At long last, the NBA is back. Enough of the much-too-long preseason, enough of the training camp storylines, manufactured or otherwise, enough of speaking in hypotheticals. The season is here very shortly, which means all that’s left to check off the preseason To Do List is our annual staff roundtable. Part one went up yesterday, part two is below. Let’s get these 2016-17 buckets.
(Note: Answers were collected before the Jared Sullinger news.)
6. Terrence Ross. Are you in or all the way in?
Blake Murphy: If the preseason isn’t for talking yourself into players you have no business talking yourself into, what is it for? I’m buying in to the point that I think Ross will be able to show that Masai Ujiri was smart to lock him up on what amounts to a below-market deal. Ross was quietly a part of the team’s killer bench lineup last year (as loathe as some are to admit that), and he’s established himself as a top-20 shooter on a large volume of threes, an important consideration for a team without a ton of bombers. If Ross can continue to show improved aggression and decision-making off the bounce, he could really open up that second unit offense. And if he gets to the line more than once a week? Look out. (OK, he probably still isn’t going to push himself to Sixth Man of the Year contention, but there’s room for optimism here. Seriously!)
Michael Holian: No third option? How about this: In or all the way in on a grey area? One that resides between refusing to jump on the yearly T-Ross bandwagon and taking it for a joy ride. Until his annual flashes of consistency aren’t balanced out with extended stretches of disappointing decision-making, that’s where I’ll set up camp. Granted, even though it’s just preseason, seeing the encouraging signs of last year carry over (the ones where he realized he’s capable of being much more than just a spacing-the-floor specialist) has me eagerly awaiting what 90% of this fan base is predicting. Though as much as his all-of-a-sudden supporters don’t want to hear it, a breakout year also makes the notion of him ultimately being shipped out of town stronger at the same time. Don’t. Shoot. The. Messenger.
Cooper Smither: Very in on whatever iteration of Terrence/Terry/T.J./Elijah/James Ross we are currently at. Seeing him contort defenses in the pick and roll, aggressively come off screens and just driving to the hole has got to make you a believer. Or it might not if you’re a Terrence Ross pessimist. They tend to be right more often anyways. But on a semi-serious note, I thought he had a consistent/good enough regular season last year anyways, it’s showing up for one of the three playoff series that left a bad taste in everyone’s mouth that makes this jump seem unreasonable. Personally, comparing last regular season to this preseason, it’s a linear and logical (still important and large) step, but not out of the question.
Tamberlyn Richardson: Last year I think I was the only one still ‘all in’, so obviously I’m ‘all the way in’. I get why fans were frustrated given his natural athleticism and potential. Preseason (prior to injury) Ross confidently showcased a mid-range game, invited contact and dropped some sweet dimes. Speculation on “why now?” has ranged from the end of his relationship with Amber Rose, maturing, becoming a father etc. But, I believe it was just plain old pride – Ross felt the heat from Powell. Ross himself said lack of focus was an issue and something he worked on. His next step should be increased rebounds, assists, and steals and 100% commitment defensively.
Spencer Redmond: This is really a make or break season for Ross. A lot of people see him as a trade piece, but his three point shooting off the bench could continue to be a really valuable asset for the Raptors this season. I’m in! I hope the issues that have held Ross back in his first four seasons finally start to fizzle away and he figures things out.
William Lou: Call it the (Dennis) Schrodinger’s problem: I’m always simultaneously in AND out on Terrence Ross.
Warren Kosoy: I’ve never seen so much talent put to waste. The odd sick dunks, and the odd hot shooting nights are cancelled out by bad rotations, an inability to drive to the basket, and a very one dimensional brand of basketball. Maybe if Ross had the same chance to develop in a primary ball handling role like Derozan, this career path would be much different., but Ross is what he is at this point, and I don’t think that’ll change in Toronto. He has the talent to flourish elsewhere though.
