The few of you who follow me on Twitter have probably realized by now that I’m a huge fan of Kyle Lowry, to the point where it may be unhealthy and occasionally it causes me to say things that may or may not be insane. I’m fairly certain that everyone who reads or writes for Raptors Republic are big fans as well, but I’m prepared to take things even further and throw Lowry’s name into the MVP conversation where it belongs.
Now, I’m not talking about “in the conversation” as in “he should probably win the award” because Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors are having an historic season and even I am not crazy enough to make that suggestion. I’m talking about “in the conversation” as in “if a certain Raptors blogger went Tonya Harding on Steph Curry we would have to put Kyle Lowry on the short list to replace him as the MVP”. He should be in the conversation as one of those guys we acknowledge has no chance at winning the award but gets his name mentioned as a show of respect for everything he does for his team. He deserves to be “in the conversation” in the same way players like Chauncey Billups were in it – guys who are probably not one of the 5 best players in the league but do so much for their team you let them hang around on the fringe of the MVP conversation and throw them a few 3rd place votes so the official record shows that they were a cut below the eventual MVP but still a cut above the rest of the league.
The MVP Case for Kyle Lowry
RPM:
The one thing that has stuck in my mind all season is the Raptors RPM rankings relative to other teams who are near the top of the NBA and that’s what got me thinking that Lowry has a legitimate case as a fringe MVP candidate. Here are some of the top teams and the rankings of their highest-rated players:
Golden State: 1, 3, 20, 47, 50, 80
San Antonio: 4, 11, 33, 35, 67, 79
OKC: 2, 9, 76
Cleveland: 5, 12, 38, 77
LAC: 7,8, 55, 56
Boston: 24, 26, 30, 36, 61
Atlanta: 13, 44, 51, 72
Mia: 21, 70
Just to drive the point home I’ll include a couple of teams that have been great recently but inconsistent overall:
Utah: 25, 40, 64, 65
Portland: 34, 48, 57, 74
All of this is to show just how jarring it is when you look at the highest ranking Raptors according to RPM:
Toronto: 6, 93, 101
Obviously RPM is not some flawless metric that measures player value perfectly but it is kind of surprising to see the Raptors have so few players rate well given their position in the league – there is no team near their level with less representation in the top 80, with Lowry being the only Raptor who rates well. The Raptors really seem to be driven by one player.
Individual Statistics:
Lowry ranks first or second among rotation players on the team in every major statistical category that isn’t blocks, rebounds or defensive rating(he’s 3rd in dRTG). He’s 2nd in scoring volume to DeMar DeRozan and 2nd in scoring efficiency to Jonas Valanciunas. He’s 1st in three point attempts and 2nd in percentage. He leads in steals, he’s 2nd in free throws and he’s 2nd in offensive rating.
When you consider that he’s ahead of DeRozan and Terrence Ross in rebounding and doesn’t lag very far behind Patrick Patterson and Luis Scola in blocks he can be seen as a sort of mini-Lebron James. He’s one of five guards listed at 6’2” or shorter with a block percentage greater than 1, one of seven with a rebound percentage greater than 7 and the only player on both of those lists. His all-around production at his size is very uncommon and it allows him to be the glue holding this fragile team together.
Team Impact:
Daniel Hackett of Raptors HQ published something that I was already working on myself so instead of rehashing it I’ll just link to it here. I’ve only linked to the second part but do yourself a favour and read the whole thing, it’s great work.
When you look at the two and three man lineups Lowry seems to lift everyone up. The Raptors rotation as a whole is very unstable and it can be hard to find combinations of players that bring enough complimentary talents to perform well consistently – lineups tend to lack some combination of shooting, ball pressure, interior defense or rebounding. With Lowry none of that seems to matter. He is present in most of the positive combinations of players and conspicuously absent in most of the negative combinations because he’s the guy who is able to adapt and make things work. He can spot up as an extra shooter when Cory Joseph is the PG, he sets the table for Bismack Biyombo and Valanciunas on the pick and roll and he hits Patterson and Ross for open jumpers. Whatever skills his lineup lacks can be provided by Lowry, allowing everyone else to just concentrate on the one or two aspects of the game they’re proficient. In. The Raptors have other players who are somewhat reliable at getting their own offense like DeRozan and Valanciunas but those players struggle to be consistent impact players because of their specialized skillsets. Lowry has no such issues because he’s an all-around beast at both ends of the floor.
Verdict:
To reiterate, none of this is to say that Lowry is the man who should actually win the MVP award this season, everyone knows Steph Curry has that locked up barring an historic drop off for him and his Warriors over the next couple of months. But when you consider the Raptors success and his production relative to that of his team it doesn’t seem far-fetched to put Lowry in the company of the rest of the top-tier also-rans for the season, especially if you rate the most valuable player in the context of his value to his team as opposed to the overall quality of his play. Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul, Kevin Durant and Lebron James are undoubtedly better overall players but their teams are constructed better or they have other dominant players on their teams so there is less pressure on them to perform. The fact that everything the Raptors do hinges on the performance of Lowry makes up for the gap in talent that may exist between him and those superstars and should put him in their company as far as overall value is concerned. Lowry gets praise as a legitimate all-star player and as a good player on a good team but it’s time to take that a step further and acknowledge him as one of the league’s truly elite players. He’s no longer merely a member of the Raptors all-star backcourt, one of many contributing factors to the teams success. It’s become pretty clear that he’s the driving force behind the team and the superstar that makes it possible for his teammates to succeed to the extent that they have. KLOE.
