It’s a long offseason for teams that don’t make the playoffs. There’s watching and waiting and vacationing and training and … that’s pretty much it. Which gives us plenty of time to play guessing games.
So let’s guess.
The Toronto Raptors fixed a number of their weaknesses this season. Coming into 2023-24, Toronto had too little shooting, too little driving, too little creation, and too little point-of-attack defense. (Among other things.)
When I wrote about what additions the Raptors could make last offseason, I pined desperately for Nickeil Alexander-Walker as the target of Toronto’s midlevel exception. Turns out, yeah, that would have helped. Instead, Toronto’s major addition was Jalen McDaniels. As for shooting, the Raptors came into the 2023-24 season with less than the year prior. Without solving its problems, the Raptors were clearly worse. So they had to nuke the roster. And! That clarified things.
While the Raptors didn’t hit around the edges last offseason, they did (kind of) during the season. Particularly when trading OG Anunoby. I wrote this coming into the 2023-24 season:
To make trading one of Toronto’s core players realistic, the team would need to hit on a player who gets better in Toronto. Would New York go absolutely insane, black out, and trade Obi Toppin or Immanuel Quickley or Quentin Grimes?… wow Quickley and Grimes especially would solve things for Toronto
In hindsight, Quickley was clearly the best of the bunch, and Toronto managed to snare him. That’s a big win. Not to mention the guy who came along in the deal. And with the additions of Quickley and RJ Barrett, Toronto took big strides towards building a roster that makes sense around Scottie Barnes. There’s more shooting, more pace, more cutting, and more tempo in the offense. In fact, many of Toronto’s offensive indicators from this past season were terrific: The Raptors ranked within the top 10 for passes per 100 possessions and within the top five for expected efficiency on shots, shortest time to first action, and percentage of possessions with a paint touch. That all translates to a high-tempo, high-octane offense. Modern stuff. It largely happened behind the incredible growth of Barnes, who is now a surefire star. The point of this article is not to rehash Barnes’ season (that will come, to be sure), but rest assured he got better across the board. Which makes Toronto’s team-building project easier.
So despite what was, in many ways, a frustrating and lost season, the Raptors’ long-term trajectory is still relatively on track. Perhaps the most important component of Toronto’s long-term health is this number: In 400 minutes with all three of Barnes, Barrett, and Quickley on the court, Toronto had a net rating of plus-3.3. In 200 minutes with Poeltl as well, it was plus-11.5. That’s a foundation, even given the small-minute totals. Any improvement, or addition, or adaptation, must be made with that foursome in mind.
So now what do the Raptors need now?
Maybe the simplest need, but a crucial one, is to retain Quickley. He is a restricted free agent, meaning Toronto can keep him if it so desires. Signing him at a reasonable number less than the max — perhaps $20-$25 million per year, or so — would be a big win for Toronto.
Beyond that obvious need, while Toronto added some shooting to the roster, it still desperately needs more. Quickley is an exceptional shooter and very capable of being even a good team’s best marksman. Barrett has been very good in Toronto and middling for the remainder of his career, so it will be important that he stays at his high level. He was particularly exceptional in the corners. Barnes was improved for much of the year, though that tailed off towards the end of his season. And Poeltl is a devastating finisher, though he is a non-shooter. That’s not quite enough 3-point firepower in a starting lineup. The Raptors will need a starting shooting guard or small forward who can drain triples at a high frequency, whether off the catch or the bounce. Perhaps Gradey Dick steps in there (although that would introduce defensive weaknesses).
Of course, shooting is far from the only thing Toronto lacks. Perhaps even more integrally, the Raptors need initiation. They need players capable of creating advantages from a standstill, in multiple play options, who can pull up or drive, who can finish, and who can create for others at the same time. Quickley is improving there, but he’s not a strong starting point guard in that respect.
Toronto has been at its best with the ball in Barnes’ hands, and the Barnes-Quickley screening action has been far more devastating than the Quickley-Barnes version. That makes sense, as Quickley needs a smashing, mashing big to create space for him (a la Hartenstein). And Toronto has a player like that in Poeltl. But finding other effective initiating combos is crucial.