Shyam Baskaran: So instead of destroying T-Ross again, I’ll step back and re-define what “in” and “all the way in” mean to me. “All the way in” 2 and a half years ago after the 51-point game might have been the potential for him to be an all-star, or maybe just a notch below that. I think after 4 years of seeing this guy, we’ve gotten a much better understanding of his ceiling. To me, “all the way in” today means he can potentially be the Jamal Crawford, JR Smith, etc. that we can rely on. We just need him to be a reliable bench scorer that spaces the floor, shoots 45%+ from the field, and is in the 13-15 ppg range consistently. To me, that’s “all the way in”. And currently, while I’m sold on that (or at least the reasonable likelihood of it), I’m not sold on much else.
Barry Taylor: Let’s do it. He’s got too much talent for it to never happen. This is the year. Forget the old Terrence. Forget Amber Rose.This is the season he busts out. I’m going all in. Long Live Trey Rozay!
Cameron Dorrett: I have no idea what this is – but it sums up exactly what I feel Terry is capable of. All.The.Way.
Tim Chisholm: Sorry, not quite ready to forget the last four years, yet.
Anthony Doyle: I’m all the way in. I’ve always believed in Ross’ talent, the questions have been with his maturity and confidence. And while preseason basketball isn’t the most predictive in terms of regular season performance, there is definitely something different about his approach to the game from what we’ve seen. He’s hesitating less, talking more on the defensive end, and he’s aggressive and confident on the offensive end. I’ve been burned before by believing in Ross, and wouldn’t be surprised if it happens again, but I’m buying that this is the player we’ve known he can be for years.
Alex Gres: In, reluctantly. Like him or hate him, Ross is an excellent three point shooter, something the Raptors simply don’t have much of. He showed a willingness to be more decisive as the ball handler last season, and ideally the Raptors would want him to morph into a defensively capable Jamal Crawford type. At this point, most of us understand that probably won’t happen, and so it would be silly to continue being disappointed by his performances. Luckily, we have Norman Powell salivating the prospect of more minutes.
7. Jonas Valanciunas is also entering his fifth season. His role has stagnated the last few seasons despite evidence he could handle a larger offseason workload. What are you expectations for Valanciunas this year?
William Lou: Honestly, I don’t see Valanciunas making the jump this year simply because the dynamic of the team is exactly the same, and that the current scheme has already proven to be a winning formula. Valanciunas will put up 12 points and 8 rebounds with a block in 28 minutes per game.
Anthony Doyle: Valanciunas has consistently shown that he’s ready to be an impact player for the team on the offensive end, scoring with ease inside, or with his effective midrange jumper, even against some of the best defensive centers in the league. He was dominating the matchup against Hassan Whiteside in the playoffs prior to his injury, and I’d love to see that guy come out for a full season. However, I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t a little disappointed with his effort in the Olympics and preseason. Although the numbers are fine, his approach seems hesitant and he’s not showing the aggressiveness he needs so far.
Cameron Dorrett: I get that people don’t want to hear this, honestly, I do – but I think we’ve seen JV’s ceiling. Is it the Sistine Chapel we hoped for? No, but it opens the room up nicely and isn’t going to crumble around you anytime soon.
Shyam Baskaran: We need JV to be a force – the force that he proved himself to be in the Pacers playoff series and in the first 3 games against Miami. JV needs to elevate himself to be an elite big-man, and I think this is the make-or-break season for him. In other words, if not now, then I think this is just who he is going forward. Having said that, he’s always been better in the post-season because of how the game slows down. My overall expectation is that he averages about a double-double per game, with a bit more offensive punch than last year (15 ppg or so). Part of that will hinge on our play-calling, which I expect Coach Casey to skew toward JV more this year.
Michael Holian: It’s somewhat by default, considering the lack of experience behind him, but we’re likely going to see what JV is truly made of. Can we officially expect his minutes to surpass the 30-minute mark? Well, even with the probability of Casey going small with much more regularity, JV should not only be extended the opportunity of furthering the progression he made on defense in the playoffs, but also given the chance to be incorporated into offensive sets that he would’ve normally been observing from the bench. He disappointed at the Olympics, and has left us uninspired during the preseason, but the expectation for a career year (including a capable 15-footer, and improved footwork around the basket) remains.
