We constantly make strange, apples-for-oranges trades in our lives. We work jobs we don’t like for sweet, taco-buying cash. We trade awkward dates for awkward nights. We trade our time for everything. The exchange rate, for all of the above, is always in flux.
The Raptors are in the midst of making a very specific trade of their own: the entire 2023-24 season for Scottie Barnes’ development. What is a fair trade when it comes to the swap of time for a physical object? It’s almost impossible to say.
Scottie Barnes is turning into everything the most ambitious Toronto Raptors’ fan could have imagined, and more. This is what future stardom looks like — heck, this is what present stardom looks like. Barnes has gotten better at virtually everything on the basketball court.
Let’s start with the jumper. Barnes is averaging 38.1 percent from deep, which is an enormously beneficial prospect. It takes a long time to change how defenses view you in the NBA (at least, positively — defenses can react very quickly when you start missing). But Barnes is starting to draw closeouts, giving him easier paths to the rim. He’s drawing full or fly-by closeouts more than ever, and the Raptors are scoring more efficiently on those closeouts than ever before — 1.068 points per chance this season after never cracking 1.0 before. Compared to the rest of the league, he jumped from around 38th percentile on efficiency on such plays last year to 73rd percentile this year. That mirrors his jump from below average to above it on the jumper, too.
He’s added more than 4.0 drives per 100 possessions to his diet, and once again the Raptors are scoring more efficiently on his drives than ever before. He’s shooting the highest percentage of his career on drives.
But it’s not just his own scoring. He is dominating as a creator, as the point guard that the Raptors envisioned him becoming when they drafted him.
The Raptors are scoring 1.064 points per chance on a Barnes-run pick and roll, the best mark of his career and on the highest volume. That he would reach that level of achievement was doubtful before the year. As a point of comparison, that 1.064 points per chance ranks 14th out of 90 players to have run at least 200 picks this year — directly behind Devin Booker and ahead of Steph Curry. So, yeah: He’s been good.
(As an aside, that he has only run 274 picks this season, 69th-most in the league, is criminal. He should be running double that, or more. He’s thriving while still with one training wheel on the bike. The Raptors need to turn the whole show over to Barnes and see what it looks like.)
He’s been reaching the paint with more frequency and has created more space for his passing. He’s turning corners, which I thought might be the case way back in preseason. He’s shooting better on the move and creating more shots on the move, rather than turning his back to bully his drives to the rim. (Which he still does on some drives, but just with less frequency.) All this flows from his jumper, which is actually drawing respect. The whole thing is working in concert. He’s even more efficient when he’s receiving handoffs, able to attack in motion, often from the second side. (Actually, he’s the fifth-most efficient player in the league there, but that’s another piece for another day.)
All this to say: His usage is up, which has resulted in more scoring, of course. But he’s also been significantly more efficient. This isn’t just more touches. This is a player who’s improved across the board and is using his touches in better ways. This is real skill development, not just opportunity development. He’s become the exact point-forward-post-pick-handoff-spacer that the most lunatic scout might have dreamed.
And the defense! My god, the defense! Barnes went from a defensive neutral — with high highs and low lows — to an immense positive. The Raptors have switched his role to spending more time as the low man, particularly helping around the rim. He’s also stood up some centers, even if he didn’t hold up against Nikola Jokic recently. And he’s been much, much better when guarding guards, outside of a few lapses in individual matchups. As a result, he’s had some enormous games. He spent lots of time guarding both Kevin Durant and Booker while the Raptors beat the Suns last month, and he held both far below their season-long shooting numbers. He’s blocking shots and stealing the ball at career high rates, ranking within the top 20 for both. He’s switchable, able to play in multiple schemes at multiple positions. And he shrinks the court and makes stuff happen the whole time. He’s probably been just as effective on the defensive end this season as he has on the offensive.
This is what stardom looks like. Barnes is playing like one of the best handful of players in the NBA already, and there’s room for more. There’s no certainty that his jumper holds up at this rate, but he’s put together a pretty consistent stretch that’s lasting longer and longer. And the rest of what he’s doing seems pretty replicable. Maybe the defense goes at some point, but he’s playing fantastic defense on a team that’s falling apart on that end. Context is not helping him. (On either end.)
So it’s not unreasonable to think that he can be a whole lot better than this.
If I told you before the season that Barnes takes a star turn, adds a jumper, gets to the rim, and starts to dominate with the ball in his hands, I’m sure (most of) you would have accepted a losing record in exchange for those results. Even a very losing record. Even bad, lifeless, identity-less losses.
But then you had to watch bad, lifeless, identity-less losses. The Raptors are 11-16, 24th on offense and 15th on defense. It’s been difficult to watch, and the defense is just getting worse and worse. Toronto has the 18th-ranked transition defense despite having a roster built to thrive there. Would you still take the trade now? Masai Ujiri said last year was tough to watch, and outside of Barnes looking like a future megastar, this year has been tougher to watch to this point. The trade deadline is really the only thing the team is waiting for at this point, and many games, the players play like they are aware of that.
If Barnes continues at this rate, the Raptors will have what they dreamed of. Barnes could dethrone Kyle Lowry as the greatest Raptor of all time — but I’m getting ahead of myself. A lot has to happen first. Then again, what else is there to enjoy this season? We know what the purpose is, the payoff. It doesn’t mean we have to enjoy watching the team struggle to get there. Logically, I’m sure almost every Raptors fan would trade this season for Barnes becoming this. But fandom isn’t always defined by logic.
