Previewing the Raptors-Bulls play-in game

The Toronto Raptors have officially limped their way through the regular season to qualify for the postseason. It was more a slog than a step forward, more a stumbling through a series of misfortunate events than a step forward. But now the game(s) are about to matter.

They’ve been mostly good since acquiring Jakob Poeltl, although there have been some extreme moments of letdown. That’s particularly been the case recently — and, hopefully, we can explain that by saying Toronto has mostly been aiming for a play-in spot anyway, and so there hasn’t been huge incentive to try hard. Hopefully. That’s not super convincing for a bunch of reasons, but it’s possible.

Some early caveats: I had planned for this to be much shorter than my usual comprehensive previews, such as my work season in preparation for the Toronto Raptors and Philadelphia 76ers. This season, Toronto is not playing a seven-game series with the Chicago Bulls, so I did not want to go into the same level of depth. Much of the detail in the past has been about adjustments, and though there can be in-game adjustments here, it can’t be to the same depth. And yet, this is as long as my usual ones for whole series. Whatever, I can’t stop myself. I need to be committed. Real caveat though: If the Raptors do happen to win, I reserve the right to not do this for the second play-in game, as the turnaround would be difficult for me. Please God save me from myself.

Injuries

Toronto has a pretty clean bill of health in the rotation, outside of Otto Porter jr. Siakam’s legs have seemed tired for a while now, and Gary Trent jr. is still working his way back from injury, but in general things are as good as they’ve been all season.

Outside of Lonzo Ball, who hasn’t played all year, the Bulls are in a pretty similar situation. Zach LaVine was held out recently for knee management, which was a bigger issue for him earlier in the year but has limited him much less recently. He exploded in March, and the Bulls have known their play-in fate for a while, so I doubt LaVine was held out for a real reason.

These are, more or less, two teams at their healthiest coming into the postseason.

The Basic Numbers

The Raptors and Bulls are remarkably similar teams in terms of season-long performance. Both are completely average on the season — and have been significantly better than that since the trade deadline. Their net ratings have been plus-3.4 for Toronto since that time period and plus-3.2 for Chicago, good for 10th and 11th in the league. Both have massively underperformed their expected win totals based on net rating, so models consider both teams stronger than their win-loss records or their seeds.

Both teams also have a few small areas of strength and many areas of weakness. Crucially, some of those areas intersect, providing the best hints we can find for the key battlegrounds upon which the game will be decided.

The Raptors force a lot of turnovers, and the Bulls don’t commit many turnovers. The Raptors snatch many offensive rebounds, and the Bulls don’t allow many offensive rebounds. Those two components, more than any others, should go a long way to determining the game. In many ways, they did in the regular-season series between the two teams.

Season Series Numbers

The Raptors did win the season series, though Toronto’s wins were close while the Bulls had a blowout in their lone win. That’s why the net rating is so close.

The two teams split a back-to-back in Toronto in early November, and there were plenty of mitigating factors. Pascal Siakam missed Toronto’s loss, and Zach LaVine missed Chicago’s. So, not a whole lot to take away; both teams look very different without their best players. Of course, that was before Toronto added Poeltl, so Toronto in particular looked different then.

When the two teams met in late February, both teams were much healthier, looking significantly like the two teams that will meet on Wednesday. The Raptors handled LaVine and DeMar DeRozan spectacularly, as O.G. Anunoby’s defense was maybe the most important component of the game. Plenty went wrong for Toronto, but it won mostly by playing hard. One hopes the same will be true in the play-in game, but it’s not necessarily a guarantee.

In general, the series has looked as Toronto has dictated. The Raptors pounded the glass and forced plenty of turnovers. Because Chicago’s defense is so stout, that didn’t end the game. But it gave the Raptors a huge edge — enough to overcome the efficiency gap that has plagued Toronto so devilishly this season.

Starter Matchup

Toronto

Chicago

This is very possibly, bordering on probably, wrong. If the Bulls want extra point-of-attack defense, Alex Caruso could start in place of Patrick Williams. Both are phenomenal defenders — for my money, the two best on the Bulls, and probably the two best after Anunoby in the series. (You could make a case for Caruso ahead of Anunoby.) Caruso is more usually the starter for Chicago, and there hasn’t been much indication that will change. (For what it’s worth, Bulls reporters have said Chicago is very open to starting Williams in place of Caruso. We’ll find out.)

