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Raptors Mailbag: Valanciunas concerns, trade questions heat up, and a lot more

Should Jonas Valanciunas be looking over his shoulder? Good ground and pound, though.

Last season, whenever the Toronto Raptors had back-to-back days off, I’d drop an #RRMailbag. They take a lot of time to put together, so I need the extra day turnaround time. Or something. You can find all of the previous editions here, though I don’t know why you’d bother. In any case, the regular feature is back this year, at least when dual days off don’t fall on a weekend.

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Alright, let’s get this money.

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Concerns about Valanciunas

Note: In an attempt to get ahead of some of the Jonas Valanciunas chatter of late, Eric Koreen and I gave JV the Reasonablists treatment over at The Athletic.

Well, part of that depends on what you initially expected him to be. It’s RUDE to go back and look at NBADraft.net’s player comparisons, but as an example, they had Jonas Valanciunas’ NBA comparisons as Spencer Hawes and Primoz Brezec. If those were your expectations, well, he’s gotten there and exceeded them. If your expectations were closer to those of the Raptors, Spurs, and Warriors (the latter two of whom tried to move up to No. 5 to get him, only to be rebuffed by the former), then he’s not there yet, sure. I’d hazard against calling a 24-year-old big man who’s a quality scorer in a handful of ways and an elite rebounder a bust (not your words, but I’ve seen it thrown around), but I understand that he’s not the two-way building block that some wanted him to be by this point.

As for whether he gets there, well, probably not if your expectations included high-end rim protection and an above-average defender overall. Were Valanciunas in another environment, I have little question that his offense could produce at a higher volume more in line with the expectations for a No. 5 pick. He’s very good on that end, his passing has improved a little bit (at least when stationary – he still struggles to stop in the middle of a mechanical move to change his mind about what he’s going to do), and he’s still just 24, two or three years before bigs typically hit the peak of their development curve. But he’s not going to get there defensively. For the fifth season in a row, the Raptors are better with Valanciunas off the floor than on it due to a combination of him being a negative on defense and his role not allowing his offense to make up for it.

Having said all of that, he’s still a useful piece, is a part of some quality Raptors lineups, and the sudden frontcourt depth the Raptors have is a positive, not a reason to run Valanciunas out of town.


I think there are a few shades of grey between those options. If I’m the Raptors (to be clear, I am not), Valanciunas is definitely on the table in any trade discussions, particularly if those negotiations might bring back a big. He’s not untouchable, because while he’s mostly a good player and his deal is more than reasonable, he’s also the team’s best trade chip, blending substantial outgoing salary on a fair deal, immediate production, and some additional perceived upside.

But the market for lumbering centers who suddenly can’t find the floor late in games for a title hopeful probably isn’t that robust. What I always come back to when I’m asked about trades is that if you’re really down on a guy at the moment, is selling at the nadir of his value really the best approach? Or looked at differently, if the fanbase is eager to get rid of a piece, why does said fanbase think there would be strong trade value? (Again, you didn’t say these things, Mark, but it’s a general theme I’ve noticed.) If Valanciunas is so bad, suggesting a swap of Valanciunas for Cousins makes little sense.

So, yeah, Valanciunas is absolutely available in the right deal, but I’m not shopping him just to get rid of him or because he might not reach his ceiling here. He’s still a useful player, and in year five, the Raptors have the option to accept him for what he is and try to maximize that rather than worrying that he has to be on the court late or they have to tweak their defense around him.

https://twitter.com/MrDGWells/status/806243361116065792

I’m not sure that’s going to be enough. Unfortunately, even with a really great draft class in 2017, the value of the Raptors’ draft assets are pretty low – a pair of picks in the 25-30 range, a second-rounder likely to come right at the end of the draft, and a bevy of future firsts and seconds a team can’t be sure won’t be late in the draft, too. Those picks still have value, but they’re closer to a sweetener than a major trade chip. (Uncertainty about how the new CBA may pay late first-round picks or treat rookie-scale extensions adds to this ever so slightly.) And then there’s the matter of Valanciunas’ salary alone only allowing you to take back about $19.4M, so if you’re bringing in a quality piece there’s not much room to take on dead money, too.