Blake Murphy: I’m foolishly expecting him to be a bigger part of the team’s offense. They’ve already shown a few new wrinkles in the preseason, and it seems as if head coach Dwane Casey is at least considering giving Valanciunas minutes against opposing bench units, helping out Cory Joseph and feasting on weaker bigs in the process. If they can expand his role without syphoning from Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, a very good offensive team can become even better. Which is important, because unless Valanciunas takes strides at the other end (fingers somewhat skeptically crossed), they’re going to be worse on defense and trying to out-shoot teams to make up for it.
Warren Kosoy: With Biyombo gone, I expect Valanciunas to see an uptick that we have all been waiting for. He was saying minutes in the high 30s against the Heat before getting hurt. I think he will just be easier to trust than any other centers. I expect Val to see 32 minutes a night, while Patterson and Sullinger, along with periodic Poeltl minutes filling out the rest. I wish Val could pass a little better, but he is capable of taking any big one on one inside. I see a slight improvement, but no breakout.
Tamberlyn Richardson: Honestly, JV baffles me. He was dominant in the playoffs. Part of that was due to the game slowing to the half court, but that’s not the reason his passing improved exponentially. Notably, whenever Jack Sikma’s around JV plays with more confidence and offensively is less hesitant. (Note to management: hire Sikma full time.) Again, I’m confused by JV. He seemed fine with the Biyombo platoon, so I don’t imagine he would fight harder should one of Nogueira or Poeltl push him like Powell has Ross. Okay, I’m avoiding…. I expect less pump fakes, playoff type passing, 17 points, 10 rebounds, 1.9 blocks (for the record that’s also what I said last year).
Tim Chisholm: They were pretty high until this preseason, where he’s looked totally out of rhythm for long stretches. Valanciuans is a very skilled player, but I’m worried about the fit going into his fifth year. It just feels like he doesn’t mesh with what the team needs from a centre on a team with Lowry and DeRozan. That could also easily be a recency bias, because when you have a player that good you really ought to find a way to maximize him.
Cooper Smither: Expectations and hopes are tricky here. I hope he plays 30 minutes a night, but the Raptors have seemed pretty content playing him a tick above 25 minutes a game for his career. Increase in minutes would (hopefully) give him more time with the bench to boost them up, increase the usage percentage and the raw stats. We’d all love for him to get to 15 & 10, but getting there is tricky without reconfiguring where his minutes come from. He made an incredibly important step from a passing perspective last year – it’s my expectation and hope that his facilitation from the post or the elbow continues to grow after years of being a black hole.
Alex Gres: The evidence that Valanciunas is capable of being a first or second option at the NBA level is slim at best. He has shown an ability to excel in the playoffs, but he was doing so while the defense focused on Lowry and DeRozan. The big Lithuanian failed to impress as his national team’ headliner in the Olympics, sowing doubts among those who would see him promoted within the Raptors hierarchy. His real opportunity to impress may come if he features as the main option alongside the bench unit, running the pick and roll with Cory Joseph.
Barry Taylor: Based on his playoff performance last year, Casey has no choice but to feature more JV in the offence this year. With more touches Valanciunas can become an All Star. Believe that!
Spencer Redmond: My expectations are infinite, all depending on how many touches he gets. Hope the Raptors give him more opportunities, at the same time I think Valanciunas needs to keep doing all the little things to ensure he gets the ball in the best position to score. He has shown flashes (like last postseason) of really being engaged on offense and being able to score on some of the best rim protectors in the league. Other times, he looks unengaged.
Kiyan Sobhani: Given his dominant performances in the post-season, I’d expect a leap. 15 and 10 – that’s a reasonable expectation, and that’s on the low-end.
8. Are you ready for the Pascal Siakam Experience?
Shyam Baskaran: 100% ready. While Siakam doesn’t really have a ton of basketball experience, in my mind, he’s already a more NBA-ready version of Bruno. Save for maybe the offensive skillset, he’s faster, is a better defender and is great around the basket. My only concerns for him are playing time (Coach Casey is famous for not playing rooks), and discipline when on the court. He could find himself glued to the bench on missed defensive assignments, bad shots, etc. But that’s why we’ve got the 905, and I’m sure Siakam will get some run there if the NBA is too much too early.