But I am guessing Williams starts the game; he is the better shooter and gives Chicago more size to bang with Toronto’s plethora of forwards. I love Caruso as a defender, and Chicago hasn’t had a problem sticking him on all three of Siakam, Anunoby, and Barnes this year. Siakam scored pretty well in that matchup, though; Williams just makes defense more natural for Chicago. Caruso is best at the point of attack, dissuading drives, and gapping; Toronto doesn’t really do that a whole lot, and instead prefers to attack in the post. That’s where Williams might have a defensive advantage. Both, of course, will play plenty of minutes, but I’m leaning towards Williams. (Ultimately, if I was Chicago, I would start both in place of Beverley. That lineup has been very good, plus-8.0 per 100 possessions, and Caruso and Williams together have played ferocious defense. But that’s even less likely to happen in a singe-game series. Perhaps if it were a long series we could see it.)

Toronto’s current starters have a plus-minus differential per 100 possessions of plus-9.1. The offense and defense have both been good. It’s not the best high-minute lineup, but it’s a very good one. (Sixth-best among groups with its number of possessions or more.) Given Nurse’s propensity to play his starters big minutes, and the fact it’s an elimination game, I would expect the starters to play something like 20 or more minutes together. Virtually half the game.

Chicago’s starters (that I’m listing) have a plus-minus differential per 100 possessions of … negative-31.6. Lol. That’s the worst group in the league with so many possessions. With Caruso in place of Williams it’s plus-12.9. I still think Williams starts because of the specific matchup against Toronto, but just about everything has gone wrong with Williams starting in place of Caruso. The minute total isn’t quite enough to say it’s a bad lineup, but it’s not a trivial minute total, either. Tough decisions for the Bulls. Significantly, Toronto could have an edge in either case: either Caruso starts, and Toronto has a big size advantage on the glass and in the post. Or Williams starts and the Bulls promise at least 10 minutes in an elimination game to a lineup that has been poor. The fact of the matter though is that Chicago doesn’t have both successful and gigantic lineups — Toronto does. That will be a boon for the Raptors.

Let’s look at some individual matchups, starting with the Raptors on offense.

One major takeaway here has to be that the Bulls like to play straight up, and they had a lot of success against Toronto doing so. They guard across their positions with relatively little switching. (They are average in frequency of switching on-ball actions, but they are well below average switching off-ball stuff, and that’s often where the meat of a switching defense lies.)

When they do switch defensive screens, they give up the lowest efficiency on those possessions of any team in the league. They switch selectively rather than a matter of course, but even their stars without defensive reputations have been stout this year. The reason why they’re so effective when switching is because they mostly switch on ball only if Williams, Caruso, or Ayo Dosunmu (also a capable defender) are involved, as ways of weaponizing their best defenders, and Vucevic especially does little switching. That’s self-selecting excellence, only letting your best defenders switch. Still, when LaVine and DeRozan have been targeted as the screener defenders, they’ve held up very well.

There have been some weaknesses when opposing teams go out of their way to derail the offense and attack the switched stars in static plays. Most teams (not the Raptors) don’t willingly bog down their offense like that in the regular season. DeRozan has held up very well in isolation all year but been less solid in the post, where a quick jab step can get to the rim before help arrives. Anunoby got him there a couple times in the season series. LaVine has held up well in the post but been less able to move his feet in isolation. The Raptors love the post and isolation, so expect to see plenty of picks with LaVine or DeRozan as the screener defender. If they switch, Toronto will slow down and attack. If they don’t, Toronto will try to get downhill with one of the wing stars protecting the rim. (That’s not as easy as it seems against the Bulls, and more on that later.) But it’s possible Chicago only held up so well on switches in the regular season is because it was the regular season.

Despite those opportunities for success, no Raptor really exploded in the season series. Toronto didn’t push to force many switches, and outside of Poeltl on Vucevic and Barnes on Williams, no one really dominated his matchup. Poeltl and Gary Trent jr. are the only Raptors who had even moderately high true shooting percentages against the Bulls in the regular season. Most Raptors shot below their averages.

Things have been very different with the Raptors on defense.

Toronto has switched much more 1-4 while on defense, and the defensive possessions are much more spread across the positional spectrum (outside of Anunoby guarding DeRozan). What has been similar though is that only the bigs have been particularly efficient in any matchups. Vucevic especially torched Toronto with a preposterous true shooting percentage of 67.6 across three games. LaVine and DeRozan were similarly efficient, but Toronto did phenomenally well to depress their attempts by playing physically off ball to limit their touches. DeRozan attempted only 26 shots in three games — Anunoby is just a monster at not only forcing misses but just making sure guys aren’t able to shoot. He’s such a weapon, it’s crazy.