The only possessions on which Toronto averaged more than 1.0 points per, given each individual ballhandler, belonged to Barnes. That’s rough. Most good teams have several such players. Even if Quickley improves there given better screening partners (and he did average 1.0 points per chance with Poeltl screening for him), Toronto could use another initiator to share the burden.
Creators are harder to find than shooters. And Toronto needs one player, preferably a shooting guard, with both of those abilities. Here’s the entire list of players in the NBA this season who, on at least 500 picks and 100 pull-up triples, averaged at least 1.0 points per pick and shot at least 36 percent on pull-up triples:
- Austin Reaves
- Cameron Payne
- CJ McCollum
- D’Angelo Russell
- Damian Lillard
- De’Aaron Fox
- Devin Booker
- Fred VanVleet
- Jalen Brunson
- Jalen Williams
- Jamal Murray
- James Harden
- Jaylen Brown
- Jayson Tatum
- Jrue Holiday
- Kawhi Leonard
- Kevin Durant
- Khris Middleton
- Kyrie Irving
- LeBron James
- Luka Doncic
- Malik Monk
- Marcus Sasser
- Mike Conley
- Paul George
- Steph Curry
- Trae Young
- Tyrese Haliburton
Here’s that list given who is an upcoming free agent or has a player option that is likely to be declined, and is not over 30 and a max or near-max player (as those qualities likely make such players poor fits for this Toronto roster):
- Cameron Payne
- D’Angelo Russell
- Malik Monk
I’d also like to add a few possible draft lottery candidates who were also strong pull-up shooters and pick-and-roll handlers. The numbers are not comparable, so these players don’t necessarily fit into the filters above. But they have more or less the same strengths (although it’s very likely that none of the below players are ready to contribute as plus creators at the NBA level):
- Reed Sheppard (52.1 percent from deep)
- Ja’Kobe Walter (34.1 percent from deep)
- Rob Dillingham (44.4 percent from deep)
- Jared McCain (41.4 percent from deep)
- Isaiah Collier (33.8 percent from deep)
Keep the above lists in mind as we continue on through the list of Toronto’s needs.
Perhaps just as crucially, Toronto needs drivers who can keep the chains of advantage moving on the offensive end. That’s what makes Barrett such an ideal fit in Toronto — he will drive until he is stopped, always churning his feet beneath the surface of the play to continually fight his way forward to the rim. Ideally, the same guard who offers initiation and shooting can drive and finish, too. But that’s a big ask. At that point, Toronto’s looking at a star. The next-closest thing might be Austin Reaves, but there’s no chance Toronto can pry him away from the Lakers for nothing.
If Toronto opts to find its needed skills in different players, Josh Richardson could be worth a look. He will likely decline his player option after a strong year in Miami, and he is a solid finisher on drives. Tyus Jones is a very efficient shooter from short midrange and at the rim and a sneakily high-frequency driver. He’s also an unrestricted free agent. (And a very competent pick-and-roll operator and shooter.) Alex Caruso would cost a king’s ransom on the trade market, but he is a strong driver and finisher. Players who can take an advantage created by a teammate and turn it into a paint touch are extraordinarily valuable. The Indiana Pacers built the boat out of such players. The Raptors are still lacking in players who can do that, frankly across the positional spectrum.
Toronto also needs more, of course. Despite all the stated needs, the offensive end projects to be the real strength for this roster. Or at least, the stronger end. Defense is where the Raptors most struggled following their revolutionary changes midway through the season. From Jan. 17 to Mar. 1, after Toronto traded both of Pascal Siakam and Anunoby, but before Barnes hurt his hand, the Raptors ranked 22nd in offense and 27th in defense. And there were stretches where the offense was far better than that. That’s not true for defense, which was basically never good after Anunoby left.
Defensively, the Raptors lack virtually everything. Barnes and Poeltl are pluses — can they shoulder a strong defense on their backs alone? It’s unlikely. Toronto needs so much more. Point-of-attack defense (Quickley was very disappointing there, and it might be the weakest component of Barrett’s already middling defensive repertoire) is vital. Size on the wings for switching or tagging or isolation defense. Speed for rotations and closeouts. Players who can corral drives and redirect them or even stonewall them. Diggers who can force turnovers. Just, everything.