In all likelihood, any deal for a difference-maker that is built around Valanciunas and picks will also include a prospect or, if you’re talking someone in the DeMarcus Cousins class, multiple players/prospects. It’s always possible another team really likes Valanciunas, though.

The usual trade talk

Can’t I be in both camps? Not to be wishy-washy, but I think both of those things are pretty true. It is a nice spot to be second in the East, especially given the history of this franchise and how long the fanbase has waited to even just be consistently competitive. We’re living in the best era in Raptors history, coming off the best regular season in three consecutive years, the deepest playoff run ever a year ago, and this year’s team might ultimately have an even higher upside than the groups before them. It’s a good time to be a Raptors fan.

The Raptors do need to make a move to beat Cleveland, though. I guess I’m in the former camp because I don’t think they need to make a move in the bigger picture. Their intention is to get past Cleveland, to be clear, but I don’t think they would be willing to sacrifice being very good for a long time for a slightly better chance at passing the Cavs (especially since there’s no deal out there that would make them a title favorite). They’re not going to take a wild swing unless it improves their odds significantly. I’m a fan of the Five Percent Rule, where if you think you have a five-percent chance at winning the title, you’re justified at going all in. With Cleveland and Golden State existing as they do, that’s a tough bar to clear.

So to give an actual answer, I think it is more important to make sure that the team can be very good over a longer stretch of time than to be over-aggressive maximizing a one-year window. I understand that Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan aren’t getting younger, but there’s a reason Masai Ujiri has built this team to win now while also staying competitive into the future (they’re among the youngest teams in the league) – flexibility, stability, continuity, and the chance to pitch free agents (and fans) on a reliable, high-quality organization are all important, and the Raptors will only risk those crucial long-term franchise-building elements for the right fit.

(I’m also just skeptical that any team a) puts a big name on the market, and b) likes the Raptors’ package best. It takes two, and it’s hard to find logical partners that couldn’t get more from someone else.)

https://twitter.com/ATNiagaraFalls/status/806241197912104962

If one presents itself, sure, but the safe bet in these cases is always on inertia, given the number of things that need to line up for a big trade to happen. As explained more above, there is just too much value in what they have to make a poorly calculated gamble, and I think the Raptors will err on the side of caution. That doesn’t mean they won’t be active – they were in the discussion on Serge Ibaka, called about Paul Millsap, and would probably inquire if DeMarcus Cousins, LaMarcus Aldridge, or another clear upgrade in the frontcourt materialized – but so many things need to break right that I’d guess no. I think they’re OK being *just* very good and trusting their development, given the dearth of trade targets.

https://twitter.com/rapsfan1237/status/806246667351625730
Absolutely not. Unless it’s a move that significantly lowers the gap between Toronto and Cleveland, the Raptors aren’t going to tinker with a very strong chemistry and task-cohesive locker room just to feel like they made a splash. That’s not Ujiri’s style, and it’s not the way you jump from one level to the next. Short of adding a star or borderline star, or maybe a really small depth piece at the forward spots, I can’t see the Raptors tinkering just to tinker. Internal development and continuity are a large part of what’s got them this far.

https://twitter.com/Swarlayzers/status/806239249465020417
You can only hope, right? Ryan Kelly is even playing some center! What’s the solution to Channing Frye? Getting Boy Band Channing Frye, obviously.


It’s probably a little early for this question (not to ask it, but to answer it accurately). So many teams still don’t have clarity on whether they’re contenders or not. Brooklyn, Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Dallas are probably self-aware enough to write themselves off and become sellers (without great pieces to dangle, although the idea of reinvigorating Tyson Chandler might be intriguing to some). Miami, Sacramento, and Minnesota may get there eventually, though the Wolves wouldn’t be aggressive sellers. Washington should fold the franchise, but what do they have to offer? Everyone else can still talk themselves into making a playoff push, if that’s their goal.

