The Raptors may have come out of Game 2 with a win, but the 97.9 offensive rating that they’re sporting so far in the playoffs is a Spielbergian terror. That number would have them slotted right in between the Lakers and Sixers in terms of regular season rankings. The Raptors have to play better offensively if they’re going to have a chance of avenging the extinction that the Heat brought upon them back in the Crateceous era. Despite last night’s sloppy second half performance, there is a lot to look at that did work to try and incorporate more of moving forward.
Pace. The Raps need to push the ball more offensively. The Raptors scored at will in transition in the first quarter, especially off of Miami turnovers. Imposing a faster pace of play on the Heat had their guards flummoxed, and making bad decisions. The Heat countered by slaughtering the Raptors in the second and third quarters with a constant diet of old man isolation ball in the half court, with Wade and Joe Johnson each punishing the Raptors in slow motion. Over and over again Dwane Casey was visible on the sidelines yelling at his team to push the ball and run whenever they would turn it over or grab a defensive rebound through these stretches, but rarely if ever to any avail. Perhaps Casey could take a lesson from Spoelstra on imploring his team to action through dramatics. Many of the bad shots that DeRozan ended up taking resulted from possessions that struggled to establish anything against Miami’s set defense when Toronto failed to push the ball. There are holes that are ripe for scoring against though.Goran Dragic was a killer offensively against the Raptors, which made it all the more valuable when the Raptors were able to take Benedict Cumberbatch’s Slovenian younger brother out of the game completely by attacking him on offence. The Raptors need to continue to attack with whomever the Heat are trying to hide Dragic on. Wade, Deng and Johnson are all good defenders, but their days of fighting quickly over or through a pick are behind them. Miami is not a team with great speed or the ability to recover well through rotations. The Raptors found many of their best shots when they used a series of actions that worked the high pick and roll, where Miami’s older wings really struggle to fight over screens and Whiteside has a tendency to hang back to protect the rim. Ross and DeRozan took advantage of this for half a dozen wide open free throw line jumpers and Lowry did it twice in the final minute of the fourth quarter to ensure that the Raps took the game to overtime. The mid range game isn’t the most ideal shot in the world, but open shots are extremely tough to come by in the playoffs, and if that’s something that’s open, the Raptors shooters should continue to exploit it. Getting into those side-to-side high screens sooner in the shot clock gives the Raptors more opportunities to find that daylight, creates a better chance of a missed Miami rotation and tires out the older legs that carry their scoring load.
Another bright spot from last night’s game was DeMarre Carroll’s decision to start attacking. A season ago, Carroll made himself a very rich man in large part of single-handedly bailing out a failing Atlanta Hawks offense in the playoffs. The Hawks system became shut down and stagnant in last year’s playoffs, and Carroll broke away from their system approach and just attacked, helping the Hawks to limp into the conference finals. He had a similar approach in last night’s game, driving through his man or shooting a 3 over him when he saw that it was clear that the Raptor’s possession was not about to develop into a quality shot. Having another option for something who can manufacture their own shot is huge, as it bends the defense away from it’s Lowry-DeRozan focus or, as we saw whenever Carroll drove to the basket last night, leaves a wide open lane because it’s so focused on the threats elsewhere. Carroll isn’t afraid of any shot, opponent or moment, and the Raptors need players who are just willing to take their own shot at times. That Carroll tends to do so either at the rim, or from 3, and without multiple hands in his face is a big help.
Despite his historically baffling shooting numbers, the Raptors still need Lowry to be on the floor to run the offense. The Raptors were -6 when Lowry sat last night, in large part because of the DeRozan and the reserves lineup that got waxed. Even if he isn’t hitting his shot, Lowry still spaces the floor and attacks. Miami is sagging off the 3 point shots of Joseph and DeRozan and Johnson and Luol Deng are both betting that they can cheat off of Patterson a step or two inside and still recover in time to challenge the shot. This is problematically clogging the paint for the once upon a time effective drives to the hoop that DeRozan and Joseph used to live off of. Even if Lowry isn’t hitting his deep shot at all, the Heat are still respecting it and contesting every one. He’s one of the only Raptors wings that brings any gravity to the floor, and the Raptors need that to open space for drives and more Valanciunas post-ups.
Speaking of the former man and now beast that is known as Jonas Valanciunas, the twitterverse has exploded in the last 12 hours with demands for more post-ups for him. Casey was asked directly about this in his post game presser, acknowledging the need to get him the ball but talking about how the Heat guards have been making it difficult to get the ball in there. When Jonas is scoring as often as he is against Whiteside whenever he gets the chance, you simply need to find ways to make that post entry pass. I think that the Raptors will do some more of this, but I wouldn’t expect a steady diet. In part, I think it’s because the Raptors players and coaches have simply shown too consistent of an unwillingness to do so with any kind of regularity. Valanciunas will get more touches, I think, but I’d be surprised if he saw more than 6 or 7 post-ups in game 3, and that’s even if the early ones go well. That would be disappointing, but there is also some good reason for it. Valanciunas has finally developed into a good screen setter, and he has been creating a ton of room for the Raptors ball handlers to operate by spending most of the Raptors offensive possessions playing left offensive tackle, setting pick after pick around the top of the arc. His 15 points and 12 rebounds from game 2 are well lauded, but unseen on the traditional box score was the 12 screen assists that Valanciunas recorded (per nba.com/stats), which is more than the entire Miami Heat team had all game (11). Plunking Valanciunas low into the post and leaving him there requires the Raptors to completely change a lot of what they do early on in the shot clock. That’s worth experimenting with as long as Jonas continues to dominate post-ups, and even just to force the Miami defense to adjust. But the Raptors are also getting some big production from his work far away from the basket, and that isn’t worth abandoning altogether.
The Raptors offense isn’t going to be anything close to what it was in the regular season. Defenses are better, and better prepared. Lowry is genuinely bothered in his shooting by some combination of physical and mental circumstances. DeRozan simply isn’t going to get to the line as much. But there is real room for improvement if the Raptors can focus on some of these things that have been working. They went to these options down the stretch of the 4th quarter and in overtime of game 2. They’re smart guys with very smart coaches, and they know what they need to do. Let’s see how that goes.