VanVleet will surely start on LaVine, but he got going in that matchup here and there. LaVine is such a rise-up shooter, it might make more sense to show him size with Barnes at points to try to limit his stepback and force him towards help. No matter who starts, Chicago will always have places defensive players can hide. Beverly, Williams, and Caruso (if he starts) will all be targets Toronto asks to prove everything on offense. Caruso couldn’t buy a bucket in the season series, as Toronto freely let him shoot. (He countered by getting downhill as a screener and making short-roll plays — his passing hurt Toronto in both Chicago losses, as he totaled 17 assists in those two games.)

Toronto will probably start with Barnes and Siakam on the less proven offensive players, as they are dangerous making defensive plays recovering in space to gather steals or helping at the rim for blocks. But because Toronto will switch so willingly, even on off-ball screens, everyone will see time everywhere (except Poeltl). And if anyone is getting torched at the point of attack, it’s easy enough to hide them on Beverley.

Ultimately, Toronto will have more areas to prove. Chicago has a better defense, but it also has more weak spots in its defense. If the Raptors can force switches and then beat DeRozan or LaVine to the rim before help arrives, that’s easy offense. Whereas if Chicago grinds down to isolation play, Toronto will be sending help as soon as the ballhandler’s back turns and forcing turnovers. The starter matchup should be an advantage for Toronto.

So matchups-wise, this is what we have:

Toronto on defense:

Toronto on offense:

If that is the case, there will be a touch of cross-matching at the guard spots, which will give a tiny bit of a boost to transition offense. (Good for Toronto.) If Chicago chooses not to cross-match, that means VanVleet will have a lesser defender on him when he initiates in pick and roll (good), and Barnes will be able to post up Chicago’s smaller defender (also good). Size will be a real issue for Chicago, and whether DeRozan guards Anunoby or Barnes (in the most recent game, with both teams close to healthy, he split his time on them), Toronto should really look to test him in the post.

Some other notes:

