After claiming their fifth victory in a row and remaining perfect after their team meeting subsequent to the OKC blowout just a week and a half ago, the tides have seemed to turn for the Toronto Raptors.
Just a couple of weekends ago, following frustrating road losses to the Hawks and Heat, I wrote a piece on how the fourth seed was where the Raptors would have to grow comfortable, and that staving off the fifth-place Hawks should be their primary concern. And yet, here we are 14 days later, sitting in the same spot in the standings, but well ahead of a struggling Atlanta squad and sitting just a game behind third-place Washington. And though it took a bit longer than we may have imagined at the start of the season, the Raptors have punched their fourth straight ticket to the NBA playoffs, something that can legitimately never be taken for granted.
As for the rest of the Eastern Conference, “struggling” would be an understatement for Atlanta, who have dropped 7 straight, most recently in embarrassing fashion to the lowly Brooklyn Nets. While their defense has been average in their past 7 contests, their offensive rating has dropped to 29th in the league during that same time span. Combine those 7 losses with a 6-1 stretch for the Raptors, and the Hawks, who were just a game back of the Raptors two weekends ago, now sit a firm 7 games back of the fourth spot. Notwithstanding my terrible predictive ability throughout my life as a Raptors fan, I think it’s pretty safe to say that home court is secured at this point. It’s all about how the top 4 seeds will shake out, and what that will mean for the first couple of playoff rounds.
The second team we’ve all been watching closely is the Washington Wizards, who have been a thorn in the side of the Raptors’ playoff hopes for the better part of the past 4 months, but as compared to a few weeks ago, the chase for the third seed may be somewhat more complicated than we imagined. The way things are going, it may not be a simple case of aiming to get to third to avoid Cleveland in the second round.
The Boston Celtics have continued winning at their early season pace and are putting a bow-and-ribbon on a pretty dominant season wire-to-wire. I’ll still put Cleveland, Toronto and Washington ahead of them in the playoff pecking order, but their regular season consistency has been remarkable. Meanwhile, a slumping Cleveland team has closed their regular season with unfathomably bad defense for a “defending” champion, dropping to the bottom third in defensive efficiency in the league overall. That may not seem that bad all things considered, but in the past 15 games, the Cavs have dropped to 29th in the league with a defensive rating of 114.1. That’s downright terrible.
So what does all of this mean? The Celtics now sit in a virtual tie with the Cavs atop the Eastern Conference, and with the easiest remaining schedules of all teams in the top 4, it’s pretty clear that they’re likely to finish first.
Here’s how the remaining schedules look for the Celtics, Cavs, Wizards, and Raps:
Boston Celtics:
- Bucks
- Magic
- @ Knicks
- Cavaliers
- @ Hawks (back-to-back)
- @ Hornets
- Nets
- Bucks
- Road: 3
- Home: 5
- Combined winning % of opponents: 44.8%
- Back-to-backs: 1
Cleveland Cavaliers:
- @ Spurs
- @ Bulls
- Sixers (back-to-back)
- Pacers
- Magic
- @ Celtics (back-to-back)
- Hawks
- @ Hawks
- @ Heat (back-to-back)
- @ Raptors
- Road: 6
- Home: 4
- Combined winning % of opponents: 52.4%
- Back-to-backs: 3
Washington Wizards:
- @ Lakers
- @ Clippers (back-to-back)
- @ Jazz
- @ Warriors
- Hornets
- @ Knicks
- Heat
- @ Pistons
- @ Heat
- Road: 7
- Home: 2
- Combined winning % of opponents: 50.4%
- Back-to-backs: 1
Toronto Raptors:
- Magic
- Hornets
- Pacers
- Sixers
- @ Pacers
- @ Pistons (back-to-back)
- Heat
- @ Knicks
- @ Cavaliers
- Road: 4
- Home: 5
- Combined winning % of opponents: 46.3%
- Back-to-backs: 1
The Celtics have the easiest schedule by far, facing the easiest competition, mostly at home, and with just one back-to-back. They’re also incentivized to try hard for the rest of the season, as the number one seed to them would mean a significant stride forward from the prior year, and home court secured until the Eastern Conference Finals. To me, it’s still laughable to think they’d have an edge against the Cavs in the ECF, but hey – let the try-hards try hard.
The Cavs on the other hand have a fairly difficult schedule to close things out, with 3 back-to-backs remaining (meaning the big 3 could rest), and with tough games remaining against the Spurs, Bulls (who will be hard-pressed to make the playoffs), Celtics, and Raptors. I’d say unless they figure out their defensive woes, beat the Celtics in their last matchup, or put the pedal to the metal until the finish (quite unlikely, given they won’t care about seeding), they’re likely to relinquish the number one seed. The only question would then be – would the number 3 or 4 seed seem like something the Cavs could drop to?
With likely the toughest schedule of the 4 teams that features 7 road games, the Wizards aren’t likely to surpass the Cavs, so I’d still predict they’ll likely land either 3 or 4, depending on how the Raptors do. Toronto, on the other hand has the second easiest schedule of the 4 teams, featuring a home-heavy stretch run, with just one back-to-back. Unless the Raptors just let up or perhaps struggles incorporating Kyle Lowry back into the mix, I’d say an 8-1, 7-2, or 6-3 record is most likely for their remaining 9 contests. This means things could get very interesting.
The weird and most likely prospect that seems to be shaping up though is a playoff seeding that places the Celtics first, Cavs second, Raptors third, and Wizards fourth. That means, after all this desperate 3-seed chasing, the Raptors would still face Cleveland in the second round, assuming they can take care of business in the first round. The Eastern Conference is starting to split down the middle with a clear rift after the fourth seed; seeds 5-9 are also separated by a narrow margin (just 2.5 games), meaning a first round matchup for the Raptors could be any of the Hawks, Bucks, Pacers, Heat or even Bulls. I’d say the Hawks, Bucks or Pacers are most likely, but for now, I’ll give up analyzing that half of the conference.
So Raptors fans…here we are – the annual home stretch that features so many possible playoff seeding options, it’ll make your head spin. The dangerous thing to do now is try to “engineer” your seeding by constantly scoreboard watching and potentially tanking games at the end of the season to get favourable seeding. The Raptors will have to prioritize winning and hopefully getting a healthy Lowry back into the mix. But in the meantime for us fans, I’d say the fourth seed may not be so bad after all.