Here are the names I think Raptors fans can look at as potential best hopes: Danilo Gallinari (pending free agent, hurts the defense a little bit but really opens up some fun stuff at the forward spots), Serge Ibaka (been down this road but the Magic are bad and might want to recoup some assets before he potentially walks), DeMarcus Cousins (duh, but you better pray Vlade Divac loves him some Valanciunas), and the long-shot, Paul Millsap (the Hawks historically don’t like to be sellers, even if they think a guy might leave). You can dream on these names as upgrades at the four or five, but each seems quite unlikely.

Any names below that tier that might hit the market run the risk of not being worth losing depth and disrupting chemistry.


Ibaka or Gallinari if they became available. I’m not sure any other difference makers hit the market.

My favorite name as a lower-end addition, if the Raptors get itchy and want to add some depth, would be Jared Dudley. I think his mix of defense, shooting, and personality would make him a great fit in Toronto, and he’d add some depth to the three-four spot with two completely reasonable years on his deal past this one. Sadly, he is probably not going anywhere and would likely be superfluous, anyway, and the outgoing salary required makes a deal tough.

And if you ever wondered if I even shoot down my own trade ideas, the answer is apparently yes.

Raptors miscellaneous

For full disclosure, I’m not entirely sure what this question is asking. If it’s about the defense as a whole, I think “getting schooled” is a bit too far – the Raptors rank 16th in defensive efficiency, completely average (it drops to 17th when controlling for schedule, a negligible difference). That’s not great, but it’s not terrible, and I never thought this Raptors team was likely to be a top-10 defensive outfit. They just don’t have the rim protection, their transition coverage of the 3-point line remains a multi-year work in progress, and there is enough youth in the frontcourt that mistakes are to be expected.

There is one big issue with the defense that I see fixing itself over time (other than the young players developing) – the defensive rebounding has been atrocious. Always a strong team on their own glass thanks in large part to the dominance of Valanciunas, the Raptors have somehow fallen to 26th in defensive rebounding rate. They’ve gotten by in the past by forcing a lot of turnovers and cleaning up their own glass. Essentially, the Raptors haven’t stopped teams from scoring all that well on their possessions, but they’ve done a great job limiting the number of shooting possessions. They’re still forcing a lot of turnovers and Valanciunas remains terrific in that area, but the rest of the team has done a worse job in support. Lucas Nogueira is a below-average rebounder, Patrick Patterson probably grades out the same (the last few games aside), and the guards and wings aren’t doing quite as good a job cracking back as they have in the past. That’s something that should sort itself out as the season wears on, and it will help lift the defense a little further.

As for not matching up with top teams, well, top teams are good. The Raptors are in the NBA’s second tier. It’s a lovely place to be, there are just a small handful of teams that are clearly better.

https://twitter.com/ian_reynolds/status/806287680493522944
I don’t see why not. He’s yet again taken strides and improved his game, getting even better at getting his shot off, improving his footwork in the post, getting stronger, and getting to the line even more than in the past. Perhaps most encouraging, he’s really embraced the role of facilitator as defenses have geared up to stop him more and more, averaging a career-high 4.3 assists and dishing four or more in 13 consecutive games. It’s that improved passing, recognition, and decision-making – not just his scoring – that’s helped take the Raptors’ offense to an even higher level. The more varied the offense and the more threats on the floor, the harder it is to stop a team, and DeRozan getting better and better at shifting between roles should make him a little more matchup proof so long as he takes the same approach in the postseason (and rest assured, opponents will still be selling out to stop Lowry and DeRozan in a seven-game series).

Plus, if you don’t let yourself believe that, it’s going to be a long couple of months. Open up your heart to the ceiling.

https://twitter.com/Swarlayzers/status/806238877149265920

It’s so funny how I think back on those teams. They are clearly so bad, but because you have no choice but to sell yourself on the potential and the hope at that time, some of them wind up holding a place in your heart for way longer than they have any right to. But I don’t think there’s any going back to those halcyon days unless thing go awry – an important byproduct of sustaining a certain level of success over a long period time is that it builds organizational equity, which can, in turn, make it easier to perpetuate that level of success. The Raptors aren’t there just yet, but they’re on their way, which is why I find so much value in even repeating last year’s success this time around.

