Gameday: Raptors vs. Lakers

True or false, you’re already nervous to check the score halfway through the game tonight? Toronto Raptors fans are a home loss to the Lakers capping off a bad 0-3 week away from a complete nervous breakdown.

The Raptors have had a rough week, to say the least. They’ve lost a stinker to the Pistons, got punished in the 4^th quarter by Chicago, slipped out of 3^rd in the standings and lost Kyle Lowry to injury. This is either the absolute best time to play one of the league’s worst teams in the LA Lakers, or an emotional breaking point for a team that is seeming troublingly less and less interested in playing for their coach and believing in each other.

What are these teams playing for?

Raps are now giving up over 50% shooting on 2pt FGA on the season, so that’s fun. The Lakers started the season off as a historically bad defense, but since then have regressed in their ineptitude to now simply being one of this year’s worst, as opposed to anything all-time bad. What is it that I’m getting at here? The Raps and Lakers are currently tied for the third worst opponent FG% on the season, with both giving up 46.2%. So, the loser of this game is likely to be the winner of sole possession of the third worst defense by that metric. Just want everyone out there to know what’s on the line.

Fun fact to avoid our misery by point at someone else’s:

There are a half a dozen different key metrics like margin of victory where the Lakers are ranked 26^th in the league, which is non-coincidentally where they sit in the overall standings. The Lakers being the 5^th worst team in the league is sneakily fantastic, because it means that if they slip just one spot in the lottery to the 6^th overall pick then they’ll lose their 1^st round pick to the 76ers (via Phoenix from the Steve Nash sign and trade). That’s an awful lot of awfully bad tanking all for nothing. Kobe ain’t gonna be happy. Speaking of, to put in perspective just how unapologetically Kobe was dominating this team with his own shots before going down to injury, he hasn’t played a game since January 21^st and he STILL leads the Lakers in field goal attempts. That is flat out ridiculous.

Raptors perspective:

According to ESPN’s Tom Haberstroh, the Raptors now have a 60.6% of finishing in 4^th and playing the Wizards, compared to only a 34.5% chance of reclaiming the 3^rd place matchup with the Bucks. Say what you will about how nice it would be to walk into a matchup with a coaching advantage over the already walking away from his job Randy Wittman, but I’d prefer to play the team that doesn’t have John Wall, Nene and Bradley Beal. These games matter for playoff jockeying. But more important than that, they matter for helping to right the mental ship for a team that looks like it’s struggling through PTSD. Terrence Ross might be the most consistent player for the Raptors over the last 7 days… so yeah; this team has a lot of players who need to get their games back on track.

The good news is that the Lakers and Byron Scott have an odd allergy towards generating quality 3pt opportunities for their team. The numbers don’t back up Byron Scott’s insane early season stance essentially outright opposing 3-pointers, but the Lakers do not take many, and the ones they do attempt are not often the product of ball movement after breaking down the defense. That’s good, because teams that do that tend to marley-whop the Raptors with just that kind of shot.

Kyle Lowry is out indefinitely with his back contusion. At this point, there is no point in bringing Lowry back before the playoffs unless he is 100% healthy and not at risk to further agitate back spasms. As bad as things have been and as troubling as the slip down the standings is, this team isn’t going anywhere in the first round of the playoffs without a fully capable Lowry. Rest is good. Bebe was just recalled from the D-League’s Mad Ants, I would not expect that to mean that you’ll see him entering the game. Though the Jordan Hill matchup does suggest that his offensive rebounding will have Casey frustratingly cycling through his backup bigs to find someone able to keep him off the glass.

Key Matchup

Jordan Clarkson has been the biggest scorer for the Lakers lately. There’s no need to worry yourself that he’s been doing so efficiently though. That matches him up ideally with DeMar DeRozan, who is looking like he’s finally regaining his explosiveness following the hip injury but has yet to remember what efficient might mean. We’re likely to see these two gunning, and as down as I’ve been on his decision making this year, I’m happy to throw my lot in for DeMar in that matchup.

The sneaky important matchup though could be Terrence Ross against Ryan Kelly. The Lakers have been playing Kelly a bunch of minutes at the 3 spot recently, and the results have been BAD. Kelly’s FG% has fallen flatly off a cliff in this experiment, struggling to keep up with wing players and find open space on the other end; he’s lost his legs completely. An opportunity for Terrence Ross to beat his man off the dribble, create clear separation off of pin-down screens for open spot-up 3’s and a defensive matchup where he is far less likely to fail in following his man through screens is all a recipe for a possible TRoss breakout game. We’ll believe it when we see it, but the Raptors would be foolish not to try and exploit this matchup.