Four Factors

From the forum thread “Raps Have Highest Free Throw Differential“, we see the Raptors have the worst free throw defferential in the league. But its not about the Raptors not getting to the line as most on the thread have speculated. The team is 19th in the league (and only 0.2 trips below the median team) in getting to the line. And Andrea Bargnani averages the most free throws per game, so missing him so many games hurts this average. The Raptors also have the 12th highest field goal attempts “at rim”, so its also not about getting into the paint enough.

As we have mentioned a couple of times: “the ‘no easy baskets’ philosophy has its drawbacks. It usually equates to more fouls.” Low FG% allowed in the paint is welcomed, but the Raptors need to also manage the foul rate in the paint as well. This is by far the primary reason for the FT differential.

Another point on the Raptors “four factors”: as I was doing this the lowish eFG% stood out as well, so the obvious question emerges as to why that is. I found the one major reason is the team takes the third most FGA from “long 2” range (16-23ft) in the league despite only making 34.7% of them. By contrast, they are 19th in 3pt attempts, despite a reasonable 50.5% eFG% from deep. Conclusion: Bayless (63.6% eFG from 3), Calderon (55.5%) and Kleiza (54.0%) all need to take more 3s.

This needs to change next year.

DeRozan’s vs Bargnani’s productivity

DeRozan has averaged 20 points per game over the last four on reasonable true shooting percentage. James Herbert’s post game noted the Raptors have yet to win when DeRozan takes over 20 field goal attempts (although its only a 5 game sample size – note the Raptors are also 0-4 when he has more than one block in a game, and 1-7 when he takes more then 8 trips to the line…. so these stats can be misleading)

DeRozan had to shoulder much more of the offensive load while Bargnani was out and the big man certainly has been very slow to return to form.

Bargnani since he’s been back:

Four Factors – individuals

It is interesting to also examine the individual contributions to the “four factors” model. Obviously, this is only the offensive production as it is difficult to measure all defensive match ups (e.g. James Johnson does not stand out in the chart below, but if we could accurately measure his impact on defense his “net” four factors contribution it would likely show much better – shows he holds SF to 41.9% eFG% whereas the average SF shoots 48.6%, for example)

Questions? There is a dedicated to “Statophile Q&A” forum thread here . If you prefer to send questions privately, you’re welcome to email me at tomliston [at] gmail [dot] com or find me on Twitter (@Liston).

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  • Arsenalist

    People take long twos when they don’t have the skill/ability to beat their man off the dribble, or if the offensive sets don’t produce enough movement to generate higher percentage shots near the rim.

    I’ve always equated that shot with “settling”.

    • Great point.  As soon as I read “offensive sets don’t produce enough movement” I thought of Dallas’ sets and ball movement.  Sure enough, they take the 4th *least* long 2s in the league.   Teams like DEN, DAL and ORL (all well coached with solid offensive weapons) shoot b/t 50% and 100% more 3s than long 2s.  The Raptors take > 40% more long 2s than 3s.  

      It will be an emphasis for Casey with a proper offseason (and hopefully more offensive weapons) to prepare.

  • Akash_singh

    uggh, the raptors are a pain in the ass this year b/c they foul so much, it really slows the game down. I prefer it this way (we do well when teams miss freethrows), but shit can’t the refs just stop being so damn tight with the whistle.

    • Nilanka15

      The most annoying part for me has been all the offensive fouls committed by screeners.  It’s literally 4-5 calls per game.  And it’s not just one guy….it’s all our bigs (Amir, Gray, Magloire, etc.). 

      I mean really, this far into the season, how have we not got our timing right yet?

      • Theswirsky

        the screener needs to just stand his ground.

        I keep hearing fans and Leo complaining about the guards leaving to quick, which does happen on occasion, but most of the illegal screens have been the bigs thowing a leg, hip, elbow or shoulder out to try and catch the screener.

        Magloire ofcourse does it on purpose.

      • Destro

        Amir is annoying with all the illegal screens,cuz you get to thinking why is this dude in a rush to roll to the aint getting the ball…

        • Amir Johnson is one of the most effective PNR men in the league – according to Synergy Sports his PPP is 1.12.

          • Destro

            miss me with bullshit advance stats that are absolutely meaningless…

            • Synergy includes clips of every PNR play.  So its not just a stat, but clear to anyone’s eyes.

              • drizz

                 Free Amir