The following is a guest article by Ryan Grosman. You can follow him on twitter here.
There’s a scene in the film Apollo 13 where the space shuttle’s oxygen tank explodes, putting the three astronauts in grave danger. And the only way to fix it is to fit a square cartridge into a round cartridge using nothing but the miscellaneous parts found on the shuttle.
At the NASA space centre, the lead engineer pours out all the various mismatching parts onto the table and challenges his team to find a solution.
This scene encapsulates last year’s disastrous Toronto Raptors season. President Masai Ujiri and the front office challenged then-head coach Nick Nurse to construct an effective, winning offence using nothing but the mismatching, ill-fitting parts that they gave him.
As the season went along, it didn’t take a rocket scientist to see that the roster was poorly constructed. There was a lack of 3-point shooting, half-court offence and shot creation options – all vital in today’s NBA. And far too much sameness and overlapping skill sets (or lack of skill sets). To make matters worse, the Raptors also had some of the worst depth in the NBA. A bench that could be relied upon as much as a t-shirt in a blizzard.
To combat the lack of outside shooting and half-court offence, Nurse’s strategy was to win the possession battle. Crash the boards. Force turnovers to ignite the transition offence. Increase the number of possessions. And to combat the lack of depth, he played his best players for extended minutes.
Even though the Raptors lapped the entire league in possessions, the larger problem still remained. They couldn’t score. So what good were all of those extra possessions if they couldn’t put the ball in the basket?
After Masai Ujiri said he did not enjoy watching this team play, he went out and changed…very little to the roster. At least at first.
Under new head coach Darko Rajaković, the team still had issues shooting from beyond the arc. The playmaking and half-court offence remained suspect. The depth was still nonexistent. And there were still a lot of overlapping skill sets.
The parts still did not fit. And it showed.
Heading into Detroit on December 30th for an inevitable matchup with the 2-29 Pistons who were on a 28-game losing streak, the Raptors were 12-19. They were sitting (uncomfortably) 12th in the East and outside of a play-in spot. They lost to the likes of the Hornets, Blazers and Bulls. And they blew a 17-point lead at home to the Jazz. In other words, they were barreling towards another lost season (that is, besides the further development of Barnes).
Something needed to be done. And then, boom. It happened. When we least expected it.
Trading OG Anunoby, Precious Achiuwa and Malachi Flynn to the New York Knicks for RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley provided the Raptors with more ball handlers, more scoring options and more diverse skill sets. Quickley especially addresses a lot of the team’s shot creation, three-point shooting and floor spacing needs.
The trade with the Knicks was warranted and necessary to help balance the Raptors’ roster. But it’s still not entirely clear which direction the front office is going. The question on everyone’s mind is, what will they do next? Will they trade Pascal Siakam and blow it up or stay the course? Blowing it up is not the answer. Retooling around Siakam and Scottie Barnes while remaining competitive is.
In Adrian Wojnarowski’s story breaking down the Raptors-Knicks trade, he indicated that “Toronto is expected to continue to explore trades involving forward Pascal Siakam, but there are no deals with traction for him now, sources said.”
In a recent story for ESPN, Tim Bontemps was a lot more definitive, saying that “League sources expect Toronto to move on from two-time All-Star forward Pascal Siakam before the trade deadline.” So the Anunoby deal may just be the first sneaker to drop.
Of course, hearing Siakam’s name in trade rumours is as shocking as being told that water is wet. It’s been a staple of every offseason and trade deadline for the last couple years, including a flurry of trade speculation heading into the season. Toronto and Sacramento were dance partners for approximately 90 minutes just the other night.
But here’s why trading Siakam now is the wrong way to go and why the team should continue to retool around Siakam and Barnes rather than blow it up.
(1) Let’s see how this team performs
It’s still early. The trade deadline isn’t until February 8th. There’s still time to see how the team fairs with a more balanced roster featuring Quickley and Barrett. In the few games since the trade, it’s been so far, so fun. Maybe this team will actually be good, and we’d never know if it blew up right away.
(2) The post-Siakam Raptors may be bad, but they wouldn’t be bad enough
If the Raptors trade Siakam and try to tank, they still likely won’t catch the really, really bad teams. We’re talking the Pistons, Spurs, Wizards, Hornets and Trail Blazers.
According to ESPN’s win projections, of these five teams, the Hornets are projected to finish at the “top” with a record of 23-59. At the time of writing, the Raptors are 14-20. That means, in order to finish a game below the Hornets, the Raptors would have to go 8-40 the rest of the way.
And since the Raptors owe a 2024 top-six protected pick to the Spurs, they’re better off letting the pick convey to the Spurs in what is heralded to be a weak draft class. This will also give the Raptors full control over their first-round picks going forward.
(3) It’s time to stop talking about timelines
You know that whole Siakam-isn’t-on-Barnes’-timeline-and-therefore-should-be-traded argument? Well, it has never made sense to me. Why would a two-time All-NBA, play-making forward with championship experience who’s still in his prime be less valuable to his team because he’s seven years older than the up-and-coming star?
