Gameday: Nuggets @ Raptors, December 31st

Coming off back-to-back clutch wins against the Golden State Warriors and the Orlando Magic, the Toronto Raptors are looking to end the year with a bang by defeating the Denver Nuggets. A task that has become significantly easier in the last 24 hours as Nikola Jokić hyperextended his knee against the Miami Heat, and will miss at least the next four weeks. Still, the Raptors haven’t exactly taken advantage of teams they should beat, and often stoop to their level instead. It’s paramount that they take this game as seriously as if Jokić were playing.

Raptors Outlook

Record: 20-14 | 4th in Eastern Conference
Offensive Rating: 113.9 (18th) | Defensive Rating: 112.5 (7th) | Net Rating: +1.3 (14th)

The Raptors have been up-and-down all season, but are currently riding a two game win-streak and hope to take the winning into the new year. RJ Barrett will be active for this one, a very good thing considering how the offense has managed without him. Barrett’s ability to attack the rim will make a difference as Denver allows the 2nd highest rim accuracy in the league. Though the team actually does better guarding the rim when Jokić sits.

The absence of Jokić and Aaron Gordon bodes well for Scottie Barnes, who has done an excellent job taking advantage of smaller front courts. Barnes will instead be matched up against the likes of Peyton Watson or Spencer Jones. Defensively, Barnes will also be able to roam far more as there are less offensive threats to worry about, a role that he excels in.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see extended minutes from Ja’Kobe Walter and Jamal Shead, and there’s even the possibility one of them starts and Barnes slides to center. Jamal Murray is the only Nuggets starter remaining in their lineup, and those two are the best suited to defend him.

Nuggets Outlook

Record: 22-10 | 3rd in Western Conference
Offensive Rating: 123.9 (1st) | Defensive Rating: 116.7 (21st) | Net Rating: +7.2 (3rd)

Throw out everything you know about the Nuggets this season, with Jokić out of the lineup they aren’t even remotely the same team. Jokic has an on/off differential of +20.5, meaning the team is far, far, worse when he sits. They score less efficiently, get less free throws, the pace slows, and they allow more points defensively.

Jamal Murray will be the primary creator for the Nuggets, and coming home to Canada I imagine he’ll be looking to have a big night. This season Murray is averaging 25.2 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 7.0 assists and strong play over their stretch without Jokić may earn him his first All-Star bid. However, Murray relies heavily on pick and rolls to score a lot of his points, and without his primary PnR partner and all of the defensive attention on him, he may struggle to get things going.

The Nuggets will have to find ways to score, and will rely on their role-players to step up in big games. And who knows? Maybe Valančiūnas has a massive revenge game.