It’s definitely something that gets discussed – Casey even joked early in the year that he texted DeRozan after the Olympics asking why he can’t defend like that for the Raptors. (Side note: I have no idea what Olympics the coach was watching.)

I think DeRozan being what he is defensively is allowed to happen for a number of reasons. The primary one is just that DeRozan’s offensive load is so heavy and takes such a toll physically that you almost don’t want him expending too much energy on that end, at least not until it matters. He was among the top 12 in minutes played, free-throw attempts, and miles run last year. His offensive minutes are hard, and there are only a handful of players in the league with this kind of offensive workload and elite defense. He’s also just not a particularly adept defender, so wringing your hands to him would amount to trying to bleed a stone. (Ok, it’s not that extreme, but DeRozan probably tops out as an average defender even when dialed in.) The Raptors understand his limitations, and it’s why every other guard/wing in the rotation is a decent-to-strong defender.

I don’t think it’s the end of the world he’s not great defensively in most lineup iterations. Usually opponents have one place he can hide, and when he’s fully engaged (in a playoff series, say), he’s capable of handling some player types fine enough. It is what it is.

This is a really hard question that should probably just be it’s own article at some point next offseason. Basically, I’m of the mind that the best approach is for the Raptors to continue to exist in this second tier, because it allows you to either strike when a player becomes available (a trade is always going to be more realistic for a team at this level, which is why the Raptors have been smart to draft and develop youth where they can) or take advantage when the league hits a weird lull year (think of the Mavericks’ title run). There’s not a path to landing a top-five player from where Toronto is, and tearing it down to build from scratch is not a reasonable approach, so you kind of just keep your chips at the ready and continue to build up the organization so people want to play here.

That’s not a real answer to the question, I guess, but it is the approach I would take – keep your powder dry for a shift in the league’s landscape, because things will inevitably change, and being in a position to capitalize is the best I’ve got without a mega-star.

I’ve always been really high on Nogueira’s potential to emerge as a useful rotation big, because the raw size, passing acumen, and basketball IQ are a hard blend to find. He thinks the offensive side of the ball at a very high level and uses his length really well around the rim at both ends. He needs to improve as a rebounder and get the quick fouls under control, and his defense outside of blocking shots is up and down, but otherwise, I think the experiment is coming along quite nicely. In terms of upside, I’m not sure he’s ever an average starter, but if he keeps going along this path and improving his body, I think he could have a solid career as a high-end backup. That’s not to say he couldn’t ever be a starter – you did ask “ceiling” – but he’ll need to improve defensively and add some strength to his lower half without losing quickness to get there.

And I could definitely see certain matchups where he’d be a preferable option for closing out games, for sure. Generally, I’d prefer closing games smaller if Valanciunas isn’t going to be playable, because the Raptors are sacrificing the glass when Valanciunas sits, anyway, and the smaller groups allow for more switching and a better transition game and improved spacing. Playing without a rim-protector and screen-setter isn’t always doable, though, and I could see Casey playing the matchups at the five. They’ll go with who they think gives them the best chance to win, and they’ve shown that.

Having said all of that, it’s early. I really like Nogueira as a player, but it’s been a month, and consistency has always been a bit of an issue with him. Even someone optimistic about him, like me, should need to see it over a longer stretch of time before getting too excited.

I would think he’d finally have to go to Patterson in this event. There are no other power forwards on the roster other than Bruno Caboclo (look at his on-off stats, he’s amazing!), and I’d be shocked if the team was OK starting DeMarre Carroll at the four. I like those lineups as much as anyone, but starting out that way puts a heavy toll on Carroll and would magnify their current rebounding struggles, plus leave them susceptible to some of the bigger opponents out there. I think they’d play with him at the four a lot, I just think they’d pick their spots carefully, which is easier to do starting Patterson and staggering rotations than by starting small.

https://twitter.com/Bueno_No_Bueno/status/806298360009412608

Maybe not in terms of actually stopping teams from scoring (he’s better than Luis Scola was defending at power forward but worse than Patterson or probably Siakam), but Sullinger is an elite defensive rebounder, and he and Valanciunas would be among the best rebounding tandems in the league when playing together. Corralling misses is an important part of defense, and he’d help in that regard. His impact would definitely be larger on the offensive side of the ball, though, and in the flexibility to go small-but-not-too-small he would provide. Luckily, points are points, and extra depth never hurt anyone.