Spencer Redmond: Pascal has blown away my expectations in preseason. I hope he plays the backup five, his energy and defensive smarts make him an excellent candidate to replace Biyombo in the rotation. He has the defensive skills to be a great rim protector, and has shown he has pretty polished offensive game, better than a lot of draft experts expected. I see a lot of Jerome Williams in Siakam.
Tim Chisholm: Even if I weren’t, it sure seems like Dwane Casey is. As Norman proved a year ago, energy and defence will get you minutes on a Casey team, and with Biyombo sunning himself in Florida, there is room for a ‘get after it’ frontcourt guy. So, in short: yes, I’m ready. But man, he’s going to foul a lot.
Barry Taylor: Sounds like fun. I’m always up for trying pretty much everything once. When we spoke with Jeff Landicho from Open Gym – watch your step, just dropped a name – he mentioned Siakam really stuck out to him during pre-season as a player that has potential for great things. I’m on board.
Cooper Smither: I’m pretty damn ready. Not-so-much for the possibility of him as a 3, I still think he could pivot to the 5 against certain bench units at some point in his career, but he’s looking damn-solid at the 4 regardless. I really hope he doesn’t get labeled as an energy guy, because his defensive positioning and technique are quite good and the “energy” label might be selling him short. He’s got some ball-skills on the other end which are intriguing, but it’s also easy to see the jumper is quite a ways away. Overall, pretty excited for the funky lineups he potentially unlocks.
Warren Kosoy: Definitely. He looks like a fun player. It’s hard to judge a guy from half of a summer league and a 5th option role in preseason, but I can tell that Siakam will be a guy that people like to watch. He is good at getting open on the fastbreak, and has some upside on defense. I’m tempering expectations, but a new fun player is always something I look forward to.
Alex Gres: Expectations should be tempered for the athletic rookie, though there’s little doubt he will become a crowd favorite if he gets minutes. Ujiri likes to make bets on long, raw athletic players, believing in the staff he put together to make quality basketball players out of them. Siakam is the newest experiment in the line, and may have an exciting future ahead of him if he puts in the work.
Anthony Doyle: Siakam is so much fun. He’s aggressive, confident and hard-working on both ends of the floor, and just a pleasure to watch. His game is still raw, and at times his inexperience shows, but he just never stops working. This is Norman Powell, the big man version, and I’m completely ready and bought-in on him as part of the rotation as the season goes on.
Michael Holian: You mean the rookie who’s energy level and willingness to assert himself on defense already rivals any player on the roster? The one that’s seemingly capable of contributing across the board at either the three, four or five? The same player I just stashed in both my dynasty leagues? Ok, deep breath … Siakam is raw, will have to wait his turn to prove that I’m not jumping the gun, and scattered stints in the D-League are likely in his future. Still, with the thought of having a potential frontcourt fixture already in the pipeline instead of the club continuously having to dip into Free Agency, it’s safe to say I’m not the only one who’s ready.
William Lou: I’m so ready. Just remember: He’s not the second Bismack Biyombo, he’s the first Pascal Siakam (although there will be just as many shanked layups, so RR might need to update that wildly unpopular “Bismack Biyombo Blown Bunny Counter.”)
Cameron Dorrett: Pascal Siakam said this, and it’s all you need to know: “No offense to Bismack Biyombo, I’d rather be the first Pascal Siakam”. I’m ready.
9. What is your biggest concern about the Raptors as currently constructed?
William Lou: That the team is too reliant on DeRozan and Lowry. Dwane Casey already came out and said, in so many words, that he’ll ride Lowry and DeRozan for heavy minutes like he always does. We need these guys healthy for the playoffs but Casey treats the NBA like the EPL as he tries his best to win the table (that Zarar’s Arsenal side can never achieve.)
Cooper Smither: They tie together somewhat, but health and lack of security from the depth of the bigs. For a while, Valanciunas seemed like an iron man of sorts, but if he goes down again, the domino effects could be pretty drastic. Either removing Patterson from the bench and going small(ish) with Sullinger at the 5, or starting one of the unproven big man prospects. Other than that, just keeping everyone healthy come playoff time.
