When it comes to draftees, signees, trade-ees (?), in the post-championship era Scottie Barnes is the shining beacon of success. When it comes to anything Raptors, really, Barnes is a shining beacon of success. In what is currently an immense 3rd year leap — which is somewhat of a hallmark for star wings — Barnes has improved on both sides of the floor. More specifically, he’s better on defense in a new role that allows him to playmake more often; he’s better in transition, because he’s always been great in transition he just handles the ball more now, and he’s a better scorer in the halfcourt.
Let’s dive in on that last one.
Historically, Barnes has scored in the halfcourt through cuts, isolations, offensive rebounds, and some post-ups. The pick n’ roll has improved immensely this season after being something he struggled with previously, and overall Barnes doesn’t typically break defenses open with a live dribble in the halfcourt. Chalk that up to not enough reps and team support, not enough aggressiveness, not enough on ball skill for a time – whatever you want really, it’s your journey. The point is Barnes has been, for the most part, using brute physicality and immense touch on push shots to score when the game slows down.
This season? Barnes’ on-ball actions have improved, but most importantly, he’s become the Raptors second best shooter. That’s not hyperbole either. To quote Norm Macdonald: “It’s a matter of public record.” You can get into the weeds of gravity, spacing, cause and effect etc., and try and categorize the shooters differently based on importance, if you’d like. However, Barnes is second on the Raptors in 3-pointers made per game, 3-pointers taken per game – trailing OG Anunoby in both, and tying him in 3-point percentage. In fact, Barnes at 39.4% and Anunoby at 39.4% are leaps and bounds ahead of the rest of the roster. Among those who have attempted more than 20 threes, no one else is clearing 36-percent.
“It’s a jump we see sometimes. Not usually this big, though.” An Eastern Conference scout told me. “And most people wouldn’t have expected it to be him who made this jump. What’s clear is that he’s made mechanical changes and made a huge step as a shooter. The draft is the draft, but a lot of NBA stardom is guys elevating their game while they’re in the NBA, like he did, and you don’t get there without work. Credit to Scottie.”
The jump in reference? Barnes had taken 417 3-point shots over his first two seasons and hit 29-percent of them. He was one of the worst 3-point shooters in the league relative to his volume, and over his last 127 attempts he’s shooting 39-percent. Not only is he shooting 39-percent overall, but he’s incorporated a healthy amount of pullups into his shot diet (over 1 attempt per game), where he’s shooting over 33-percent on them – which is actually a really strong mark. More important than everything, though? Barnes is shooting over 40-percent on above-the-break threes.
Everyone loves corner threes, and it’s good to hit your shots from there, but it doesn’t matter that Barnes’ corner jumpers are going in at a career low rate. The corner three is the easiest three to hit, statistically, but it’s also the easiest 3-point shot to take away. Becoming a strong ATB 3-point shooter not only allows Barnes more control over his volume from downtown, but it also allows him to be positioned ATB in actions where he can shoot, or provide help as a secondary creator. In the future, if Barnes can eventually draw hard closeouts he can drive middle, which is more valuable than driving baseline.
On top of all that, Barnes becoming a threat ATB means that the Raptors will have more flexibility structuring offense or teambuilding in the future, because Barnes taking and making the more difficult threes, means the Raptors can succeed with more limited players around him. An easy example would be an elite defender who can only space to the corner on offense is suddenly more viable to Barnes because of his ATB shooting. Outside of being a guy who bangs pull-up triples all game, Barnes is hitting the most important 3-pointers on the floor.
“Some guys just have it. They’ll figure it out. He seems like that type of guy.” A Western Conference scout told me. “I look at his jumper and see less dip, a quicker release, and a better flow from bottom to top. He’s cleaned things up. I also don’t look at those mechanics and think 40% on high volume, but he has an uncanny ability to throw the ball in the hoop. Like I said, he seems like that type of guy.”
Of course jumpers don’t only exist beyond the arc, there’s a lot of room to hit them in the mid-range, where Barnes has been sublime. From 14-feet and out, Barnes has hit 55-percent on his jumpers (21-38), and inside the arc his pull-up jumper has been falling in at 48-percent. Some of these have come against dropping bigs in the pick and roll, some of them as a short-roller, and some in isolation. It’s been a tidy little release valve for him.
This improvement from Barnes, at the very least, takes a handful of possessions every single game and turns them into points. Those possessions, if they had come in the past, wouldn’t have been much of anything for Barnes. That’s why we’re seeing a big jump in points per game, true shooting percentage, and halfcourt potency. The next step, of course, is for these numbers to stabilize over a large sample; for NBA teams to change the scouting report, and for Barnes to eviscerate teams that are more eager to give him aggressive closeouts. All in due time.
Have a blessed day.