I hope never, because my eye’s been twitching for like four days (again) and I’m convincing myself these kind of things are just fine. Plus, if it bursts, he’s going to have to start wearing his hat like a normal person, and nobody wants that.

Axel Toupane’s definitely at the top of the list for me. There’s a reason the Nuggets scooped him up last year and that he nearly cracked their roster this year even though he’s still not a finished product. Few players have the size, length, quickness, and strength to present problems as a defender across multiple positions like Toupane can (he guards one through three regularly and occasionally the four). He’s also taken such great strides as a secondary playmaker capable of tearing opponents to shreds in the semi-transition game that he’s a really nice second-unit prospect. And he’s still just 24, with an improving stroke from the corners. There’s a lot to like.

Projecting who might get a call is sometimes an inexact science, as teams will look for more than just raw production or fit or ultimate upside. Ronald Roberts, for example, was among the best players in the league last year before getting hurt but couldn’t buy a call-up because nobody with a roster spot needed help at the four. There was some concern Sim Bhullar would get a call even though he wasn’t ready, just because of his size and the fact that a few teams didn’t have anything to play for at the end of the year, anyway, so why not try it out? So it’s a little hard to project what needs and incentives teams may have come January, when 10-day contracts become legal, and with more and more teams having their own affiliates, the likelihood of across-team call-ups becomes at least a little less likely.

If I had to guess, I’d suggest your list of three is pretty close, though I personally think Tavares would benefit from a longer stint down there. Leslie has been incredible so far, and Brady Heslip’s shooting always keeps him on the radar, even with his limitations. Things change incredibly quickly, though, and while the 905 are among the best teams in the D-League, who gets the call ultimately comes down to more than just who’s playing the best or who might seem like the obvious call-up.

NBA miscellaneous


This is what my long-term fantasy football keeper league does for the draft order, so I cringe at the thought of an NBA commissioner enacting a policy I, myself, enacted. I don’t really think there’s much wrong with the current format, to be honest. Yes, the whole Sam Hinkie experiment happened, but look at what it produced – a few misses at the No. 1 pick and a longer timeline to productive assets than maybe anticipated. That’s in line with Hinkie’s vision and it’s fine, but I’d guess most franchises don’t have the stomach for that long a building plan. And I think it’s important to give the lesser teams a means of acquiring high-end talent, and the amount of tanking that takes place is, I think, a bit overstated outside of Philly.

https://twitter.com/rapsfan1237/status/806246236877651968

I’m sure they do. Most of the instances in which I see players missing a box out assignment are on rotations where it’s more a mental thing than a physical one (for example, if Nogueira helps at the rim on a drive and nobody picks up his man). The actual technique, I mean, most guys at this stage know how to do it and it becomes a battle of strength and variance, but I’d guess that blown box-outs are far more mental than technical.

Non-basketball miscellaneous

The Tilted Kilt exists in such a weird bubble. I thought only people from out of town who were parking too far East of the ACC/SkyDome went there, because hehe chicks, bro, and I’d never heard anyone in town suggest it as a meeting spot until our one party there a while back. The TV setup is fine but everything else is standard fare, and the ambiance is, uhh, interesting. I was pushing for The Craft because it’s right outside my front door, but we split the difference with Sam’s favorite place, Fynn’s of Temple Bar. If anyone would like us to use their establishment for our next Raptors Republic event, you can secure our business by emailing raptorsrepublic at gmail dot com.

https://twitter.com/Elyas_2017/status/806239486153752576

I’ll have to side with Ujiri and Weltman given the respective sample sizes in the city, though I don’t object strongly to anything Shapiro and Atkins have or have not done so far in their tenure. The work Shaprio did in Cleveland, especially from fan-engagement and system-building standpoints, was strong. The baseball duo also came in to a pretty nice situation with a ready-to-win MLB roster that just needed help on the business and farm system sides. Ujiri and Weltman (and Webster and Tolzman, and Leiweke should probably be included), however, have completely changed the way the league looks at the Raptors, stabilized a franchise that’s long sought such stability, and added ancillary elements (BioSteel, 905, All-Star, Drake) that have really improved the organizational equity there. Maybe Shapiro and Atkins end up doing that amount of good, too, but for now they’re trailing.