Cameron Dorrett: Cleveland.
Anthony Doyle: Last year’s concern is the same as this year’s for me: the Raptors are a good team that’s not quite great, and they don’t have a clear path to getting there. Doubling down on the team’s core, with DeRozan’s big extension and re-signing Casey, means that we’ll continue to be good. But it also might mean we can’t make the next step, as it makes it harder to bring in new players that change the trajectory of the team. Maybe that’s enough for some, but I’d like to win titles.
Blake Murphy: Oddly, it’s the same as a season ago: Depth in the frontcourt. It’s not so much that the Raptors didn’t address it – remember that it didn’t “seem” as if they had addressed it enough at this time last year, when Bismack Biyombo was still a relatively unknown commodity – but that they’re already in triage mode across the forward and center spots. I think it’ll be fine, as I’m optimistic that the team’s smaller wings can play some three (give me all the fun, small, annoying lineups), but the Raptors are one Jonas Valanciunas, Patrick Patterson, or DeMarre Carroll injury from being the league’s youngest – or smallest – team. That’s tough over 82 games, so as long as everyone’s healthy in April, maybe it’s OK.
Barry Taylor: They don’t have Lebron James.
Tim Chisholm: A prolonged injury to DeRozan or Lowry could be devastating, and, like I said, I’m worried that this team still doesn’t know what to do with Valanciunas, but on the whole there isn’t a lot to be worried by. They’re well constructed, they play hard, and they’re fun to watch. Maybe my biggest concern is that they go out in a competitive second round series and people decide that the season was somehow a “step back”, because they don’t understand how success is measured for good teams.
Tamberlyn Richardson: Front court depth could be an issue. But even if Toronto take a step back awaiting the development of their youngsters I’m okay with that. Plus I can offer facts to back up my optimism. Only 4 teams have no out-going draft picks for the foreseeable future (Raptors, Magic, Suns and Jazz). Five teams have an average roster age of 25.2 or younger. The Raptors fall into both columns (as do the Suns).
Average Age:
- Sixers – 24.8
- Celtics – 24.9
- Suns – 25.0
- Raptors, Blazers: 25.2
Hey, I’m an optimist; I’ll refer you to question 1 and ask you not to rain on my parade.
Alex Gres: The lack of consistent three point shooting. There’s no way to escape the fact that top tier NBA teams in the last decade boast top tier three point shooters. The Raptors are banking on Joseph and Powell to improve their consistency to the high thirties (Powell’s was above that, but in a small sample size). They have the tools to play small and outrebound their opponents, as well as quality man defenders that can slow down opposing stars. The last piece of the puzzle is maintaining high shooting percentages while increasing triple attempts.
Spencer Redmond: Overall I think the lack of three point shooting is a problem. Both starters and bench units have some three point shooting, and to counter that they have a lot of ball handlers who won’t shoot threes at all. Spacing could be an issue if some of the shooters hits a cold spell.
Warren Kosoy: I think the Raptors lost some significant depth this year. Losing Biyombo is going to really hurt, and I worry about the depth at small forward. Carroll is injury prone, and the people saying that “He’s good when he’s healthy” are correct. However, we have barely seen any healthy Carroll. I worry if he gets hurt that the SF position will be a problem. I also think they were a good team last year, but I think that might have been their peak.
Shyam Baskaran: 100% ready. While Siakam doesn’t really have a ton of basketball experience, in my mind, he’s already a more NBA-ready version of Bruno. Save for maybe the offensive skillset, he’s faster, is a better defender and is great around the basket. My only concerns for him are playing time (Coach Casey is famous for not playing rooks), and discipline when on the court. He could find himself glued to the bench on missed defensive assignments, bad shots, etc. But that’s why we’ve got the 905, and I’m sure Siakam will get some run there if the NBA is too much too early.
Michael Holian: I’m confident that the Raps’ new-look frontcourt and returning supporting cast can hold up their end of the bargain. But the thought of both underperforming should make us all fearful of what it could lead to, as it opens up the potential for things to go haywire from multiple angles: A) Lowry and DeRozan continuously overcompensate, which means overextending themselves in the regular season when the mission should be the opposite. B) Norman Powell’s minutes fluctuate, which means his growth as a two-way player gets stunted. And most of all: C) Rebounding and interior defense (or lack thereof) become major factors, which means the concerns over the loss of Biyombo become all too real.
