Last season, with the Toronto Raptors’ leadership already having announced the season as a rebuild from the outset, an early season gauntlet quickly thrust the franchise to a 2-12 record and into the race for lottery balls.
The Raptors are now back on track to win games again, but will face a similar uphill climb and downhill finish to last season in their 2025-26 schedule.
They will have to survive a similarly difficult stretch over the first half if they are going to get off on the right foot and feast on weak quality of competition down the stretch if their aspirations of returning to playoff basketball are going to be realized.
For the purposes of this exercise, instead of using the previous season’s record – which can change, sometimes drastically, year-over-year – or next season’s over/under, we’ll take an average of the two in order to both include what’s expected of teams and bake in their recent performance.
As a side note, the Raptors play the second-most back-to-backs this season at 15, but are also tied for the most games where their opponent is on a back-to-back at 18.
Through the first quarter of the upcoming season, Toronto is set to play eleven teams that, between their record last year and their over/under for the upcoming season (via Betway) average a record above .500. This includes all three of its games against the Eastern Conference favourite Cleveland Cavaliers.
Another four of the Raptors first-quarter games are against teams that come in just under .500 by this measure like the San Antonio Spurs, Dallas Mavericks and Philadelphia 76ers. All three of these groups could easily jump into playoff contention. The Spurs in particular are a candidate to far outperform even their 43.5 win over/under.
That leaves five of Toronto’s first 20 games against true bottom-feeders in the likes of the Brooklyn Nets, Charlotte Hornets and Washington Wizards. One of the Raptors’ season-high five game road trips also comes during this initial stretch.
Raptors first quarter of the season opponents:
Cleveland Cavaliers (x3) – 60 predicted wins
Houston Rockets – 54 predicted wins
Milwaukee Bucks (x2) – 46 predicted wins
Atlanta Hawks (x2) – 44 predicted wins
Indiana Pacers (x2) – 44 predicted wins
Memphis Grizzlies – 44 predicted wins
Dallas Mavericks – 40 predicted wins
San Antonio Spurs – 39 predicted wins
Philadelphia 76ers (x2) – 33 predicted wins
Brooklyn Nets (x2) – 24 predicted wins
Charlotte Hornets (x2) -23 predicted wins
Washington Wizards -19 predicted wins
Raptors projected record: 10-10
This isn’t necessarily a death sentence for the Raptors’ playoff chances. They could easily come out on the other end of this section with a record somewhere around even. And if they were to be a few games below .500, it wouldn’t incentivize them to take their foot off the gas the way an early losing record did last season. Toronto will stay the course towards competition even in the face of a subpar start. They don’t have any other choice.
And that’s a good thing, because the competition only gets steeper through the middle of the season leading up to the Feb. 5 trade deadline, with 19 of 30 opponents predicted to have a record above .500 and 11 predicted to have more than 49 wins. One caveat here is that the Boston Celtics’ over/under for the upcoming season is set at 42.5 after they won 61 games last year, due to Jayson Tatum’s Achilles tear and their subsequent restructuring of the roster in the offseason.
Once again Toronto has one five-game road trip during this span and play only five truly terrible teams – the Hornets (x2), Wizards, Nets, and Utah Jazz.