You’re just going to disrespect Breyy Oberholtzer like that?

As with most instances early in the offseason, fans are being reactionary, and that’s entirely fine, and I get it. It is also Dec. 7, the Jays were likely shocked that Encarnacaion didn’t take what sounds like an above-market offer, and Shapiro and Atkins very clearly wanted to move quickly to shore up the team’s floor, knowing a decent ceiling is still in place. The acquisitions have been somewhat boring (I’m not a fan of the Kendrys Morales deal but think Steve Pearce’s versatility is a huge addition at that price) and there remain holes to fill, but the Jays also have an MVP contender, quality players all the way up the middle, and a pitching staff that’s already in place and quite good. Yes, the Red Sox are going to be stupidly, annoyingly good, and it might mean the Jays are playing for the Wild Card, but that’s not the worst place to be in.

And again, it’s Dec. 7. Things will be fine-ish.

I have Styles at the top right now, but the gap between him and The Cleaner is small. I’m probably just giving Styles the edge because I get to see so much more of him, and because he’s so insanely out-performed expectations for his WWE run that I almost think he was somehow actually underrated before signing, despite being roundly considered the best talent outside of the E. He is incredible, hasn’t had a bad match in years, is a way better promo (at least as a heel) than he gets credit for, and has gotten absolutely everything handed to him over to a high degree. He is, essentially, flawless as a performer right now. Omega is amazing, too, though, and gets the Canadian bump. I have Rollins a fair margin behind those guys and not even in third, but obviously Crossfit Jesus is quite good himself.

As for ‘Mania season, well, considering I have tickets, I’m pretty damn excited. (I am unsure if I’m actually going, as I bought the tickets mostly with the safety net that I know I’ll be able to break even selling them later.) The WWE is in their lull period right now and basketball keeps me busy, so I’m kind of in “throw it on in the background” or “fast-forward through some stuff” mode right now, but January-April is the best time of the year for pro graps, and 2016’s been so incredible I’m optimistic about the next year.

The rare text-message question from The Man They Call Your Boy The Zubes: “#JustForZubes mailbag Q: Who would you rank as the top 10 wrestlers not affiliated with WWE in any way currently?

After not at all much deliberation, here’s my list, in no order (and these are my favorites, maybe not objectively the “best”): Marty Scurll, Kenny Omega, Kazuchika Okada, Will Ospreay, Ricochet/Prince Puma, Pentagon Jr., Tetsua Naito, Katsuyori Shibata, Ethan Carter III, and The Young Bucks (package deal that counts as one). This list leaves off Broken Matt Hardy, the clear number one, because my brother said he doesn’t count.

Speaking of my brother, I’m not sure I know anyone who watches more wrestling and watches it more passionately than him, save for maybe my friends at Voices of Wrestling. So I asked him for his top 10, in the event my only-sometimes-non-WWE-viewing ass isn’t a good enough authority here. Here’s Shane’s list: Kenny Omega, The Young Bucks, Jay Lethal, Adam Cole (Bay-Bay!), Katsuyori Shibata, Tetsua Naito, SANADA, Tomohiro Ishii, Yano Yoru, and Joey Ryan. (I disagree on Ryan, but Ishii is the truth, and my Stone Pitbull shirt is my favorite gym shirt.)

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December 22, 2010 The Toronto Raptors mascot gets into the Christmas Spirit prior to the start of the Raptors and Detroit Pistons NBA game at the ACC. Toronto Star/Andrew Wallace

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