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Playoff Mailbag: Game 5 anxiety, HoopTalks live podcast, and more

This might be the last mailbag for a while. Because what's left to say in this series? Let's play, already.

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With back-to-back days off, we’re back for the usual #RRMailbag. This will be the second mailbag of the first round because of all the extra off days, and depending on how the rest of the week goes, we might just ditch it for a while. There just aren’t enough questions day-to-day except when things are really bad. Anyway, if you want to catch up on all the previous mailbags, you can find them here.

Before we go ahead: We’ve started a Patreon page at patreon.com/RaptorsRepublic. If you appreciate the content we produce, want to support RR, and have the means to do so, any contribution is greatly appreciated and will help us continue to do what we do (and try to do even more).

Alright, let’s get this money.

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Raptors questions for the present

I think you should feel fine, to be honest. I definitely understand the cargo shorts-sized pockets of the fanbase that are incredibly nervous given how the last two years, and last 21, have gone, but I try not to let that set in too much. This team won 56 games, they’re a very good two-way team, and they’ve no-showed two halves that have cost them. They can’t afford missteps like that anymore, obviously, but I’m a believer that the Raptors are better than the Pacers, and this is the reason you play so hard for home-court advantage, right here.

Having said that, the margin for error is now essentially nil. Once they dropped a game at home, I amended my prediction from Raptors in five to Raptors in seven because of how tough it is to win on the road twice in a playoff series. There can’t be any more bad games, Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan need to play better, and as reductive as it seems, the Raptors have to come out tonight like their season is on the line. Because…

If the winner of that game is Indiana, then maybe. I just think the momentum would be too strong going back to Indiana with back-to-back wins, having again stolen home-court, to expect the Raptors to take Game 6 on the road and then double back. If the Raptors win Game 5, they’re definitely sitting pretty, too, and you have to like your chances of closing out with two chances.

In statistical terms, the Raptors are still in good shape. The favorite still wins a series tied at 2-2 78.8 percent of the time in NBA history, and they’ve won Game 5 on 73.3 percent of occasions (I’m surprised the former is higher than the latter). If the Raptors win Game 5, those odds improve to 92.1 percent for the series, but they drop to 27.5 percent if they lose. That’s a major swing.

So, yeah, maybe win this one.

I’m not sure DeRozan needs Thompson as a justification of any sort, for reasons good and bad. For one, DeRozan is a star player struggling, and it’s happened to plenty of guys. For another, Thompson wasn’t nearly as bad as DeRozan’s been, thanks in part to being a better 3-point shooter and defender, so he was able to impact the game in more ways. And as a final point, DeRozan has actually been, like, historically bad over three playoff seasons now, by All-Star standards (only Stephon Marbury and Lowry have a lower shooting percentage among All-Stars with at least 250 playoff field goal attempts).

This is a mixed answer. No, DeRozan doesn’t really need a comparable to feel better, but even if he did, there really aren’t any who have shot this poorly.

Unfortunately, I don’t. I continue to hope that he’ll make the right call and swap Luis Scola out for Patrick Patterson, but I’ve written that same thing about 87 times this season and it hasn’t happened, so I’m losing hope. That, to me, is the obvious change, and assuming time allows, I’ll have something more in-depth on that opinion this afternoon, though it’s well-established by now.

I don’t think he’d make a tweak anywhere else. The other starters right now are all staying put, and the only non-Scola question is whether Casey rolls with a nine-man rotation or continues to work Norman Powell in.

I liked this idea a lot when Lavoy Allen was still starting for the Pacers. He’s a small enough offensive threat that you could stick DeRozan on him defensively and just gang-rebound, but it’s far tougher to ask DeRozan to check Myles Turner, or have him check Ian Mahinmi and then make Jonas Valanciunas chase Turner. And DeRozan’s the guy you’d have to hide – Carroll is staying on George, and you’d be bringing Powell in to handle Monta Ellis.

