Five Things I Dig and Don’t Dig About the Toronto Raptors

The Toronto Raptors are in, what I would unprofessionally diagnose as, a rut. The last two Ls against LAC and MEM, particularly, there’s been a lack of collective resilience. A few buckets don’t fall, a couple of offensive rebounds surrendered, a deficit down to a dozen early on, and, swiftly, dejection spreads through the ranks like cholera.

What’s siphoning this team of its will is clear: frustration, exhaustion, gloom.

Do I have the answers to all of their problems? No. None of us do. A complex dose of psychology, personnel, injuries, schematics, timing, and fate.

All I know or at least think is: it’s not permanent. So don’t you dare take your mask off. Not you too. Plenty to hold on to. Take a slice of Matt Devlin “rose coloured” apple pie. You must. They must.

Let’s roll.

*All data and most talking points don’t include the Memphis Grizzlies game.

1. Scary Scottie of Olde

Somebody got a talkin’ to.

Not necessarily a mean one. A could see it like a scene in a low budget sports redemption story where Scottie takes a seat across Nurse sitting curled-over a crowded wooden desk.

Nurse points to some memento of old covered in dust. “See this right, ‘ere. I didn’t get this playing for myself. Did I?”

Scottie, “Naw, coach.”

“No, I didn’t.” Nurse leans back, “You know why you’re here, right?”

You know how the rest goes.

Or maybe it was in film, alone with Freddy or Earl Watson or Samson Folk, meticulously breaking down what has and has not worked on each possession over the first part of the season.

Maybe Masai took him to Okonomie House and had a heart to heart over some Okanomi-yaki

Or maybe it’s the entire team sitting in front of N.🏀.A.H (it Stark Industries designed?) and they all take turns telling Scottie why he’s great and why they need him. Boyyyyy do they need him.

Whatever the tactic, it worked!

It was not so long ago (December 2nd to be exact) that I wrote (#2) distraughtly about Scottie’s shot selection. Everything screamed Scottie-centrism and it wasn’t going all that well. Production and efficiency down.

What has made Scottie so successful in his nascent career and an All-Star-level talent has been his mastery of space. Attacking seams, disgracing undersized opponents, finding unprotected spots (#4), making half-second, unseen passes, and striking cross-court finds. He is great at all of it. Better than a very large percentage of the NBA. Yet, he went away from it.

I understand why. A bird too big for his nest. Let me fly. And fly they let him. With middling results.

Until now. Over the past seven games, we’ve seen a return to the Scottie we know. A guy who does all of what I just talked about and does so with an intensity and excitement we fans find so enthusing and contagious.

A look at the raw numbers.

First 26 Games: 33 mins | 14 PTS | 49 EFG% | 2 OREBS | 5 ASTS | 2.4 TOS | 19.9 USG%

Last 7 Games: 35 mins | 17.1 PTS | 49 EFG% | 2 OREBS | 5 ASTS | 1.9 TOS | 21.6 USG%

A boost in efficiency: more points on the same shooting percentage with less turnovers a tad more usage. Grand!

A look at the shot profile and it’s an even greater revelation.

In the last 7 games, all of what we [I] want to see more of from Scottie trends forward. He’s taking less jumpshots – both catch + shoot and pull-ups – he’s driving more, he’s shooting in the paint and restricted area much more, and he’s taking less dribbles, generally, prior to shooting.

All of that data is indicative of what we’re witnessing. An aggression and decisiveness manifesting in a mounted-stead-charging-lesser-pikemen rather than an overzealous-longbowmen-lofting-arrows-from-the safety-of-beyond.

True, in those seven games, the Raptors are 2-5. But three of those losses were within 3 points or less. Coulda gone either way.

For a team that seldom gets to the rim and rarely enjoys straight mismatches (O.G. is still working on that part of his game) Scottie’s focus on attacking whoever is guarding him – bigger, smaller, slower, longer, doesn’t matter – is absolutely integral to the Raptors overall offensive success.

And their future.

2. More DPOY Chants, Please

Defence is a toughy to statistically analyze.

You can’t just use them in and of themselves. For one, there’s luck. Great defence melts in the way of good fortune. For two, and most importantly, it’s matchup dependent. Who and for how long is a player guarding someone.

The NBA is an offence’s league. This year particularly so. There are 7 players averaging 30 points or more. In the last three years, there have only ended up being 2. Thus, “stopping” scorers isn’t really the right descriptor; more like slowing or annoying.

Except for O.G., he’s a stopper.

Look at who O.G. has guarded and their paltry, comparative numbers.

Poor shot percentages and high turnovers. Delicious.

Now, some of this is because of Nurse’s, now criticized, defensive scheme where they’re doubling dudes to give up the ball and force decisions. Again, context is everything. But if you watch enough of O.G., you know this says much more about him than the opponent or the scheme.