• The Bulls have not had an effective and high-volume rim protector. Vucevic has contested 7.7 shots per game from within 6 feet — that’s a huge number, eighth-most in the league (and ahead of Poeltl). But opponents shoot 65.4 percent from within that range with Vucevic contesting. Poeltl, as a point of comparison, holds opponents to 60.4 percent. Williams is better at forcing misses but has fewer contests. If the Raptors get to the rim, there could be paydirt there.
  • It’s not easy to get downhill against the Bulls — they are above average both at limiting drives and at keeping them inefficient. That is almost entirely due to Caruso. It’s hard to say entirely because, well, there’s five defenders on the court at once, but Caruso is the only high-minute player with a negative defensive on/off (that’s crazy), and is ranked first in the league on defense by most catch-all metrics. He’s insane. He’s maybe at his best gapping someone else’s drive, forcing a kickout to his man, and then recovering to force a reset. He leads the leads in deflections per 100 possessions. He’s strong and quick and basically forces offenses to go around him. Why are the Bulls a top-five defense? Look no further than Caruso. There’s no other reason they should be so good limiting drives, but Caruso might be doing it all on his own.
    • Where they aren’t great at limiting downhill drives is in closeout situations when they run shooters off the line. Anunoby could have a big game, especially driving baseline, where Caruso should be no where to be found. As Toronto’s resident walking paint touch, he needs to be his best self on offense for the Raptors to break this Chicago defense.
• I don’t think Chicago will use much zone against Toronto, at least not with the starters on the floor. Toronto has actually been average at beating the zone this season, and Chicago doesn’t really use zone defenses. Perhaps that changes when the Raptors don’t have Poeltl on the floor as an easy zone beater with flips and hooks, but I doubt it factors into the game.
• The most explosive scorer in the series is undoubtedly LaVine. Toronto did well bottling his shot attempts in the series, but he still made the ones he took.
  • LaVine cooked Toronto in isolation, but he rarely did it. Interestingly, the Raptors didn’t opt to double him once when he isolated, but I expect if he gets hot that will be a pretty early adjustment for Nurse. The Bulls don’t have a ton of shooting when LaVine is the one getting rid of the ball (and he’s not the best relocator), so the punishment for doubling shouldn’t be too drastic.
  • Toronto played fairly conservatively on LaVine cuts. There was a lot of drop on half-speed pindowns, and a couple switches here and there. VanVleet didn’t try to jam his cuts too often, nor did Toronto try creative deny defenses like top-locking or the like. For Chicago to minimize turnovers and maximize LaVine’s touches and scoring opportunities, LaVine might have to cut with much more force to create reactions from Toronto’s defense before he touches the ball. The trump card will be to move Anunoby onto LaVine and one of Barnes or Siakam onto DeRozan, but I don’t expect Toronto to do that unless it has to. Limiting DeRozan is too important to stymieing everyone else on the Bulls, as he is the main initiator.
  • The Raptors mostly played conservatively on LaVine picks. They chased him over screens and mostly dropped the screener defender a touch, but not too low. They limited switches and didn’t blitz at all. Basically, the Raptors still have all the bullets in the chamber for creative defenses to throw at LaVine. He hasn’t seen complex stuff from Toronto this season.
• Vucevic could give Toronto absolute fits. He finished fourth among centers in made triples this year, and his stroke is gorgeous. There aren’t a lot of true stretch centers in the league, still, but he’s one of them. Toronto desperately needs Poeltl involved in actions to keep its defensive structure intact, and if Chicago simply keeps him above the break guarding Vucevic, it could force Toronto into some sticky situations.
  • One answer could be for Toronto to play some zone principles, or to just play zone, to answer Vucevic popping. Poeltl could stick in the paint to clog the lane and rebound, and Toronto could keep everyone where he belongs. But in an elimination game, you can’t count on that. And even if Toronto does use zone to limit Vucevic’s spacing, it would only happen after he already hurt them. It’s really tough to plan for these things.
  • The Raptors were not good at defending pops in the pick and roll after acquiring Poeltl. It changes their shell too much.
• LaVine and DeRozan are two of the most dynamic and efficient drivers in the league. Both are shooting over 54 percent on drives — no rotation Raptor is shooting even 50 percent. If Toronto’s point-of-attack defense falters, not even Poeltl will be able to save them. Toronto needs to be able to do what it did in the regular season — force the ball out of their hands and keep the play moving elsewhere. If LaVine and DeRozan get downhill, Toronto’s defense will have a lot of trouble staying intact.
• Toronto is going to roam off of lots of Chicago’s shooters. (Not the great ones.) Barnes will cheat off Beverley, Siakam off Williams (or especially Caruso when they match up), and Anunoby off DeRozan. Those are Toronto’s longest defenders in the starting lineup, and if they get an extra foot of space to stand in gaps and pick off skip passes, that will be huge for Toronto’s defense holding up and leading to fastbreak baskets. If Beverley especially hits some early triples, that could really bottle Toronto’s offense for the rest of the game, forcing the defense to be more conservative off-ball and less able to spark transition points. Beverley shot 1-of-4 from deep in his only game against Toronto as a Bull this year, which Chicago lost. His shooting will be a really crucial hinge upon which both sides of the game could turn.
  • And if the Bulls start Caruso, I could see some possessions with Poeltl guarding him and just living in the paint.

The Bench

Toronto seems to have another advantage here from a talent and athleticism standpoint, even if that hasn’t played out in the numbers. Even though the Raptors’ bench hasn’t been a huge strength this season, it could be better in a game with both teams playing starters heavy minutes. I am not sure Nick Nurse goes deeper than eight, and Trent, Chris Boucher, and Precious Achiuwa is a pretty solid bench rotation. Trent is probably the most capable bench scorer on either team, and Boucher and Achiuwa can change the texture of a game with their athleticism and energy.

Of course, that’s not guaranteed — Toronto has laid plenty of eggs with its bench all year. But Trent, Boucher, and Achiuwa have a high ceiling. If the Raptors want a proper center backing up Poeltl, Christian Koloko could factor in as well. He’s been very playable all year, and I wouldn’t be upset to see him get real minutes in a game that matters. It would cap out at five minutes or so, but Toronto could use him as a fastball on the defensive end and hope it can buy enough buckets in transition to make the offense not matter.

Chicago has more playable bench options, if not with as high ceilings. Coby White is a gunner who can get hot and hit some triples. Dosunmu is a nice, two-way guard. Andre Drummond remains an elite rebounder. And Caruso could be the best two-way player coming off either bench.

The Raptors were the second-best team in the league with four starters on the floor (which is juiced by starting a subpar starting group most of the season that improved as soon as one of the starters went to the bench). The Bulls were at their best with two starters (fourth-highest net rating) or one starter (highest net rating). DeRozan, especially, was phenomenal propping up no-LaVine groups, alongside two high-activity guards like Caruso, Dosunmu, White, or Beverley.

