Raptors’ brutal six-game road trip concludes with one final stop in the desert.
Full disclosure: I caught very little of the Raptors’ last five games. I have been on vacation and apparently, when given the choice between windswept beaches and sneaking peaks at the Raptors game on a tiny laptop in a hotel lobby, the former is more preferable. This preview is being written in a muggy gate at LAX while the Raptors currently trail the Warriors 66-61 at the half.
Preview
The Suns are pretty transparent in their plan of attack: they’ll play smallball to the extreme. Everything play the Suns run comes from their backcourt. Whether it’s Eric Bledsoe and Goran Dragic running an endless stream of pick-and-rolls, or Isaiah Thomas and Gerald Green sharing duties playing ISO, everything starts from the perimeter.
To complement their attack-oriented wings, the Suns like to spread the floor with at least four shooters at all times. Players like P.J. Tucker and Marcus Morris will often camp in the corner on the weakside, ready at all times to punish the defense should they decide to send help on an initial pick-and-roll. The key will be to help appropriately and to rotate diligently. The Suns make a killing off the temporary lapses in a defense’s rotation, as evidenced by their 4th-ranked offense.
Defensively, the Suns are weak, ranking just 20th in defensive rating. Bledsoe is a hound at the point of attack, but very little resistance awaits at the rim — a product of Phoenix’s smallball strategy. The Suns allow the 5th-highest opponent field-goal percentage at the rim while allowing the 3rd-most attempts at the rim per game. Simply put: the Raptors should be able to get to the rim at will.
The Suns compensate for their lack of shot-blocking by sending help and pressuring the ball whenever possible. They don’t exactly have the personnel to pull it off, but Dragic is smart and players like Bledsoe and Tucker are physical and play above their size. Over-dribbling and lazy passes will be punished.
To assist with the finer points of the Suns’ season, I enlisted the kind help of Sreekar of Bright Side of the Sun, who was kind enough to answer a few of my questions.
RR: Prior to back-to-back losses to the Pelicans and Kevin Durant’s 44-point, 10-rebound, 7-assist outburst, the Suns were winners of six straight. What were the main factors behind the winning streak?
Sreekar: The most obvious difference is Alex Len being moved to the starting lineup. They’re 7-3 now with Len starting alongside Bledsoe, Dragic, Tucker and Markieff and those three losses have been by a combined 9 points. He’s only playing 22 minutes per game even as a starter but he’s putting up 7 points, 7 rebounds and nearly 3 blocks in just those limited minutes. He fits in better with the starting unit than Miles Plumlee, who has regressed a bit this season and is also better coming off the bench. Len is also leading the league in fouls so him and Plumlee each playing about 20 minutes works well for this team.
Another big difference is that all three point guards—Bledsoe, Dragic and Thomas—are healthy and playing better with each other.
Overall, the Suns defense has actually slipped over the last 10 games but their offense has been elite, leading to more wins.
RR: Tell us about Markieff Morris, because that’s the shit that I do like. How has he adapted from being one of the league’s best sixth men in 2013-14, to being a consistent starter in 2014-15?
Sreekar: Markieff has arguably been the most consistent player on the Suns. He quietly gets his points and he possesses the most reliable weapon the team has: his mid-range jumpshot, which he can get off with a variety of moves and typically converts at a relatively high rate. Markieff doesn’t space the floor like Channing Frye did last year because his three-point shooting is pedestrian at best, but he’s one of the league’s best jumpshooters inside the arc.
His weaknesses include help defense and rebounding, the latter of which probably won’t ever be very great because of his small wingspan and average athleticism. Still, Markieff has the team’s highest individual +/- on the season and the second-highest defensive win shares. He’s adjust well to his starting role and is putting up numbers at the same as last year.
RR: What’s up with Goran Dragic this season? The Dragon won over the hearts of many last season with a stellar 2013-14 campaign, capped off with an All-NBA Third team selection. He’s had trouble replicating that success. Why is that?
Sreekar: Goran hasn’t played at an All-NBA level this season but after a slow start to the season, he’s actually adjusted well and is looking much like the Dragon from last year. After averaging just over 14 points and 3 assists in November, Dragic put up 20 points and 5 assists on 54% FG and 41% 3PT in December–numbers that very closely resemble his All-NBA campaign.