Defenders who do all of that are extremely rare. Anunoby, of course. Caruso. But it’s likely that Toronto is going to improve its defense piece by piece rather than fixing it all at once. Jae’Sean Tate is a fantastic defender, especially in rotation, and he might be getting squeezed out of the rotation as the Houston Rockets’ youngsters age and develop. He played the fewest minutes per game of his career this past season. Perhaps they reject his team option and Toronto throws a cheapo contract at him?
Among the aforementioned shooters and creators, Russell was one of the NBA’s best at limiting opposing pick-and-roll efficiency, by the numbers, when defending the ballhandler. Of course, he had terrific defensive personnel behind him. He was also slightly above average at corralling drives and minimizing their efficiency (again, it helps to have Anthony Davis behind you there). He was also among the league leaders (top 50) at creating deflections, which Toronto sorely lacks outside of Barnes. Russell would slot in as perhaps Toronto’s best guard defender. (That says as much about him as about Toronto.) Payne and Monk are less capable defenders. Tyus Jones is probably a cut above Payne or Monk, though he was not helped by his defensive teammates in Washington. He would not give the offensive boost of a player like Monk, but he’s a solid professional, and he is likely a better defender.
Toronto could also shift Barrett to shooting guard and acquire a forward, as long as it doesn’t detract from the team’s shooting and initiation skills. I’m a big fan of Deni Avdija, and he would help in virtually every regard. He’s a big plus as a defender, a driver, a shooter, a passer. He’s great. Are the Washington Wizards fans of good players? Perhaps he could be acquired in a trade, maybe even for one of Toronto’s picks this year. That’s really a pipe dream, but oh well.
If Toronto wants to hit a homerun, trading for a star shooting guard who addresses every need would pretty much do the trick. Devin Booker would be a seamless fit on the offensive end, and he’s a better defender than people think. If the Phoenix Suns tear it all down, snagging Booker would pretty much fix Toronto. Of course, that is basically an impossibility. Ditto for Donovan Mitchell. Perfect fit, but an impossibility. Far more likely would be something like Toronto holding off on signing its own free agents and giving a big offer sheet to someone like D’Angelo Russell (and then afterwards signing Quickley, of course). Toronto could also use its cap space to go bargain hunting, as Samson and Tre discussed at length. Cam Johnson (not going to happen) or Lonnie Walker IV (had a great year!) are two such options. If Toronto wants to fully lean in on the offense, it can start Dick (he should have immense chemistry with Barnes) and accept its lumps on defense. If Toronto only signs a solid defender, and not an elite one, the defense still isn’t going to be great.
Furthermore, the Raptors probably need to improve at the center spot down the road. Toronto needs everything Poeltl provides — efficient finishing on offense, clever passing, huge screening, solid rim protection and rebounding on defense — but also added spacing and driving at the center spot. Myles Turner would have been a clear and impressive fit, but that ship has sailed and then some. Kelly Olynyk is now Toronto’s spacing big, and he did have a very solid offensive season for Toronto playing out of delay and acting as a handoff hub, but he is not going to help a team as a starting big. As we saw. Still, a center rotation of Poeltl and Olynyk is varied and capable. If the Raptors get lucky in the draft, maybe Alex Sarr falls into their laps. Otherwise, rolling with Poeltl and Olynyk is the best and simplest choice for now. I doubt the Raptors change the center rotation this offseason
If Sarr isn’t available, Toronto would be best off picking someone like Reed Sheppard and hoping he grows fast and furious into a combo guard of the future. I haven’t even mentioned the possibility of Toronto’s pick falling out of the top six and conveying to the Spurs — that would not be ideal, in my mind. I doubt Toronto has a chance a top pick next year.
The Raptors will have other picks as well. Maybe after their own top-six pick, they can grab Collier with Indiana’s pick, or even a shooting big like Tyler Smith early in the second round (or with Indiana’s pick). I’m not a draft expert by any means, but the Raptors need more promising young players on the roster. Toronto needs players who can eventually pop, who can develop into future contributors. The Raptors didn’t see that from many of its non-core players in the 2023-24 season, and reloading on the back end of the roster in the 2024 draft will be significant. It’s not supposed to be a great draft, but there are always unexpectedly great contributors to be found.
