The Toronto Raptors have returned home and will host the Boston Celtics for a 7:30 tip on Sportsnet One on Friday.
The biggest wrinkle to the game may be that it’s the fourth game in five nights for the Raptors, who went to overtime on Thursday. They could be exhausted, and it’s made for plenty of suggestion in the mentions and comments that Kyle Lowry and perhaps others should take a breather for this one. After all, Lowry ranks third in the NBA in total minutes, the Celtics have aggressive, physical guard defenders, and the game doesn’t mean a great deal to Toronto in the larger picture.
There is definitely evidence that people outside of the Raptors Republic bubble believe that – the Raptors opened as six-point favorites and that line shrunk as small as Raptors -1 at one point this afternoon, a major swing from an opening line. Considering the Celtics are without Jae Crowder and have been playing poorly without him, even an exhausted Raptors team should be favored at home by more than a point or two (which suggests Boston would be favored on neutral court). If we’re to assume oddsmakers know things – and there’s evidence that they, or the betters who matter enough to move their lines, do – then Jonas Valanciunas is probably out, and someone else is probably joining him.
Check back for updates. For right now…
Jonas Valanciunas is active but may not play
The Lithuanian has missed back-to-back games, allowing Bismack Biyombo to absolutely go off as an interim starter. Depth at a scarce position is a beautiful thing, and it lets the Raptors take their time in bringing Valanciunas back from his left hand contusion. Valanciunas isn’t expected out long-term, there’s just no need to rush him back into action when the replacement option (and the silver lining of getting Jason Thompson minutes to get up to speed) can hang just fine.
He was officially a game-time decision, and while he’s active, he’s not starting and he may not be used, according to Doug Smith of the Toronto Star.
UPDATE:
Jonas Valanciunas is listed as active but tells me he will NOT play tonight for #Raptors vs #Celtics. Says left hand still in pain.
— Kyle Draper (@KyleDraperTV) March 18, 2016
Kill ’em, Casey
Dwane Casey became the first coach in franchise history to win 200 games, which led to an excellent pre-game reflection.
Recalling his first win with Toronto, Dwane Casey says, “Andrea Bargnani was the star player.”
— Jay King (@ByJayKing) March 18, 2016
Casey’s had his own ups and downs but to be the franchise’s all-time leader in wins and winning percentage when his first season was an open tank job from management is pretty impressive. The Raptors are four wins from setting a franchise-record for a third consecutive season.
Raptors updates
DeMarre Carroll remains out, we can probably assume Valanciunas won’t play, James Johnson is out with plantar fasciitis, and we have no intel on potential rest. Until we hear otherwise, the rotation will look something like this:
PG: Lowry, Cory Joseph, Delon Wright
SG: Norman Powell, T.J. Ross
SF: DeMar DeRozan, Bruno Caboclo
PF: Luis Scola, Patrick Patterson
C: Biyombo, Thompson, Lucas Nogueira
As I wrote in the full game preview, Powell starting would have been expected even if Johnson were available. Johnson has been laboring through a foot issue for some time, perhaps explaining his uneven play and frequent DNP-CDs of late. Getting him right is important, as he’s the team’s primary Carroll insurance for certain matchups.
Celtics updates
Jae Crowder (ankle) and Jonas Jerebko (ankle) are out. With those absences, the rotation will look something like this:
PG: Isaiah Thomas, Marcus Smart, Terry Rozier
SG: Avery Bradley, R.J. Hunter
SF: Evan Turner, James Young, Coty Clarke
PF: Amir Johnson, Jordan Mickey
C: Jared Sullinger, Kelly Olynyk, Tyler Zeller
And yes, that’s Turner starting and not Smart, as head coach Brad Stevens announced before the game that Smart will come off the bench for this one. The Villain is one of my top-five favorite players in the NBA, so this is great for me, and that’s all that matters. The guess here is Bradley draws Lowry, Turner takes DeRozan, and the C’s try to hide Thomas on Powell.
The Celtics play fairly positionless, so take this depth chart with a grain of salt. They’ll play Clarke at the four some, Sullinger with another center, and go super-small with two point guards and Bradley. It’s fun, and it’s necessary for them to goose their offense by trying some unconventional lineups, especially while thinned out.
The line
With all of the movement, the line has settled at Raptors -1.5 or Raptors -1 on most books. A whopping 73 percent of public action is on Toronto, but that could be an information gap. The over-under is way up at 211, a nod to Boston’s top-three pace (and perhaps their recent lack of defense without Crowder).
I’m not making a call until we know who might rest.