Considering those deep-transitional moments have been some of Toronto’s biggest weaknesses on the season, Chicago should have big advantages towards the beginning and middle of the second and fourth quarters. Indeed, Chicago’s winningest stretches of the game were to end the first and third quarters. If DeRozan is able to prop up bench units and lead a quick 8-2 run with two of Siakam, Barnes, Anunoby, and VanVleet on the bench, that would go a long way towards Chicago taking control of the game.

Both teams keep their identities with bench players in the game. For Toronto, Boucher and Achiuwa are energy players who attack the offensive glass, run in transition, and make their bones as towards-the-rim cutters and finishers. That’s how Toronto wants to play anyway. Trent can sometimes change the texture of the offense by shifting to more of an away-from-the-rim cutting-oriented system, but he’s also used as a spot-up shooter to complement the stars. He’ll run a few actions, but generally not many.

Chicago has much the same thing going on. At least one of DeRozan or LaVine is on the floor for virtually every moment (that matters), but they aren’t as ball dominant as Siakam and VanVleet are for Toronto. (In fact, they average almost 20 fewer touches per game than either of Toronto’s leaders.) Neither, however, averages the most touches on Chicago. Vucevic has that distinction, as he initiates many possessions with the ball above the break as the action develops around him. He makes good, quick decisions. (Think Marc Gasol in Toronto a few years ago.) He receives lots of touches in the post and as the pick-and-roll roller, too. The offense is built around those three. The guards are all capable of running actions of their own, even bench guards like White, but they’re all in complementary roles. Chicago has a well-established hierarchy.

Offensive and Defensive Style

There’s obviously a lot of bleed-in from other sections here, so I’ll try to keep this relatively brief.

The Bulls are more of a traditional high-pick-and-roll team than the Raptors. LaVine and DeRozan trade the touches there, initiate plays, and get to their spots. LaVine likes to pull up from deep over the screen (he’s having a down year there at only 34.2 percent on pull-up triples, after a down year last year too, but he was basically between 36-39 percent from 2018-2021), while DeRozan likes to get into the midrange and bait free throws. Both are elite — DeRozan is ninth in pick-and-roll handler possessions used per game, scoring an absurd 1.06 points per possession while LaVine is 15th, scoring a still-well-above-average 0.93 points per possession. As a result, they’re third as a team in possessions finished by the pick-and-roll handler and ninth in efficiency. Really elite stuff. (The Raptors, as a point of comparison, are below average in possessions finished and near the bottom in efficiency.)

The Bulls are also second in possessions used by the pick-and-roll screener. They’re below average in efficiency there — poppers are almost always less efficient as finishers than rollers, and Vucevic pops at a top-five frequency in the league. But what they sacrifice in efficiency in plays used by the roller, they gain in plays used by the handler; for every pick-and-roll possession Vucevic finishes with a triple, that’s an extra inch of space DeRozan has to dance in the midrange the next time the team runs the same set.

LaVine and DeRozan are a masterful one-two punch; with either elite initiating the play, the other is fantastic at attacking a shifted defense from the second side. That’s really the most important component of Chicago’s offense; most flows from the pick-and-roll attack.

The Bulls don’t really isolate all that much, even though it’s a specialty of both DeRozan and LaVine, and they are the most efficient team at it. They play slow and rarely get into transition — where, again, they’re a top-10 team in efficiency. They do post up quite a bit — both DeRozan and Vucevic — and are the second-best team in that play type. Even if the Bulls’ overall offensive numbers don’t reflect it, they are very good at slow, grinding offense.

Chicago has the ninth-most efficient half-court offense when excluding offensive rebounding (the Bulls do not offensive rebound). They’re slow, and they are low in potential assists and what share of passes end up as assists. All of that might translate well to the playoffs, but will it translate to the play-in? It’s hard to say. Honestly, this is my first time covering a play-in game with this level of depth, and I just have no idea where it falls between the regular season and the playoffs. We’ll find out.

Defensively, Chicago is solid. They generally veer away from switching or blitzing or rotating, and they trust the shell to remain intact. The area in which they might be weakest is significant; they are a weaker team defending the pick and roll. They play mostly their screeners at the level or slightly lower in picks and chase over, with sending a lot of tagging pressure from the corners. Whether that’s because they don’t have the personnel to do anything else (they don’t, at least not with Vucevic on the floor) or because it’s their best option (it probably is) is unclear and not mutually exclusive anyway. VanVleet and Poeltl in pick and roll will be more crucial than ever for Toronto.

