The explanation for this weekly column at Raptors Republic, called The Black Box Report, is fairly simple. Is it a literary journal? Maybe; it sure sounds like it. If it were, I would probably read it. There would be stories about former winners who are down and out, but really only biding their time until a triumphant return, like Terence Davis. Unfortunately, this is not that journal. This column is for myself and Samson Folk to simultaneously look forwards and back, explicating the under-examined and trying to explain what went, goes, and maybe even will go, on under the hood. The black box is the vessel inside of which all information is stored, and it’s known for its opacity. Hopefully, this column can add some transparency to what actually puts the points on the board.
Looking back – Zatzman
Games:
9:00 pm EST on Friday February 28 against the Charlotte Hornets – 99-96 L
6:00 pm EST on Sunday March 1 @ the Denver Nuggets – 133-118 L
9:00 pm EST on Tuesday March 3 @ the Phoenix Suns – 123-114 W
10:30 pm EST on Thursday March 5 @ the Golden State Warriors – 121-113 W
Wrong for the right reasons
It’s all too often I take victory laps in this here section of the column, so it’s only right that I self-flagellate, too. I could not have been more wrong last week in my prediction that Fred VanVleet’s play would make the difference. In fact, he didn’t play at all because of a sore left shoulder that he aggravated while trying to get through a screen in Toronto’s February 25 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks.
Of course, without VanVleet, the Raptors had some measure of difficulty containing opponents’ lead guards. Devonte’ Graham was passed mostly between Norman Powell, Pat McCaw, and Kyle Lowry. Graham didn’t shoot well from the floor, but he shot four-of-10 from deep, and he torched McCaw in those opportunities, as McCaw wasn’t able to squeeze through screens to stay connected to Graham and bother his shot.
Jamal Murray scored 22 efficient points and shot six-of-10 from deep. He did much of his damage in transition, but McCaw was likewise unable to corral him. Per nba matchup data, the Nuggets scored 1.44 points per possession with McCaw as the primary on Murray, with Murray himself shooting two-of-three. It’s important to note that Powell, in fewer minutes, was no better.
Devin Booker likewise had a field day against Toronto. He scored 22 points with 10 assists, as he repeatedly beat his defenders with his dribble. McCaw did a much, much better job against Booker, but OG Anunoby was most often his primary defender, and Booker was too quick for Anunoby on multiple occasions. Per nba matchup data, the Suns scored 1.71 points per possession when Anunoby was Booker’s primary.
Steph Curry didn’t shoot well from the field, but no one on Toronto had a chance containing his jittery first step. Curry broke free past his primary defenders all night, and his ability to ignore the first line of defense was a major reason why Toronto played a close game with the league-worst Warriors.
This is sort of a long way to say that the Raptors need VanVleet desperately. He is one of the league’s best guard defenders, and Toronto doesn’t have any single player who can mimic that performance over huge minutes. Lowry is best as a switching defender, causing havoc off the ball, and he’s probably a little too slow at this point to guard primary initiators and off-ball shooters for 40 minutes a game. Anunoby is best used on wings. McCaw, Powell, and others can’t handle the job as well as VanVleet, either. So, I can’t self-flagellate too viciously; I was right, at least, in my prediction that Toronto would need him. It’s largely because of VanVleet’s absence, as much as the lack of centers, that Toronto had a 2-2 week.
An almost-empty bench
Last week, the Raptors needed some of the miraculous, next-man-up performances that so defined much of their season. By and large, they didn’t happen.
Toronto averaged 15.8 bench points per game, which on surface level is already not fantastic. The worst bench-scoring team in the league is the Portland Trailblazers, who average 26.4 bench points per game. But if you take away Chris Boucher, who may not even be in the rotation when the games start to matter, the Raptors averaged only 8.3 bench points per game. That’s not enough.
To be fair, there were some bright spots outside of the scoring category. McCaw played a very solid game against the Suns, even if his contributions didn’t show up in the points category. Terence Davis dunked multiple Warriors into oblivion. But there was more bad than good. Against the Suns, Davis infuriated Nick Nurse after he turned the ball over on one possession and then air-balled a stepback triple outside of the flow of the offense on the next. He was benched and didn’t return. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson’s offense has been the wrong type of unpredictable. After a big game against the Bucks, Matt Thomas hasn’t offered much at all. It seems that he’s on scouting reports now, and he isn’t able to find the same shots that were available before. Instead of hunting open triples, he seemed lost offensively, standing still rather than jittering around screens, and forcing contested mid-range looks as late-clock bailouts. Without his shooting boosting bench units, scoring was minimal.
Toronto’s hope has to be that this is one of those problems that will solve itself. Toronto’s offense was forced to play without a point guard for 38 minutes this week; in that time, Toronto’s offense was a measly 88.4, lowest on-off rating on the team. When the team is healthy, that won’t happen. One of VanVleet or Lowry will be on the court to stabilize the offense at all times. Powell and his Jordan-esque scoring chops will shift and give the bench a supernova option. The return of Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol will give Toronto 48 minutes of screen-setting, shooting, and a dash of post play.
