Masai Ujiri played the long game and finally got his man. After 2 years of fans begging for an upgrade at PF and wondering why Ujiri hadn’t made a move for one yet we can finally see why it took so long: the price simply wasn’t right. Like most great deal makers he always has a price in mind and won’t extend beyond that, willing to wait until the market adjusts and gives him what he wants. We probably could have been watching Ibaka in a Raptors uniform from day one this season but we would have been doing so with a depleted backcourt, which would have been disastrous after injuries sidelined Delon Wright and DeMar DeRozan. Ujiri’s track record continues to be incredible and the Raptors are fortunate to have him at the helm.
The trade does give the Raptors something I’d describe as a “good problem”: their frontcourt is really crowded now. They have 96 minutes to divide up at center and power forward and they have four players who all deserve 25-30 minutes plus some developing young talent in the mix. Obviously how this plays out depends on performance and chemistry but this is a preliminary look at who should be playing and, should it come down to it, who should be kept if the Raptors decide that they can’t keep all four veterans this offseason.
The Originals
The Raptors existing frontcourt trio was already fairly potent in their minutes together, with the Patterson/Valanciunas combo probably being the best offensively, Nogueira/Patterson being the best two way lineup and Valanciunas/Nogueira being the best defensive lineup by virtue of their ability to force misses and also rebound them, something that the lighter Nogueira/Patterson duo struggles with.
As long as some combination of those three has been on the court the Raptors have been an elite team, they’ve just been derailed a bit by odd rotation decisions and injuries.
Adding Ibaka is great because it protects against continued injury problems and saves the Raptors from the temptation to throw out lineups that are clearly not working – there’s no reason to play Siakam or Sullinger with Valanciunas ever again.
Where Does Ibaka Fit?
Here’s a quick statistical comparison:
You can see that Ibaka is kind of an amalgamation of Nogueira and Patterson. Physically he’s not as quick as Patterson or as long as Nogueira but he’s the best floor spacer of the bunch and while Nogueira is more prolific at generating blocks and steals Ibaka is no slouch there either. The three are all roughly the same on the glass, putting up mediocre rebound numbers while Jonas Valanciunas is the best rebounder on the team by a large degree and remains one of the elite rebounders in the NBA, ranking 7th in the league in total rebound percentage.
Ibaka and Valanciunas are the best offensive players of the bunch and have similar scoring and efficiency numbers, but the similarities end there because how they do their damage on offense is very different. Ibaka is a catch and shoot/pick and pop specialist with 51% of his shots being catch and shoot jumpers. His percentages are solid on both his two point(48%) and three point(37%) catch and shoot attempts, making him a potent weapon that should fit perfectly into the Raptors screen-heavy attack. Valanciunas remains the Raptors best interior scorer with 75% of his attempts coming inside 10 feet, even though he does make a solid 48% of his catch and shoot jumpers from outside this season. He’s one of the best roll men in the league, with a Valanciunas catch in the paint being one of the Raptors most efficient offensive options. Ibaka could end up being a slightly better version of Patterson, one with the individual numbers to go with the intangibles, but Valanciunas brings something on that end that nobody else can.
Ibaka fits wherever they need him to, these big men all work together well already and he doesn’t do anything dramatically different than any of them. With a week off to get acquainted with what the Raptors like to do on both ends he should fit in seamlessly.
What Happens When the Season Ends?
This is a big question with both Patterson and Ibaka being up for new contracts and both figuring to take in a lot of money. There’s nothing in the collective bargaining agreement preventing the Raptors from keeping both but they gave a max contract to DeRozan, likely have another one ready for Lowry and they didn’t trade a pick and Ross for Ibaka to let him walk so we can assume he will get close to that as well. With another $30 million already committed to Valanciunas and DeMarre Carroll it’s tough to see the Raptors being willing to commit to Patterson should his offer get up into Biyombo/Mozgov territory unless they move somebody to free up some money first.
A lot of people would probably like to see Valanciunas moved to free up money but barring dramatic changes in style of play or production from Nogueira, Patterson or Ibaka this would be a mistake because he brings valuable things to the table that the Raptors won’t be able to get anywhere else. Building a team isn’t just about the throwing best players together, you need to make sure you have complimentary skillsets and make sure that your team is able to field balanced lineups. You need to be able to score inside and out, defend the perimeter and the paint and protect the glass, and Valanciunas is the only option that provides two of those to the team. We all see how bad it can get on the defensive glass when Patterson and Nogueira are out there and Ibaka is on the same level as them; the team will consistently struggle to end defensive possessions if those are the three big men getting the bulk of the minutes.
If they move Valanciunas to create room for Patterson that also takes away their best dive man and interior scorer, meaning their interior offense will be DeRozan post ups and Nogueira rolls to the rim and everything else will come from the outside in. Ibaka helps but the Raptors simply don’t have the perimeter shooting to do that with Ross gone: Powell hasn’t shown he can consistently make them at the rate necessary, Wright’s outside shot is a mystery for now and DeRozan and Joseph are both well below average for their careers from outside. Unless a Valanciunas deal brings back some premium perimeter talent or a comparable but cheaper big man the Raptors will be almost entirely dependent on Lowry and DeRozan driving into the paint, which doesn’t seem like a recipe for success based on recent history. The Raptors need more diversification, not less.
Moving Carroll is the other possibility but his value is a total question mark and with their perimeter depth chart already kind of thin they would need to get something of value that is less expensive in return, make a separate move involving one of their draftees from last season or have complete confidence in their ability to draft perimeter help that is able to contribute immediately with their late 2017 first round pick. Any scenario where that works out involves a lot of moving parts and/or a lot of luck; if anyone can do it Masai can but it’s not something that you’d want to bank on.
All of this could change as the season goes on. Maybe somebody steps up on the glass to make Valanciunas’ dominance on the glass a little less important or Nogueira becomes more reliable on the roll to make his interior offense expendable. Maybe Wright and Powell step up and manage to shoot from outside consistently enough that giving Carroll away becomes a possibility. But if it does come down to keeping three of their four frontcourt contributors Patterson should be the one to go. Keeping Nogueira is a no-brainer, he’s still locked up on his rookie deal and making significantly less than his market value. Ibaka is likely going to get whatever he wants with the resources sent out for him. It really comes down to Patterson vs Valanciunas and while Patterson is probably the better overall player Valanciunas is the only one of the foursome who brings anything unique to the table.
