Five Things I Dig and Don’t Dig About the Toronto Raptors

Yeesh, the last few have been rough. We need some Holy Water, a few sacrifices on the Mountain Top, some seaweed burnings for the Sea Gods, and whatever else is out there for breaking hexes and curing curses. Because this one is deep.

The Raptors have lost 6 of their last 10. Three wins against teams slumping worse than they; one win terribly lucky; and three recent losses that felt inexcusable as we helplessly watched them unfold.

I almost think I should stop commenting on what can/should/needs to be fixed now. Whatttttt’s the pointtttt? I was, likely, one of the last bastions of optimism, but there’s now a feeling in Toronto Raptor air (internally and externally) that what was…is, and will soon be, no more.

I told myself I’d wait until the Knicks game this past Friday to decide where I stood. I lied. I still don’t know. Maybe, that’s okay. Maybe I will let greater basketball minds make more important decisions than I and be content with whatever transpires.

After all. I am just a loyal fan. Nothing more, nothing less.

Let’s roll.

*All data is prior to Thursday night’s game

1. Big Leads Go Buh Bye

This hurts more than most.

The poor guys are busting their tails and excelling, in moments, only to, helplessly and exhaustingly, watch it all slip away.

Peeps this:

I feel for them. Losing leads and games like that breeds a kind of discouragement that can metastasize quickly.

You see these guys put their heart and soul and bodies, thanks to Nicky No Sittin’ Nurse, into every game, and either tragically give the games away or narrowly claw their way out of them.

Look at the swings against Minny, Milwaukee, New York, and Indiana. Even in some of the other wins, things got hairy, viewers’ butts puckered.

These games are the ones that probably pervade Masai and Bobby’s minds more than most. The inability to hold leads and the struggle to eke out wins swaying their transactional frameworks more than any other.

It’s also making it harder to look at this team as cup half full. The losses are against “lesser”, undermanned teams (even Atlanta has several injuries) and look more like inevitable demises than extremely unfortunate sequences of events.

Either way, it’s not promising. And for a fan, it makes for really bad heart palpitations.

Nothing feels safe.

2. What to do at Centre?

On that note, let’s change up the starting lineup while we’re at it, shall we?

We’re at a point now where the starters understand it’s not working. Change has to happen.

Whoever it is – Gary or O.G. to the pine might be the answer – someone has to take a seat in place of Precious Achiuwa.

Across the board, the Raptors defence has been poor. Especially of late, giving up 120 and 114 to the 2nd worst offence in the league in Charlotte, 130 to a Bucks team without Giannis Antetokounmpo or Kris Middleton, and 128 to a Timberwolves team without Rudy Gobert or Karl Anthony-Towns, and with Anthony Edwards shooting 5/16.

It’s been bad for a while. The Raptors have a middle-of-the-road defensive rating (16th) for the season, are in the 29th percentile for defensive effective field goal percentage and rank no better than the 25th percentile in defensive at-rim, midrange, and three-point percentage.

Most of this falls upon the starters. The core five of FVV, Gary, O.G., Pascal, and Barnes have allowed 116.2 points per 100 possessions (38th percentile) imbibing upon a toxic brew of poor rim protection (Koloko in place of Gary, for example, lowers points allowed to 112.7 per 100 possessions and in place of FVV to 100.9{!}), a leaky perimeter, and an onslaught of opponent three-point shooting.

I have always been a proponent of Gary off the bench, as you know. Even Scottie, at times. But I had also always advocated for Precious as a part of the bench unit. No longer.

With Koloko’s sudden disappearance from the rotation altogether and Khem’s (for whom, I once advocated {#4}) ship sailing to Valar, Precious is next up.

For a big, Precious fouls little (82nd percentile in foul percentage) while still being able to block (49th percentile) and rebound on the defensive end (72nd percentile) at a respectable rate. He is also, most importantly, strong enough to battle brutes down low and quick enough to challenge shiftier perimeter scorers. Scottie’s done his best (more on that, next segment), but lacks the overall athleticism.

Data is limited, with Precious missing so many games, but in the 743 possessions he has played, the Raptors allow only 65% shooting at the rim – top third in the league. All other combined lineups without Precious allow 69%. That increased rim protection in addition to his ability to close gaps on the perimeter and on the helpside makes Precious an ideal Raptor-style “centre”.

We also know from last year, with a larger sample size, how effective a Precious + starters line up was. FVV, Gary, O.G., Scottie + Precious were in the 84th percentile in points allowed per 100 possessions; FVV, Gary, Pascal, Scottie + Precious in the 78th percentile.

Precious is an excellent pick and roll defender. In switches, which Toronto prefers, he has little trouble staying in front of smaller, quicker ballhandlers fending actions off effectively.

In consecutive defensive plays, Precious switches on to Dejounte Murray and remains square in front of him. Murray settles for middies; a win for Toronto despite both hitting.

Precious is prone to his lapses; particularly, in rotation, like most young players.

(This one is a little more forgivable with the confusion of 2-3 zone principles added to the mix.) And will, at times, struggle against taller men.

But so will most other Raptors.

Nurse’s argument for not playing a more prototypical centre has been lack of spacing on the offensive end. (That issue plagues this team regardless, it seems). In the last five games, however, Precious has shot 43% on 14 three-point attempts – 2nd only to Boucher, hilariously enough, in the same time span. We saw a similar accuracy progression in the latter half of last season too.