As a result of its structural competence and commitment to team defense, Chicago is excellent at defending static isolation plays like isolations. Toronto will need to force rotations or its offensive punch might dwindle to nothing.

Offensively, the Raptors are not what they were a few months ago. They are actually a lower-frequency isolation team, opting to spend much more time in pick and roll and handoff. VanVleet is now the most important offensive initiator on the team. They still spend a boatload of time in the post, letting all three of Siakam, Anunoby, and Barnes spend plenty of possessions with their backs to the basket. Poeltl will also spend time attacking switches in the post, and he’s been absolutely deadly in such situations.

The Raptors have some pet sets they like to run, including Horns Flex (Poeltl lobs to Anunoby!). They run a fair amount of Chicago action (like everyone else — except for the Bulls, who run basically none. That doesn’t make sense to me, as I think LaVine would benefit from touches coming out of Chicago, but whatever), and it’s a great way to get creators like VanVleet and Barnes heading downhill. They love to short roll their picks, particularly as a way to let Poeltl flash his unique finishing and his playmaking chops. He is one of the highest-volume and highest-efficiency short rollers in the league.

The halfcourt offense for Toronto improved as the year went on, ending up in 12th (when you include offensive rebounds and 25th when you don’t, haha). It wasn’t ideal, and Siakam’s falling off of his early-season All-NBA pace hurt a lot. But it was very passable.

Defensively, the Raptors throw the book at their opponents and then the pen and then the printing press and the printer and the town he grew up in. No team does more stuff on the defensive end, for better or for worse. Their base package … doesn’t really exist, as they like to have vastly different gameplans based on the opposing team’s star. That’s a good thing in the playoffs. Is it good in the play-in? I honestly don’t know.

Toronto sacrifices a whole lot to try to force turnovers (and the Bulls are pretty solid at not turning over the ball, so that will be an important component), including efficient shots. (That gamble has gone Toronto’s way a little more frequently with Poeltl in town.) They don’t switch on ball as much as analysts think they do, and they don’t blitz all that much unless facing players like Trae Young or Luka Doncic. But they have it in the bag, and if LaVine gets hot, the Raptors could easily start blitzing him to force others to make decisions. I expect the Raptors will start out by switching 1-4 on and off ball but not letting Poeltl switch away from Vucevic unless it’s an extreme late-clock situation.

Prediction

Oh boy. Predicting a single-elimination game seems like a fool’s errand. Toronto seems like the better team, with a better starting lineup and more versatility. That matters much more over a longer series, though. Chicago is probably better in a slow, grinding pace where possessions start in the half court and are finished after one shot. That, too, probably matters more over a longer series. Chicago probably has foundational tactics that should port better to the matchup. (Again, matters more over a longer series.)

One of the most important factors for a single-game elimination has to be pure shot-making. Chicago has Toronto beat there by a pretty wide margin; if LaVine gets hot, Toronto can’t really punch with him. Even if the Raptors are favourites, it can’t be by too wide a margin purely on that basis. But ultimately, the regular season is probably more predictive for a play-in game than it would be for a long series. And Toronto won that 2-1. There are a number of swing components that should indicate how the game might go, and most of them happened over the regular season, too:

• Toronto won the possession game by a wide margin. (Big for Toronto)
  • Toronto didn’t get its transition game online. (Big for Chicago)
• Chicago won the efficiency game by a wide margin. (Big for Chicago)
• Toronto forced the ball out of LaVine and DeRozan’s hands. (Big for Toronto)
• Chicago bottled VanVleet and Siakam. (Big for Chicago)
• Chicago shot okay from 3, but not great. (Big for Toronto)

That was all the case in the one game that is most predictive, on February 28, with both teams healthy and Poeltl a Raptor. Toronto won that game, not easily, but it wasn’t like it overtaxed them, either.

So with all that in mind, Toronto does have to be the favourite. (Betting markets and predictive models like FiveThirtyEight’s agree.) It can’t be by a massive margin though. If I had to give odds to it, I would say 60 percent chance, give or take, that the Raptors win. Which, if you compare to the lines given to betting markets, is actually higher on Chicago than you can find elsewhere. I guess that’s what you get when you watch the Raptors so closely all year. They have not proven to be a team this year that can win on command. Most of the games this year that Toronto saw as “measuring stick” games or “must win” games were lost — many with little effort from Toronto’s roster. It’s hard to expect them to be reliable now. But at least the numbers and comparative strategy and film say they should be favourites. So favourites they must be.