10. How many wins will the Raptors finish with? More importantly, will they make it back to the Eastern Conference Finals?
Tamberlyn Richardson: First the team must apply lessons learned: it’s more valuable to be rested and healthy in April. Dwane Casey needs to play the youngsters more, even at the risk of forfeiting some wins. That will help accomplish the primary goal while also providing valuable in game experience to the youngsters. For that reason I’m saying the Raptors win between 48 and 52 games. The East has improved and many pundits are picking everyone but the Raptors as top seeds (see NBA TV Open Court). That also doesn’t bother me because the Raptors play better when they are underestimated. Bring on the shade, disrespect and give us a playoff seed that doesn’t involve the Cavaliers until the ECF.
Alex Gres: Their win total is not how the Raptors will be measured – and rightfully so, as Lowry, DeRozan and Carroll’s minutes will be carefully managed with an eye towards the real goal – making it back to the Conference Finals. A number of Eastern opponents got better (Indiana, Boston) while others got worse (Heat, Hawks), but We The North’s road to the final four will remain roughly similar in difficulty to last season. The problem is that Toronto needed two game 7s on their home court to get there. Their newfound experience will help, but the reduced emphasis placed on the regular season may cost them home court advantage in the second round and spell an earlier exit in a toss-up series against the Celtics or the revenge-hungry Pacers.
Cameron Dorrett: 53 wins. The second seed. The Eastern Conference Finals.
Michael Holian: There’s too many questions that have to seamlessly fall in place at the same time for the Raps to surpass last season’s record-breaking win total. But because they’re still in the driver’s seat to claim the 2-seed (the skeptics don’t have a leg to stand on), I have them ending up at 50-32. As for the more important question, the only things standing in the way of a repeat appearance in the Eastern Conference Finals are injuries, failure to embrace a tweak in identity, and if they don’t up the ante during postseason road games. Bottom line: When I hit up Vegas a weeks back, I already put my money on Round 3 of Toronto-Cleveland taking place.
Warren Kosoy: 50 wins and I’ll vote no on the ECF. They barely got through a mediocre Indiana team, and the Whiteside injury completely skewed the Miami series. Valanciunas got hurt too, but Miami had literally no one near Biyombo to start off the bench. This gave the Raptors a huge rebounding advantage. They barely got through Miami. I hope I’m wrong and this team proves me wrong, but I think the East got a lot stronger this year, and the Raptors got weaker to me.
William Lou: 53 wins for the Raptors. They make it back to the ECF (before getting swept by Cleveland) after beating Boston in a seven-game series in the second round.
Kiyan Sobhani: 53-29. ECF.
Barry Taylor: They’ll finish with 48 wins and take Boston in the semi-finals to make the Eastern Conference Finals but lose to…. the Pacers.
Cooper Smither: Give me 52 wins but being an equally as good squad (or marginally different) as last year. As for the ECF, i’ll tentatively say yes.
Shyam Baskaran: I’ll say 50 wins. 56 wins last year was probably as high as we’ll see with this team as currently constructed (save for a blockbuster trade, I just can’t see them winning 57 or more). That’ll probably mean seeding between 2-4 in the East, depending on how Boston, Indiana, Atlanta, or even improving teams like Detroit, Washington, Charlotte, etc. do. Can we make it back to the eastern conference finals? Absolutely. If we remain healthy and win our division (meaning we do better than do Boston), I don’t see why it’s not a possibility.
Anthony Doyle: I think you’ll see a similar year to last year, finishing around 50 to 55 wins, and with a strong playoff run. I’ll say yes on the Eastern Conference Finals, but it’ll be a tough playoff road again, and I expect the Raptors will win their division and finish with a top two seed in the Eastern Conference.
Spencer Redmond: 51 wins. They are still the second best team in the East in my mind, slightly less wins because the East got deeper overall. Eastern Conference Finals is definitely a possibility, I see them making it back.
