The Raptors have had a marvelous 2016 thus far. Wins have been aplenty, 2 seven-game homestands, and to balance out the initial rough patch in the schedule, the Raptors have found a comfortable stride behind the relatively “light” (if that even exists in the NBA) schedule thus far.
But obviously, these are still NBA matchups and can’t be taken for granted, so for all that and more, the Raptors should be nothing but applauded for their efforts throughout the first 61 games of the season, which have catapulted them to second place in the east and on pace to easily break the franchise record for the best regular season ever. A trend that for the past couple of seasons, has been the trademark phrase this time of year. Let’s keep that in mind, as fans of a franchise that has basically experienced little to no success in our history.
So with that, I’ll get to the obligatory nitpicking that unites us all, as Raptors fans. We always find a reason to complain, and hey, Gregg Popovich didn’t turn out being one of the greatest coaches ever because he celebrated wins. After Sunday’s loss to Houston, Dwane Casey will be no different I’m sure, in picking the Raptors apart, who evidently have at least a few areas to clean up as the playoffs draw closer.
Sprinkled in with the 6 wins in the Raptors past 10 games, have been 4 rather disappointing losses. Losses that although were against very different teams, were lost in a starkly similar manner.
The Raptors have lost their last 4 to the likes of Minnesota, Chicago, Detroit and Houston – teams that have varying roster mixes, but they were all teams that purely dominated the Raptors in the second halves of their ball games. In fact, it wasn’t even close.
Those teams outscored the Raptors in each of the second halves by 18, 16, 13, and 16 respectively (an average of 15.75 points) with monster performances by Karl-Anthony Towns, Doug McDermott, Derrick Rose, and James Harden.
While it may seem surprising that we’re 6-4 in the past 10 the way things have been seeming to go thus far this season, a closer look at the Raptors defensive numbers post all-star break would show that things are not as rosy as they may seem. The Raptors are 6-3 after the break, and have significantly regressed defensively (ICYMI: Blake’s piece yesterday about the Raptors’ defence, or lack thereof).
Not only has the Raptors defense been bad post-all-star break, it has been especially bad in the second halves of these past 4 losses. Not to mention, the offense has been terrible as well. Here’s a quick breakdown of the Raptors stats, and their opponents stats in the second half of the past 4 losses.
Mind you, none of these 4 games were really “blowouts” in the full sense of the word. That is, the Raptors played each of these strong in the first half, with the weakest first half coming against Detroit where the Raps were tied at halftime. In the other games, the Raps were up 13 on the Wolves at halftime, were up 6 at halftime to a Butler-less Chicago Bulls squad, and 18 on Sunday against the Rockets. So while that means the second halves have been poor, the Raptors have continued in 2016, to start games off extremely well, something that earlier in the season, was a daunting challenge for the Raps. In just one season, we’ve seen this team flip the script completely in the way they start games, and the way they start second halves.
But what does all of this mean? What does that go to show about the team and their chances in the playoffs? The fact of the matter is that the Raptors have already shown their share of mental lapses in the past 2 playoff series against Brooklyn and Washington – and for Dwane Casey and his staff, poor starts in the second half, means a mental issue may be at play. And mental anything (except tough), is bad news for the playoffs.
On the flip side to the argument, perhaps all of this just boils down just Xs and Os. Before Sunday night’s game against the Rockets, Luis Scola had become somewhat of a “scapegoat” with the Raptors’ recent struggles (as I said, nitpicking). Scola’s been the clear odd-man-out who seems like a permanent substitute power forward for the Raptors. It’s almost as if teams are thinking he’s filling in for an injured starter, before actually realizing he is our daily starter. And that’s not a knock on Luis, so much as a fact of the state of affairs of our starting lineup.
While Scola is a reliable big-man that can add valuable bench minutes to a contending team’s rotation, he can’t be the daily answer. Scola’s been up and down as a starter this year, but in the second half collapses, his performances have been mediocre to say the least. In the second half of the past 4 losses to the Wolves, Bulls, Pistons and Rockets, Scola has shot 42% from the field, 25% from 3, and only grabbed 0.5 boards in 7 minutes of action.
While that might not seem significant on its own, a closer look would point out that Scola is a starter. That means that for the Raptors, since Dwane Casey will resort to his starting lineup after halftime, Scola’s minutes have mostly been in the third quarter to start the second half, which is usually when the Raptors get burned the most in their losses. Again, that’s not a knock on Luis Scola, but it just might mean that the Raptors lack of true starting power forward material catches up to them at times.
Some fans may also argue that this falls on Dwane Casey – perhaps he should have to shoulder the blame for the lack of getting his team organized, making mid-game adjustments, and recognizing failing matchups and nipping them at the bud, rather than allowing them to let games slip away. But alas, the Raptors are 41-20, and so questioning Casey at this point would seem excessive. So I’ll refrain from continuing to do that, especially considering some of our wins have been with amazing second halves.
So what does that leave for the Raptors in their final 21 games of the season? While a lot is yet to be determined, including playoff seeding, the continued success of their backcourt, and the potential return of their prized free-agent signing, one thing is for absolute certain for Dwane Casey as the playoffs come closer. 48 minutes of basketball wins you games. Halves, quarters, runs, and mini-runs mean absolutely nothing if they’re followed up with bad defense and stagnate offense.
A good time to start practicing the 48-minute method will be tonight against the Nets, as the Raps look to put the pedal to the metal early, and keep the Nets out for good.