Also, plenty of teams have had key players with huge age disparities who’ve thrived together and won championships. Was Kyrie Irving on LeBron James’ supposed timeline during the Cleveland Cavaliers’ dominance? Was David Robinson on Tim Duncan’s supposed timeline for their two championships with the Spurs? Was Kyle Lowry on Siakam’s supposed timeline when they won the chip in 2019?
Good teams always have young players and veteran players contributing; it’s actually a requirement when it comes to fitting talent within the allowable cap space.
(4) It’s likely too late to trade Siakam for what he’s worth
With Siakam on an expiring contract, the Raptors likely won’t get full value for him if they trade him now. That is, unless a super desperate team sees him as the final piece to the championship puzzle or the acquiring team is 100% assured they’ll be able to sign him in free agency.
That’s because, according to Marc Stein in his recent story about the Raptors-Knicks trade, “Any team that trades for Siakam before the Feb. 8 buzzer…can only offer him a two-year extension. Word is Siakam, if he’s dealt, is unlikely to sign off on a two-year extension and would prefer, again, to proceed to unrestricted free agency…meaning that any team that trades for him now must be daring enough to roll those dice.”
A developing team that isn’t good yet might not want Siakam without assurance of his remaining. And a contending team that wants Siakam might not have the young players or draft picks the Raptors would demand. As such, his current status isn’t helping to facilitate a trade.
(5) Teams tank with the hopes of drafting a player like Siakam
Surefire franchise-altering players like LeBron James or Tim Duncan (and possibly Victor Wembanyama) don’t come around too often in the draft. If you’re a tanking team, the best you can realistically hope for is drafting an All-NBA type player.
The Raptors already have that player in Siakam (with Barnes potentially on his way). It’s very possible that the team could tank and never end up drafting someone as good as Siakam.
Look at the top-five selections in the last five drafts. How many are realistically better than Siakam right now? Anthony Edwards and Ja Morant. Maybe Scottie Barnes. And Chet Holmgren a few years from now. You could argue a few more, maybe. But drafting a player equal to Siakam, even with a top-five pick, is far from a sure thing.
(6) The Raptors are going to want to keep Barnes happy
You can trade Anunoby. You can then trade Siakam. You can choose to blow it up. But if Barnes is the future, the last thing you want to do is piss him off.
First of all, Barnes clearly put in the work this offseason and has elevated his game across the board. And in February, he could be making his All-Star debut in Indianapolis. He’s ready to win now. Not three or four years from now. So he likely wouldn’t be too ecstatic about a rebuild.
Second of all, we’re living in the player empowerment era. Barnes has seen a player sign a massive max contract extension and then demand a trade before he’s even dotted the i’s (see: Damian Lillard). He’s seen a player demand a trade three different times, the last of which occurring right after opting into the final year of the contract (see: James Harden).
Nowadays, if a player doesn’t like the direction of the team or is unhappy for whatever reason, they can just demand a trade, contract be damned. Do you honestly think if the Raptors bottom out and lose for three or four straight years that Barnes will want to stick around? Would you?
Look at the Pistons’ Cade Cunningham who was selected first overall in Barnes’ draft. Like Barnes, he’s all but assured to sign his rookie-scale contract extension this offseason. But how long will it be before Cunningham asks out of Detroit if the team keeps losing? Toronto doesn’t want to risk walking that same road.
(7) League parity is at its highest in years
The NBA is currently dynasty free. There have been no repeat champions since the Golden State Warriors did it back in 2017 and 2018. And last season, the 8th-seeded Miami Heat, who snuck in through the play-in tournament, made it all the way to the NBA Finals. The league is wide open.
That’s not to say that the Raptors have a chance of following in the Heat’s footsteps this season. But a few years down the line, if they can retool around Siakam and Barnes and then trade for a difference maker when the time is right (à la Kawhi Leonard), anything is possible. And the upcoming Collective Bargaining Agreement will make it even more difficult for teams that look like they might become dynasties, such as the Denver Nuggets, to retain their own players. Parity should be even greater in the coming years.
(8) Speaking of Leonard…what if another player of his caliber comes along?
There’s another advantage to maintaining a competitive team. When the right player comes along, you’ll be ready to pounce.
What if the Raptors front office broke up the DeRozan/Lowry-led team after hitting yet another roadblock in the 2017 playoffs? They wouldn’t have been set up perfectly in case a difference maker like Leonard suddenly became available. If the Raptors were a bottom feeder, winning 15-20 games a year, there would be no win-now move in acquiring Leonard and Danny Green (and later Marc Gasol). And there would be no championship.
The Raptors aren’t the Lakers or Miami Heat. They can’t just sign a top-10 player. But they can trade for one.
That’s why the Raptors need to retool around Siakam and Barnes. Remain competitive. Keep their powder dry for when the right superstar becomes available. But it all starts with keeping Siakam on the squad for years to come.
