When Pascal Siakam first ascended as a true scoring option for the Raptors, it was done on the back of agile and polished post play, an improved corner jumper, and an effortless motor in transition that fuelled his long, loping strides. This year, he’s been asked to take on one of the heaviest tolls of any offensive option in the NBA. Nick Nurse launched Siakam towards stardom without much in the way of screen support or scheme ingenuity. Siakam was going to earn his stripes in iso, and for the most part, he did.
Siakam went from isolating on less than 10-percent of his possessions last year, to nearly 20-percent this year. He’s actually more prolific than Kawhi Leonard was last year for the Raptors, although not as proficient. His statistical contemporaries for this season are LeBron James and Russell Westbrook – fairly good company.
The answers for why Siakam was cast in this role, and how he’s succeeded in it are relatively the same.
- He hunts mismatches like an apex predator
- He can turn any possession into a post-up to get comfortable
- He improves at an absurd pace (as evidenced by his pull-up jumper)
- His body control and speed can transport him anywhere he wants on the court
All the aforementioned qualities lend themselves to an adaptability in Siakam’s game that makes him really hard to scheme for, but he’s also very changeable when he meets a scheme that’s setup to stop him in his tracks. The Celtics have a great scheme and it’s earned them the 4th best defense in the NBA this year. However (comma) they don’t employ a prototypical “Siakam-stopper” so he boogied on them for an uber-efficient 33 points. The teams that have been able to handle Siakam, have the type of defender(s) that can hang with Siakam for a whole possession, many times in a game. It’s a credit to Siakam that the 4 players I’ll highlight in this piece are All-Defense first team talents. In fact you could make the case that all 4 occupy space as top-5 defenders in the NBA. Additionally, they all reside in the Eastern Conference, and the Raptors will likely face off against two of these teams in the playoffs, but it could be three.
Siakam battles the NBA’s true heavyweights with regularity. It’s a hard road, but the great ones walk it. No one said slaying dragons was easy.
Giannis Antetokounmpo – Bam Adebayo – Jonathan Isaac – Ben Simmons
Yeah, it’s a hell of a group to go through.
We’ll start with Jonathan Isaac because he’s guarded Siakam more than any other player this year, and Siakam has actually flashed a lot of encouraging signs against Isaac and the Magic. Also, Isaac rules.
Siakam shot 13-30 against Isaac this year
Since Isaac and Siakam are already so well acquainted in how they play each other, it makes for one of the more interesting matchups. There isn’t an aspect of trying things out anymore. For the most part, they’ve figured out each others quirks and rhythms and try to counter their matchup in real time. Siakam is an increasingly impressive post player, but he strays away from those possessions against Isaac, because he’s found that Isaac’s length can hang around after all the bumping and spinning. He’s also really hesitant to attack him without motion. So, all the straight isolations we saw Siakam dabbling in this year are typically saved for defenders of a lower quality. Siakam’s weapon of choice against Isaac is screen play.
Isaac plays fast and loose with defensive spacing in a way that I’ve never seen before. He relies on his go-go-gadget arms and cat-quick reflexes to play drop defense and contest 3-pointers in the same possessions. His range is incredible, and watching Siakam try to escape it makes for a super entertaining game of cat and mouse. One that Siakam has actually become quite good at. When Siakam can actually stick Isaac on top of a screen he immediately heads for the bucket. When Siakam got downhill on a screen action (didn’t let the Magic defense flatten it out and cause a reset) he shot 8-13 in the Isaac matchup. The lifeblood of Siakam’s offense against the Magic lies within his ability to diligently work off-ball and with screens to get a bit of breathing room against Isaac.
Out of the four matchups, Isaac has the toughest time guarding Siakam when he’s the screener. Siakam had quite a few nice possessions on the short-roll against the Magic, both as a scorer and playmaker. And it’s important to note, he did this with Lowry, Terence Davis II, and VanVleet all having a turn at ball handling.
The matchups between Isaac and Siakam somewhat validate a theory of mine. Siakam isn’t just a gifted physical player, but genuinely, a great thinker on the court who can respond well to what teams throw at him. This will obviously be one of the most important through lines for the postseason, and I’m excited to see if it bears out. At least with Isaac and the Magic, Siakam has been diligent, intelligent, and opportunistic in how he handles their defensive gameplan.