Lead up to trade deadline opponents:
Oklahoma City Thunder – 65 predicted wins
New York Knicks (x2) – 52 predicted wins
Denver Nuggets – 52 predicted wins
Boston Celtics (x3) – 52 predicted wins*
Minnesota Timberwolves – 49 predicted wins
Los Angeles Lakers (x2) – 49 predicted wins
Los Angeles Clippers – 49 predicted wins
Golden State Warriors (x2) – 47 predicted wins
Milwaukee Bucks – 46 predicted wins
Orlando Magic (x2) – 46 predicted wins
Atlanta Hawks (x2) – 44 predicted wins
Indiana Pacers – 44 predicted wins
Sacramento Kings – 38 predicted wins
Miami Heat – 38 predicted wins
Portland Trail Blazers (x2) – 35 predicted wins
Philadelphia 76ers (x2) – 33 predicted wins
Brooklyn Nets – 24 predicted wins
Charlotte Hornets (x2) -23 predicted wins
Washington Wizards -19 predicted wins
Utah Jazz – 18 predicted wins
Raptors projected record: 16-14, (26-24 overall)
The good news on this front is that even if this part of the schedule goes poorly the Raptors don’t have anyone they would have to sell off at the deadline anyway, with no expiring contracts currently on the roster aside from Garrett Temple. On the other hand, if they were to go into the deadline with a strong enough record, there’s a chance newly minted head of basketball operations Bobby Webster and co. could attempt to augment the roster and fill an area of need. However if the front office functions similarly to how they did in the past when Masai Ujiri had the reigns, it’s unlikely they make a splashy mid-season move.
Then, just like last spring when the Raptors’ chances at a top lottery pick were ruined in part thanks to an outlandishly soft schedule down the stretch, the final 30 games of the season should be smooth sailing. The Raptors are set to have 15 games against sub-.500 opponents, many of whom may be positioning for lottery odds at this point. They also have more games against teams in a similar, mid-level tier to themselves. Only eight of 30 games are against squads predicted to have 49 or more wins this time around.
Home stretch
Oklahoma City Thunder – 65 predicted wins
Houston Rockets – 54 predicted wins
New York Knicks (x2) – 52 predicted wins
Denver Nuggets – 52 Denver Nuggets
Boston Celtics -52 predicted wins*
Minnesota Timberwolves – 49 predicted wins
Los Angeles Clippers – 49 predicted wins
Orlando Magic – 46 predicted wins
Milwaukee Bucks – 46 predicted wins
Detroit Pistons (x3) – 45 predicted wins
Indiana Pacers – 44 predicted wins
Memphis Grizzlies – 44 predicted wins
Dallas Mavericks – 40 predicted wins
San Antonio Spurs – 39 predicted wins
Miami Heat (x2) – 38 predicted wins
Sacramento Kings – 38 predicted wins
Chicago Bulls (x3) – 36 predicted wins
Phoenix Suns (x2) – 34 predicted wins
New Orleans Pelicans (x2) – 26 predicted wins
Brooklyn Nets – 24 predicted wins
Washington Wizards -19 predicted wins
Utah Jazz -18 predicted wins
Raptors projected record: 18-12, (44-36 overall)
Based on these rough predictions, the Raptors wind up with 44 wins, not including the two extra NBA Cup makeup games (or semifinal and final games, if we’re being optimistic) that haven’t been scheduled yet. Last season the Pistons nabbed the sixth seed with the same win total. Projecting the Raptors to be somewhere in that area, fighting for the final playoff spot or grabbing a home Play-In game or two is perfectly reasonable.
Of course, all kinds of crazy things happen throughout an NBA season. Past performance and oddsmakers over/unders don’t necessarily account for injury, underperformance, breakout seasons or trades. By the same measure we used to come up with the Raptors’ opponents predicted win totals, the Raptors would have 34 wins this season. But trying to be as objective as possible, I’m projecting them for 10 more. It’ll certainly be a fun season ahead if that’s the case.
Please drop your predictions for the Raptors’ record through these various sections of the schedule and for the season overall in the comments!
Also check out Samson’s piece where he got a group of six NBA scouts to rank the Raptors’ prospects:
With the Raptors stepping out of the depths of their rebuild (hopefully) after they’ve established their core, at least in part, and restocked the cupboard of prospects, I thought it would be fun to wrangle some of the NBA scouts I know and get them to rank 8 of the Raptors young players: Collin Murray-Boyles, Ja’Kobe Walter, Gradey Dick, Jamal Shead, Jonathan Mogbo, Jamison Battle, Ulrich Chomche, and Alijah Martin.