I actually think the most likely lineup change is Jason Thompson starting for Scola. That’s the way for Casey to keep his coverages and rotations the same but get a slight edge back on the defensive end, though Thompson won’t help at all with the Pacers abandoning the weak wing to help on the pick-and-roll. I hope I’m wrong and Patterson starts.

It might be, yeah. The trade deadline is long gone, but the Raptors also added Raptors 905 after the D-League had publicly said they were done expanding for the year, so anything is possible. I just don’t know what you’d offer the Pacers, unless Drake changes his album art for Friday to be sitting on top of the Chase Tower.

Raptors questions for the future

Man, Celtics-Hawks has been so good. I took Hawks in seven and thought it would be a great series with a Hawks team I really like emerging as a real challenger to the Cavaliers. When Avery Bradley and Kelly Olynyk went down, I thought it was done. The job the Celtics have done the last two games is remarkable, and shout out to Isaiah Thomas. I still think Paul Millsap and company get it done and push the Cavs deep in a series. The Celtics with Kevin Durant or Al Horford are going to be terrifying,

Right now the answer is probably “everyone.” They’ve done scouting and research, of course, but the combine isn’t even for several weeks still, let alone individual workouts and, just as important, planning for the offseason as a whole. I’ve gone over some draft prospects I like/dislike in earlier mailbags, but I won’t start going over video and formulating a strong opinion until after the playoffs. For now, I’ll just say what I always say: I think they only bring in one rookie next year, whether that’s because of trade or draft-and-stash, and they should draft based on who they perceive the best talent to be, not for a perceived fit on a roster that very likely won’t look the same by the time the rookie is ready to contribute.

Yeah, I’m not really interested in Dwyane Wade, either.

(I kid, don’t kill me, Heat fans.)

Do you mean like a specific Jurassic Park-themed jersey? I think it’s an alright idea, but with only four “official” jerseys allowed each season (I was told this is the rule, though the Cavs have used more this season), I don’t think there’s room for it. I’d really like them to just use the purple throwbacks more. They’re awesome, and while I like the OVO look fine, the purple is so unique to the league and always gets a rise out of fans. Free the purple.

Raptors questions in the sense that if I keep writing non-basketball things this feature will probably be extinct

It’s been pretty bad. The podcast after Game 4 was actually kind of fun, I was just in such a rush to do the Quick Reaction, podcast, and post-game notes and quotes that I had to zoom through some of them a little quicker than I would have liked. This mailbag…there’s just not a ton to ask right now, given it’s the second mailbag of the series already. I may pocket them for a bit, or at least limit it to one per-series.

This is a phenomenal question. I’m choosing Boris Diaw and Boban Marjanovic. They’re not a duo in the same vein as Tyrion and Varys as a two-headed (and one-dicked) political monster, but I definitely think Diaw is among the league’s most stately. I find it hard to believe he wouldn’t be able to end wars over wine with his charm, although I suppose there’s a slight risk he just stays in Dorne forever. Marjanovic would be the muscle to make sure nobody takes Diaw’s kindness for weakness.

I also think Nic Batum and Jeremy Lin would be a really good duo. Coming in last would be Bruno Caboclo and Lucas Nogueira, who would be slaughtered by the Sons of the Harpy mid-dance party within their first hour on the job.

OK, so, I probably haven’t plugged this enough: Dan, Will, Sean, and I are doing a live podcast recording as part of the Hoop Talks series at Tallboys on Wednesday at 7. It’s free, but space is limited, so reserve one of the last remaining spots here.

As for the question, I’m going to bet on Will if the Raptors lose and Dan if not. Unfortunately, I won’t be drinking, so I will come in last place. It will allow me to better antagonize Dan, though, to the point that he’ll surely commit a flagrant foul in our game of one-on-one. As if I needed free points.
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As a reminder, if you appreciate the content we produce, want to support RR, and have the means to do so, we’ve started a Patreon page at patreon.com/RaptorsRepublic. Any contribution is greatly appreciated and will help us continue to do what we do, and try to do even more.

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