jumper. Relative to his role, usage-percentage, and contract his heat checks know no equal. The combination of his ability to hit heavily contested shots, the combos he breaks off to create the jumpers, and the green light when he has it all going? They are all qualities of a star. Against tight contests, he’s shooting 51.4-percent on two-point shots, and 34-percent on his threes. Both really great numbers. He shot 34-percent on his pull-up 3’s last season, he’s a smidge under 32-percent this season, and both of those numbers are good enough to strike fear into the hearts of opponents – hitting over 30-percent on pull-up threes will make every defense in the league care about your dribble above the break. Since the Christmas break (15 games)? He’s averaging over 22 points per game, and shooting 42-percent on his pull-up 3’s. He’s a serious heat pump.
That’s most of the sell, honestly. You have to believe that you’re signing one of the best shooters in the NBA. His high points are very convincing. You don’t let those guys walk.
Now, how do you avoid the disaster scenario? You made the bet on his shooting and he’s not quite in that upper echelon. Could Trent Jr. become that DeMarre Carroll type deal that you eventually have to attach picks too, to move off of? I don’t think so. I don’t see much of a scenario where he isn’t at least some sort of asset.
Trent Jr. has made real strides. We’re talking about a player whose drives used to never materialize into anything inside the free throw line, who has started to take the extra dribble, shoot 53-percent in that accessible 4-14 foot range, and he’s drawing way more fouls. It might not be rapid, but he finds a way to bob and weave downhill to his spots and make teams pay. They always over-pursue his movement beyond the three point line, so the lanes will always be there.
He took a smaller role to start the season. He graciously came off the bench when asked to. He exists in the role that is asked of him, whenever it’s asked of him. And still, he’s the Raptors second leading scorer because he’s fine tuned a lot of his off-ball scoring and gravity. The counting stats haven’t jumped much at all, but his offensive improvements are extremely meaningful and impressive.
He’s a good player. He has his warts defensively, but he can playmake on that end. HIs position and role rarely couples good offense and defense across the league anyway. If he wants to stay, you keep him.
Okay, now let’s make the case for why he should be traded.
He’s a good player, other teams want him, and if Bobby Webster & Masai Ujiri have shown a talent for anything? It’s winning trades.
The idea is that Trent Jr. isn’t going to provide enough playmaking or shooting to ever ascend past his current role. Particularly with his limitations as a playmaker, you can’t start loading up more possessions into his hands. Yes, teams respond to players who score the ball, but with Trent Jr. rarely creating those types of possessions, teams don’t have to defend as often in a team concept. Ideally, you want a player to possess the pass, drive, shoot options so teams have to respect a possession potentially branching into any number of options and that leads to breakdowns and a more harmonious offensive environment for teammates. Trent Jr. hasn’t shown a smidge of that type of creation. So, that 25M price tag might seem a bit rich for a player who will have a tough time ascending into the upper ranks of initiating an offense. Maybe there’s a team out there that believes he’s going to become that level of player, and they’ll pay big for it?
If you were a major cynic of his game, you could also make the case that the Raptors can cobble together a facsimile of his contributions with current players on the roster, and perhaps incoming talent in a trade. Have the Raptors created an environment where ‘GTJ’ is at his best on both ends, and they’re in position to take advantage of Trent Jr.’s value, while also being able to immediately provide some of his production? The offense is still statistically better with him off the court this season, even if that seems odd or counterintuitive.
Can the Raptors cobble together a facsimile of Jakob Poeltl (who is rumored to be a possible trade candidate for Trent Jr.), on this roster for example? I don’t think so. That specific trade definitely opens up questions about the teams direction, and all the debates that inevitably come afterwards. Poeltl also comes with an expiring contract as well – although you would hope the Raptors would have a handshake about those things prior to a trade. I do think that, that trade probably improves the Raptors in the short-term, if they’re searching for that type of thing. How much improvement? The future? Different questions.
We can also address the draft pick path. The Raptors have had two first round picks since the championship. Scottie Barnes and Malachi Flynn. Everything else has been in the latter half of the 2nd round, and an early 2nd in Christian Koloko. They missed on Flynn, to be sure, but Koloko came in the same stretch of the draft and he looks like a fairly big win for his draft slot. Barnes is a home run. If you can get decent draft pick(s) for Trent Jr., do you make another bet on Masai & Bobby, the organizations eye for talent? It could be wise.
Which side is more compelling? Did I miss anything? Let me know in the comments.
Have a blessed day.