Instead of being the primary option, Thomas and his shooting will fade to the edges, where he can find himself open once against because the defense pays too much attention elsewhere. Davis can push in transition and otherwise cede the spotlight to other guards. Balance, in all things, is necessary. For the Raptors, it’s been a week without offensive balance. Things will be better. But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t point out some problems when they do arise.
Looking forward – Folk
Games:
9:00 pm EST on Sunday March 8 @ the Sacramento Kings
9:00 pm EST on Monday March 9 @ the Utah Jazz
Playing to strengths
One of the most incredible aspects of this Raptors team is their ability to fight and scrap their way to wins that they (don’t seem to) have a chance at. It’s helped to restructure the how the average Raptors fan thinks about this team, and has given truck to the “Heart of a Champion” cliche that remains overused in sports, but perhaps not with this team? But, the fact remains that no matter how beat up the Raptors are, they do a great job of trying to play to their strengths. And one of the main strengths of any iteration of this years Raptors is transition offense.
This brings us to the Sacramento Kings. A team that inserted itself back into relevance last year while riding the Sonic-like stylings of De’Aaron Fox – one of the coolest players in the NBA. They pushed the pace, and an emboldened Fox led the Kings attack turning it into a track meet that a lot of other teams couldn’t keep up with. Naturally, they weren’t one of the best teams in the league (too young, no stability) but it seemed like they had found at least a pillar to build on. Well, that changed when Luke Walton was hired as head coach (amid Sexual Assault allegations) and asked the team to slow things down, in a league that was speeding up.
They cut the legs out from under their most intriguing building block, and have spent their whole season working back to the idea that the ball in Fox’s hands = good. But, at least they’re there now. Combine that with a shrewd deadline move to swap Dewayne Dedmon for the criminally underrated Alex Len. Len has been a terrific backstop for their defense of late.
Small sample size alert
Prior to the Kings game against the 76ers, Len has held opponents to just 11/49 shooting from the field (22.4%) and 30-percent of those misses have been blocked shots. In his 6 games with the Kings he hasn’t registered a single game without a positive plus-minus, and the Kings are 5-1. He’s also been a tremendous help on the glass (8.2 boards per game).
It would be interesting to see if the Kings would opt to move Len into the starting lineup to bang around with Ibaka, or continue on with the undersized Harry Giles III. Either way, Len brought 15-25 minutes of real big-men minutes to the Kings – something they’ve been searching for all year.
It took Walton too long to come around on the Fox decision. Will he give Len more minutes to see just how far this goes?
The most intriguing question for this matchup is how will the Kings respond to the Raptors attempt to speed things up? Will they assume form and put on their fastest pair of shoes? Or will they regress to a half-court mess, ripe for the picking of the Raptors aggressive scheme?
Lowry and Conley
One of the most intriguing things about last year was the rumours that Masai Ujiri was trying to trade Kyle Lowry for Mike Conley. Those rumours preceded the Marc Gasol trade, a trade that in all likelihood, played as big a part in the championship as anything else. But, the Raptors organization still tried to trade Lowry, for maybe the (reportedly) 3rd or 4th time. Thank goodness it didn’t shake out with Lowry leaving the Raptors, and remarkably, he was perceived to be the lower valued player. It’s crazy to think about with this year and last year’s playoffs in mind.
Conley and Lowry have very similar career numbers, they’ve both been on winning teams for long periods of time, and they’re both widely respected in the league. Only, Conley was never tagged with the “playoff choker” brand like Lowry was (undeserved, always) and one would have to assume that was a driving force in the trade talks.
On top of that, Lowry has mentioned that he was initially upset (as a much younger man) when he was on the Grizzlies and they drafted Conley – effectively showing Lowry their intentions with him as a lead guard. So, there’s always been a link between these two players. A link that nearly came full circle last year. Only now, as we look ahead to their matchup, Lowry finally looks to have the upper hand. Lowry has very few equals mentally in the NBA. He’s a brilliant floor general, and a natural leader of men. It’s taken so long for the league and media to recognize what an incredible career Lowry has pieced together.
Jose Calderon spent most of his career in Toronto fighting off other point guards that had come in to replace him. Lowry has spent the better part of 6 years stepping over his competition as if he were Allen Iverson. We’ve been spoiled by point guards in Toronto. And I can’t wait to see Lowry and Conley matchup next week, even better as Conley has started to round into form, because I know Lowry will assert himself as the best point guard on the court. Kyrie Irving, Kemba Walker, Malcolm Brogdon, Jeff Teague, Eric Bledsoe, Mike Conley, it doesn’t matter. A refusal to quit, and a mind that sees things few others do on a basketball court has enabled him to win a race that he started years after most of his contemporaries. A race that he finally got to enter in Toronto, and thankfully didn’t end in Memphis.
Have a blessed day.