Recall some of the games, and you’ll concur. Donovan Mitchell is 8th in the league in scoring. In three games against Toronto, he’s gone 12/21, 3/11, and 4/16. Kevin Durant 7th in the league in scoring and at great efficiency was 8/18, 5/10, and the game O.G. didn’t play…10/15.

A quick glance at some general defensive data points and the song sings in harmony. We all know O.G. is a thief – he leads the league in that. He’s also in the 100th percentile for block percentage and 60th percentile for foul rate percentage among wings.

Perhaps most convincingly, among starters who have played 25 games or more, O.G. is 5th in overall defensive field goal percentages allowed. The other 3 ahead of him are centres with great perimeter defenders orbiting their realms, and in first is Jevon Carter who has Giannis, Brook Lopez and Jrue Holiday to buoy his work. Combine that with the fact that, most times, O.G. is bearing a greater offensive load than these other great defenders, and you’ll appreciate his defensive tyranny all the more.

This is not the time to completely lay out O.G.’s case for DPOY. It is, however, time to begin exalting his superiority and versatility (against Memphis last night, O.G. took on Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr.) and announcing it loud and proud.

When absurd fans call for blowups and trades, retort first that Toronto now has a Top-10 offensive closer and Top-3 defensive closer. That’s a foundation any franchise would scream for.

3. What is the World is this?

A break from basketball.

I’m was about to talk about Khem, but first I have to share the weirdest thing I might have ever found on Twitter. Which says a lot because that place is a landfill of capital F Fucked Up stuff.

So, I’m looking for Khem injury reports and send a little search out into the Twittersphere. (@ElonFuk can you improve the Twitter search function? It is absolutely horrendous.)

Anyway, I find two tweets with Khem Birch in it.

Both were published on Boxing Day. Both from @JohnStanleyNBA.

Now, before I get into the tweets. John is, according to his profile, an “NBA Insider” and “NBA Countdown”; the latter not making any sense. He’s not saying he’s in NBA Countdown or loves it. Just says it.

He’s also a “Proud dad of 3” and “NFL NEWS”. Again, the latter not making any real sense.

Last thing. John also ends with a sentence in his profile saying “What if tweets may apply.” I don’t know what the fuck that means.

Is he asking me “What if tweets may apply?”? Like, is he asking metaphysically: does making a tweet somehow speak something into existence in some dimension or world someplace somewhere? OR is he saying “‘What If’ tweets may apply.”? As in, the information he’s tweeting, isn’t true now, but it’s possible in some future they will occur. Or, is he saying “What if tweets may apply.” by which he means despite these tweets looking crazy or conjecture they may actually be true – up to you to find out.

No idea.

All I know is his 157 followers must get a kick out of the complete nonsense he spouts.

Here are the Birch tweets that occurred on Monday:

I don’t get it. Do you?

Khem obviously doesn’t play for Memphis nor Indiana. For that matter, Delon is in Washington. He reports them an hour apart. Birch being on two separate teams in that span. John “@s” two reputable sports outlets – ESPN and TheAthletic – so he wants the attention. Why and for what purpose would constant nonsensical tweets get him any notice, you’d have to ask him.

Utter waste of my time all this.

SUPER DUPER UTTER WASTE OF HIS TIME.

Quick scroll through and John is doing this on the reg. Some are current announcements, like the Khem ones and this Freddy one below, that just don’t make sense.

25 minutes ago…

Others are predictions that can’t be true for a number of reasons. 35 minutes ago…

55 minutes ago…

Sorry. Utter waste of time.

4. Kan We Khem?

Okay, back to why I wanted to write about Khem.

(I acknowledge this doesn’t age supppper well against Memphis, but I stand by the general tenets.)

There’s been a lot of clamouring for a centre. Nothing new there. I’m slowly falling into agreement with those wanting a Myles Turner or Jakob Pöltl. I’m on the fence still, but edging closer. Until any such acquisition occurs, however, I want to, first, see more consistent minutes for Khem.

Khem Birch has effectively been out of the Raptors rotation all year. He’s played more than 10 minutes this year only 5 times.

The reasoning is complicated. He had knee surgery in the offseason delaying his return to tip-top form. Then, Christian Koloko popped. Then Thad. Then more injuries and sickess. Then Juancho got going. So on and so forth.

And before I advocate for more Khem let me preface it all with the fact that, for this team, every game, ultimately, depends. The Raptors have a number of “centre” options with significant flaws. Thad is a bit small and slow. Koloko, young and inexperienced. Juancho isn’t a centre nor is Scottie and they struggle rebounding and battling down low.

There will be a time and place for all of them. Thaddeus for some offensive diversity and calming veteran presence. Koloko for a bit more mobility and shot blocking. Juancho for shooting. But all three fail to provide any sort of consistent, dependable defensive presence.

