The Toronto Raptors have the eighth best net rating in the NBA, and the fourth best net rating in the Eastern Conference. If you’re not familiar with net rating, it’s basically an average of how well a given team outperforms its opponents. It’s a bit more complicated than that, but that’s the vanilla version. The Raptors’ net rating of +3.4 means that on average, they outscore opponents by 3.4 points if each team is given 100 possessions on both offense and defense.
That might not sound impressive, but it is. Only three teams have a net rating of +5.0 or better this season: the Cleveland Cavaliers (+5.2), Golden State Warriors (+13.4), and San Antonio Spurs (+14.5). So the Raptors are, overall, in elite company.
But when you break down net rating into its two parts — offensive rating and defensive rating — a worrisome trend emerges. The Spurs and Warriors both sport top-3 offensive ratings, and the Raptors aren’t far behind, at fifth-best. When you take a look at defensive rating, the Spurs, Warriors, and Cavaliers are each in the top 5. But the Raptors are much further behind — ranked 11th — with a defensive rating of 100.9.
That means that the Raptors are a slightly above average defensive team on the season. That’s good, right? Not so fast. Through their last 10 games, the Raptors have the 17th-best defense in the league. They’re slipping. But why?
A good assumption would be that DeMarre Carroll’s absence has negatively impacted the Raptors’ defense. Carroll’s only played in five of the Raptors last 10 games, and has only played 23.6 minutes per game since coming back. Carroll is widely regarded as a very good defender, so it would be natural to assume that the Raptors’ defense would slip with him on the bench. But that’s not the case. In fact, the Raptors’ defense has been worse with Carroll on the floor lately. His defensive rating of 106.7 since returning is a testament to that.
Only one player in the Raptors’ regular rotation has a worse defensive rating than Carroll over the Raptors’ last 10 games, and that’s Jonas Valanciunas. Valanciunas has never been a great defender by any stretch of the imagination. He’s big, sure, so he’s often able to feint good defense, especially in one-on-one situations. But he rotates poorly, gambles from time to time, and sometimes doesn’t even appear to try. As the Raptors’ last line of defense at the rim, if he fails, the team fails.
And unfortunately, he fails a lot. Since returning from injury, opponents within six feet of the rim shoot 61.5 percent from the field when Valanciunas is guarding them. And when he’s matched up against stretch bigs, he doesn’t fare much better. On the season, opponents shoot 44 percent from behind the 3-point line when Valanciunas is guarding them, well above their collective average of 36.7 percent. No matter how you look at it, Valanciunas’ defensive shortcomings are a major reason the Raptors’ defense has struggled.
In fairness, it’s not just him. The team as a whole has slipped mightily lately.
The Raptors allow teams to shoot 36.7 from behind the arc against them this season, which is the fifth-worst mark in the league. Through their last 10 games, that figure is 38.1 percent.
Perhaps worst of all, however, is the Raptors’ inability to force turnovers. Opponents have turned the ball over just 11.9 times per game against the Raptors in their last 10 games, which is good (bad, technically) for second-worst in the league, ahead of only the New York Knicks. The eye test agrees. The Raptors seem more interested in protecting the paint than closing off passing lanes or contesting 3-pointers.
I was at the Raptors’ game against the Charlotte Hornets on New Year’s Day, and sitting along the baseline, I saw the game from an entirely different perspective from what I’m used to seeing on TV. I was shocked by how easily the Hornets were able to swing the ball around the perimeter for open 3-pointers on the wings off of Kemba Walker’s dribble penetration. Walker got into the paint at will, would be greeted by one of Bismack Biyombo or Valanciunas, and kick the ball out. It shouldn’t be so easy for teams to get good looks, especially from behind the arc. Luckily, the Hornets didn’t convert on many of their open 3-pointers and the Raptors escaped with a win.
Kyle Lowry, James Johnson, and Carroll are the only Raptors to regularly pressure opponents with the ball and force tough passes. That’s evident in just about every steal metric, from steals per 36 minutes (2.2, 1.5, and 1.9, respectively), to steal percentage (31.9 percent, 23.4 percent, and 28.6 percent, respectively). Outside of those three, though, the Raptors don’t put much emphasis on forcing opponents into tough situations. DeRozan in particular has the worst steal percentage of any non-big on the team.
That’s a reflection of the team’s apparent defensive philosophy: Let opponents do what they want, just don’t let them get to the rim.
In Michael Jordan’s NBA, that would’ve been a successful strategy. But in 2016, where teams place a premium on ball movement and getting open looks from behind the arc, it’s unacceptable. The Raptors have the personnel to be an excellent defensive team. They’re athletic, long, versatile, and smart. But they’re not an excellent defensive team.
I’m not prepared to put the blame on Dwane Casey, even though his defensive schemes are a big part of why the Raptors’ defense works this way. That’s because his schemes haven’t stopped Lowry and Carroll from playing their scrappy style of defense. No, the Raptors’ defensive woes are the product of poor individual effort and a lack of communication. And with Biyombo losing minutes to a healthy Valanciunas, that’s a huge concern. Biyombo’s a great defender, but more importantly, he’s an outstanding communicator on defense.
This puts the Raptors in a bit of a pickle. Valanciunas is too good not to play heavy minutes, but Biyombo’s defense is so, so valuable to a team that struggles to put forth consistent effort on that side of the floor. Cory Joseph, also an outstanding defender, has seen his minutes slip as well as Terrence Ross continues to blossom on offense.
Do you see the trend? Casey values offense more than defense, whether he’s aware of it or not. The Raptors are a fantastic offensive team, and if that’s the way they beat opponents in the regular season, so be it. But come playoff time, the Raptors’ iso-heavy offense will struggle like it has the past two years. It’s then that they’ll need to rely on their defense.
Hopefully, the Raptors’ weak links will improve markedly by then or Casey will adjust his rotation to maximize the Raptors’ defensive abilities. But right now, we’re seeing a rather disturbing trend. Let’s hope they figure it out soon.