A truly perfect, while still realistic, offseason might see Toronto retain Quickley at a reasonable number, draft Sheppard, sign Russell and Tyus Jones, and trade for Avdija. In that case, Gary Trent jr. would likely walk, but that’s not too large a loss. (He hasn’t grown his game in tangible ways since arriving in Toronto, and despite being a very strong shooter, he’s not a starter-level driver, finisher, passer, or defender.) Toronto would likely decline Bruce Brown jr.’s option too, letting him find greener pastures. We’re obviously pushing the bounds of reason calling these moves “realistic,” and the finances could very quickly see Toronto pushing the luxury tax again once Barnes is up for his max contract after next season. But that would likely be the best Toronto can do to address its needs.
The Raptors will have a large amount of roster churn among non-rotation players on the roster. Most teams, especially non-playoff ones, always do. Expect some or all of players like McDaniels, Jordan Nwora, Garrett Temple, Javon Freeman-Liberty, and Malik Williams to be on new teams next season (whether in the NBA or elsewhere, for some of them). Even Chris Boucher might be on a different team next year — at least, he deserves to play on a competitive team. Toronto needs to find promising youngsters, like Christian Koloko or Jontay Porter, who can develop on the margins. I’m still a believer in the future feasibility of DJ Carton. But that’s the small stuff.
The most important concern is the actual rotation. Right now, Barnes, Dick, Poeltl, Quickley, Barrett, and Olynyk are certainties. That’s only six. If Toronto keeps Trent, he is an NBA-caliber rotation player. (His salary, of course, would be the question. Players very rarely take large pay cuts to stay with the same non-contending team.) The Raptors need to find three more NBA-level contributors at the bare minimum if they want to be a competitive team. For non-playoff teams, having every player in the rotation be an NBA-level player, a real contributor, is a huge advantage. Such teams win games. Perhaps Ochai Agbaji gets there. Optimizing those contributors, such as with a player like Russell, would be ideal. But just finding real players who can give good, consistent minutes is probably the most important first step in Toronto’s path to winning games. Idealized players come after having a real rotation. If Toronto could add bargain players like De’Andre Hunter or Tyus Jones, that fills out a rotation in a strong way. (Jones, of course, is also a perfect fit, as well as a competent contributor.)
In many ways, what Toronto needs now has flipped since last offseason. Toronto needed to build its team around Barnes. That has happened. But before, Toronto had a rotation that didn’t fit perfectly — now it has fit (theoretically) without a rotation. Now Toronto is small — it used to be big. Now Toronto is offensive — it used to be defensive. (Theoretically.) Change happened fast. The most important improvements Toronto can muster will come from within the roster. Quickley needs to improve as a defender. Ditto for Dick. Agbaji needs to rediscover his jumper. Those improvements — and health and availability for the best players — will go a long way towards Toronto being a competitive team next year.
And it’s unclear if Toronto even wants to be a competitive team next year. (The only issue with that is that if Toronto keeps its pick this year, it will be very likely to convey next season, as Toronto really shouldn’t have a bottom-six record with this roster.) Still, Masai Ujiri is infernally patient, and the Raptors aren’t going to skip steps of this rebuild just because. Perhaps the Raptors want to keep their powder dry, their cap sheets clean, and simply draft promising rookies and otherwise go into next season with the same top end of the roster. (There will be changes on the bench, of course.) If all the major contributors improve, that could be a fairly ideal offseason — simply because Toronto’s foundation is already in place. If that foundation grows, the team is doing well. That’s the horse to which the wagon is attached. A healthy horse means a fast-moving wagon. Or something.
Either way, for the first time in years, the Raptors have certainty in regards to the key players on the roster, and flexibility in regards to assets not on the roster (draft picks, cap space, etc.). This offseason could go any number of ways. But as the first offseason for this new era, it’s crucial that the Raptors nail it.