Of late, that is where Toroto has suffered. We’re used to a floundering offence and oppressive defence. Over the last two weeks, the Raps have had the 25th worst defence, dropping them to 16th overall.

All year, the interior has been a major problem. They are 27th in opponent at-rim percentage and 25th in short-midrange percentages. We saw it emphatically, recently against the Clippers, where Ivica Zubac carved, and the Grizzlies where the rebounding disparity was like global wealth.

Now, Birch is no rim protector. In fact, it’s his greatest weakness as a centre. Rather, Khem’s combination of positional fundamentals, lateral quickness, and brute strength enable him to both execute Nurse’s frantic scheme and provide some power down low.

You’ll see below how that translates. So often, Koloko will get lost when the plays break down and the scramble is on. Thad, on the other hand, is just a bit too slow and small. Juancho too thin.

In the following three clips, you’ll see Khem at his best navigating P+Rs with a combination of good positioning and lateral quickness. Raps have been getting destroyed in those actions – Ja Morant gobbled them up – and Khem, against lesser lob threats like Domantas Sabonis, Mo Bamba (who Khem can muscle around), or Mo Wagner, is a better option for the Raps.

Of course, we also have Khem as the sturdiest post player of the bunch.

And, most importantly, Khem’s best working within Nurse’s defensive system moving more seamlessly as a helpside defender than the other Raptor “centres”.

Not long clips, but you see how Khem’s working on the shortest lines of distance to stop drives and challenge shots. In the first clip, Khem plugs penetration, closes out (NOT JUMP!), switches his defensive stance to ready himself for the drive, and then slides with Haywood Highsmith’s attack forcing him into a tough floater 10 feet out. In the other two clips, same simple defensive principles working the weakside as help and then charging back to close out and contest shots. Easier said then done though, especially, to challenge the shot so acutely.

When Khem is on the floor, the Raptors allow -3.4 less points per 100 possessions (Koloko is -9.4 and O.G. -3.2), they foul less, and force more turnovers. They also give up more rebounds and a higher percentage of shooting. So, like all of Toronto’s “centre” options, context matters; a give and take. What is needed in terms of offence? Is defensive rebounding a greater prerogative or forcing turnovers?

What we’ve seen of recent from Toronto is a dire need for a steady centre presence. I have liked Scottie nominally at the five, but their defensive rebounding struggles and he too gets lost in rotations.

When Khem has played, he’s looked slow. Rust and injury likely inhibiting his optimal. Assuming full health, though, the Raps should look to Khem for a more balance defensive lineup where they don’t have to rush to double – which I’m kinda over – and can instead rely on their individual matchups and sound rotations to get back to the defensive execution they’re accustomed to.

Against Embiid, for example, last week, Birch did a solid job. One of the two three-pointers was perfectly challenged by Birch. Matched up, Birch held Embiid to 10 points and 44% shooting with 1 assist and two turnovers in 7 minutes of battling. To me, that’s where Birch can alleviate a lot of Toronto’s current stressors. Hope that Birch holds his own against the larger brutes and let the other four win their matchups.

He played 23 minutes that game. Which proves another point. If Nurse is going to test Birch, he has to let him play more than just a scattering of minutes. As we’ve seen with Thad, Juancho, and Flynn, if these guys can get some time to settle in and find their rhythm, they can contribute.

With upcoming battles against several “brutes”- Steven Adams (it didn’t go all that well generally), DeAndre Ayton, and the Bucks bigs – now is a great time for Nurse to turn to Birch and see what he can bring.

5. Shoulder Squeeze

There are those who hand-shake. Those who dap. Those who hug. And those who shoulder grab.

I, personally, like to hug and then give a nice vigorous rubbing between the scapulas. Good reassurance that the world loves you.

A shoulder squeeze though. A shoulder squeeze. Man, that exudes confidence, strength, and love all in one. To do it is to the proclaim leader of a wolf pack. To know that you are looked upon with great respect and humility.

LA Clippers were in town. We got to see Normy’s tribute video *Tear*. We also got to see Kawhi’s first return to Toronto proper. First, we see/hear about a CLASSSSSSSIC Kawhi interaction with Toronto staff – or lack-there-of.

Then, we get a most humanizing moment of Kawhi thanks to Freddy’s bear mitts grasping the robotic Kawhi so lovingly. Freddy with that cute, vibrant smile of his, waltzes over to Kawhi going through his very serious shooting routine and gives the strongest man in the NBA a full-on shoulder squeeze. Like, “Hey, son, good to see you. Hope things are well with all that you’ve chosen to do since we were last together. Hope you got what you wanted. Farewell, son.”

Maybe I’m the only one to laugh and glow with adoration. But both I did.