On the season, he’s averaging about 3.6 less points per game than last year. The biggest reasons for this are that his three point shooting this season is down from 41% to 36%, and he’s also getting to the free throw line less. His usage rate is also down a few percentage points as Jeff Hornacek has tried to figure out how to best use all three point guards. However, all these numbers are trending up after a tough start to the season so we’ll see if Goran can continue to play better, much like he did last season.
RR: Raptors fans are curious about the Canadian kid on your squad. How is Tyler Ennis doing? Will he ever see the light of day? And if not, why did your GM snag him one spot before the Raptors could at no. 20?
Sreekar: With guys like Dragic, Bledsoe and Thomas on the roster, there was pretty much no way Tyler Ennis was getting much playing time this year. He’s amassed 51 minutes of gametime this season so we can’t really judge him on that quite yet (he did score 11 points in 10 minutes the last time he played, though). He recently had his second 3-game stint with the Suns’ D-League affiliate and he put up 15.7 points, 5 rebounds and 3.3 assists a game.
Jeff Hornacek has praised Ennis a lot and the Suns obviously like him. Ennis looks like he has the tools and poise to be a solid NBA point guard so we’ll just have to see what kind of role he might have next year.
Or maybe the Suns just like drafting Canadian point guards.
Last game: Raptors 104, Suns 100 (Nov. 24, ACC)
In their last contest, the Raptors survived a torrid fourth quarter barrage from the Suns. Jonas Valanciunas thoroughly dominated whomever the Suns pitted against him. Valanciunas dropped 15 points in the first quarter (5-of-5 shooting) while landing Miles Plumlee in foul trouble just two minutes in (remember: Suns can’t guard the rim). Valanciunas finished the game with 27 points (10-of-11 shooting) with 11 rebounds in just 32 minutes played as the Raptors looked strong through three quarters.
Desperate to spark his squad, Suns head coach Jeff Hornacek trotted out a five-out unit to attack the Raptors’ bench. The Suns shot 7-of-10 from deep and nearly took the lead in the final two minutes, but Lowry forced Thomas into a turnover and ended a nail-biting collapse.
Positional Match-ups
Guards
Eric Bledsoe, Goran Dragic, Isaiah Thomas vs. Kyle Lowry, Terrence Ross, Greivis Vasquez, Lou Williams
Both teams are loaded in the backcourt. The Raptors will be at a disadvantage having played last night in Golden State, but even with all things equal, the Suns have a slight edge here. Lowry is playing out of his mind this season, and Dragic has slipped some, but it’s just too much to overcome. With DeMar DeRozan, the matchup would sway in favor of Toronto.
Advantage: Suns
Forwards
P.J. Tucker, Markieff Morris, Marcus Morris, Gerald Green vs. Landry Fields, James Johnson, Amir Johnson, Patrick Patterson
Although the Suns pack a heavy dose of three-point shooting with their 3/4s, their defensive shortcomings simply cannot be overcome. The Raptors are shorthanded, but they have the personnel to handle smallball lineups between James Johnson, Amir Johnson, Patrick Patterson and potentially even Tyler Hansbrough making speedy rotations around the perimeter. Look for Patterson to log heavy minutes.
Advantage: Raptors, but it’s close
Center
Miles Plumlee, Alex Len vs. Jonas Valanciunas, Chuck Hayes
I really cannot envision a scenario in which Chuck Hayes plays a meaningful part against the Suns. He’s too slow to rotate out to the perimeter. Luckily, Valanciunas has been balling of late, and if the Raptors are wise, they will prioritize Valanciunas in the post, or even a few pick-and-rolls to spice up the mundane (but effective!) mid-block, pump-fake x 10,000, sweeping right hook in the lane move. Let’s hope for more of this:
Advantage: Raptors
Prediction: Raptors 110, Suns 106
Playing the last game of an exhausting road trip over the holidays is not easy, but the Raptors have looked resilient in each game. Against teams like the Bulls and Blazers, it wasn’t enough. Against a sub-contender like Phoenix, the Raptors should have enough in them to out-gun the Suns in a shootout.