That hot streak may cool, but it’s enough to dismiss concerns of offensive challenges. Precious has also been attacking the rim in the half court with greater success than either Gary or O.G., making up for whatever shooting regression he may endure.

Regardless of this team’s direction in the coming weeks, Precious entering the starting lineup – either as a last ditch effort to save the season or to develop during a retool – feels like an inevitability.

3. Scottie The Charge Chaser

Cheers to Scottie Barnes. Poor fella has gone through a Hell of a sophomore year. Everyone’s on his ass. Then, they’re not. Then, they are. Now, they’re not again.

Give the guy a frigging break, will ya?

Not only is it tough being a 21 year-old professional with 29 other teams trying to crack you, he’s had to do it in a very complex system while thrust into a myriad of different roles.

Point guard. Forward. And, now, centre.

Relatively speaking, Barnes has done a pretty good job defensively. On CleaningtheGlass, he’s considered a forward. In that respect he’s in the 85th percentile in block percentage, the 61st percentile in steal percentage, the 88th percentile in foul percentage, and across the board a solid defensive rebounder.

And, of late, Scottie’s defence has really improved. He looks more engaged and more energized – like he once did in Florida St. and as a rookie – and has demonstrated a better sense of where to be and how to react in different situations. He looks more comfortable at centre too; though, its success has been limited. Hence, my pleading for Precious.

This team is supposed to swallow guys. To either force them into uncomfortable shots or clamp them before finding the rim. Last year, the Raps were 13th in at-rim shots allowed; the year before, 7th. This year, they’re 22nd. Once at the rim, as discussed above, teams are juicing it. Scottie is just not athletic enough to truly contend with aspirational attackers.

Cue the Charge Chase.

As the primary helpside, Scottie’s often the one to challenge penetration. Instead of flying intimidatingly at guys, Scottie goes for a more surreptitious approach. With players still metres away from the rim, Scottie “shows” for a charge. Something, I don’t think I’ve seen from so far away nor so often.

Anything being more impactful than the Charge Chasing.

4. END-TO-ENDERS

I know Chris Boucher has been up and down the majority of the season (including a DNP last night). I’d argue more up than down, at least considering his minutes played.

One thing about Boucher that doesn’t fluctuate is his hustle. He’s one of the hardest working, smartest hustlers I’ve seen.

So much so, he deserves his own stat. Two, actually. The first is fouls drawn on offensive rebounding. Never seen a guy draw so many fouls simply by outcompeting guys on the glass. I’m not writing about that though.

The stat I’m talking about is the End-to-Ender.

Definition: A consecutive sequence of plays where, at one end, the player either blocks an opponent or putbacks a missed shot by a teammate, and then follows that possession with the other.

Exhibit A:

Boucher, on the weakside, is warding against both Obi Toppin on the post and RJ Barrett on the weakside corner. Toppin smartly dives and Boucher is forced to recover. UNH UNH.

A scramble for the ball ensues. Scottie grabs it and full-court passes it down to Juancho. Boucher is BEHIND Scottie at the point of the pass. There are four Knicks in front of Boucher and he’s parallel to Pascal. Watch Boucher zoom. The Knicks don’t exactly hustle back, Boucher still bursts by them and follows Juancho’s miss with a cram.

An End-to-Ender.

One of those plays, alone, should be celebrated.

Both indicates the heart of Wookie. Think about it. On one end, timing and effort have to be optimal. You have to evade opponents and get to a spot at nearly an exact moment that, theoretically, 9 other dudes are also racing for.

Then, you have to turn around and run the distance, rim to rim, at a speed faster than most and do the exact same thing on the other end.

Think what you will of Chris Boucher. His hustle is unparalleled.

5. Way to Go, Joe!

The fizzling out against Minnesota last night was tough to swallow. One fella’ was likely celebrating deep down, quietly and humbly.

Joe Wieskamp, or “Wiesy”, as Matt Devlin calls him, joined the Raptors on a 10-day contract and renewed for a second 10-dayer the other day. Last night was his first appearance for the team and he immediately made an impact.

Joe’s a hired long-range gun. Toronto is desperate for anyone other than Freddy and Gary to be a consistent threat from the beyond. BLAMMO, Wiesy, in 11:34 minutes of action, goes 3/3 from behind the arc.

The spacing is a relief for the Raptors. It’s oh-so-nice to have a reliable shooter working off of actions that is last in the minds of defenders in a list things to worry about (as opposed to Freddy who everyone’s attention is focussed upon).

In his first bucket for the Raptors, Joe rolls out of a screen for Pascal. Anthony Edwards sags towards Pascal, and Joe waits to pull his quick trigger.

Same, same, but different, Pascal draws three defenders and hits Joe on the strong side.

There’s also the luxury of Joe’s mere existence. Running actions for him or having him slide into spaces – after hitting a few – niggles at defenders’ minds. They have to start factoring in his presence, lightening the load for others and enabling subsequent actions to take place more easily.

Joe didn’t have a perfect night. He might have been too calm, perhaps. On two separate fast breaks he was blocked and stripped while softly approaching the rim.

A bit more awareness and he would have pump-faked the one and drop passed on the other.

Still, a night to be proud of for Joe and a small silver lining in the Raptors’ defeat.