I hope we see this in the first round.
Let’s move on to the matchup with Bam Adebayo.
Siakam shot 0-5 against Adebayo this year + 2 TO’s
Adebayo was the single most impressive matchup with Siakam this year, but he’s also surrounded by the worst defense out of the 4 players we’re discussing in this piece. Basically, Adebayo was really impressive dodging screens and sticking to Siakam, and he was also stronger than, and just as fast as Siakam in the open court. It was a pretty disastrous performance for Siakam, so much so, that the Raptors basically put Siakam in the corner for the second half to pull Adebayo away from most of the core actions of the Raptors offense. Now, that’s not to say it’s all doom and gloom vs. the Heat. Siakam was impressive on switches against everyone else on the Heat squad, including Jimmy Butler. The Heat play a lot of zone and Siakam did a pretty good job of navigating it, too. All in all, he was 5-9 for 13 points when he managed to skirt Adebayo in favour of another Heat player.
The Raptors did end up losing that game in overtime, and Nick Nurse & co. made the decision to try and let the rest of the team run the offense against the Heat instead of forcing the issue with a litany of option plays with Siakam. Lowry also shot 2-18 from the floor and 0-11 from downtown, it was a weird game.
Siakam’s favourite screening partner is Gasol – and for good reason – but if they play the Heat in the playoffs, it would be worthwhile to give Siakam some big/little screen actions to try and create some switches and mismatches. Lowry and VanVleet both have a pretty good nose for when to slip a screen and slide into open 3-point space and Siakam is a fine enough trigger man if he doesn’t get the edge or a switch on the screen.
There’s a lot left for the Raptors to try with Siakam and Adebayo, but so much of that matchup is in the dark at this point. Maybe we’ll see some wrinkles thrown in when these teams play on August 3rd. Between the two players, Adebayo has the upper hand right now. But, between the teams the Raptors are the more dangerous by a significant margin.
Let’s talk about the always controversial, Ben Simmons.
Siakam shot 6-21 against Simmons this year
This matchup is the hardest one to predict coming in the playoffs. With Siakam’s ever developing jumper, the 76ers can’t afford to put Joel Embiid on him this year. These two teams saw a lot of each other, and the 76ers were pretty comfortable with both Simmons and Al Horford on Siakam.
Of the four matchups, Ben Simmons was by far the laziest on defense against Siakam. He dropped really low on almost all screen actions and sagged way off of Siakam most possessions. He treated him like, well, Ben Simmons. The worst part was that Siakam wasn’t able to turn the extra space into a runway to the lane, because the 76ers were packing the paint against him. Trying to beat Simmons off the dribble before attempting to outfox Embiid at the rim is a really big ask. It’s also not something Siakam tried to do a lot of. For the most part, Siakam took the space and used it as a license to let it fly from deep. The tough part with this was that Siakam continuously shot horribly on 3-pointers vs. the 76ers. Whether they were semi-open, off the dribble, wide open, it didn’t matter. Siakam could not stick his threes vs. Philly.
Make one three, and now the D pushes up and you can back cut to the hoop
Siakam will, of course, have to be mindful of when he can shoot the gaps of the 76ers defense and get to the rim, but the difference maker will be the outside shot. The difference in how Simmons and Horford will respond to Siakam above the break will be night and day if he starts hitting his shots at a rate that’s close to his average, instead of sub-20-percent. Of course, Siakam has to work himself into mismatches, just like any other game. It’s a huge part of his offensive arsenal and he was 11-21 against players that weren’t Ben Simmons on the 76ers. Part of that is off-ball cuts, part of it is hunting mismatches, but all of it speaks to Siakam’s ability to find spots for himself. Siakam shot really poorly in this matchup this year, but I think there’s a very easy route to improvement.
And finally, the likely DPOY, Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Siakam shot 7-16 vs. Antetokounmpo this year
Similar to the 76ers, the Bucks realized they couldn’t get away with sticking a center on Siakam any longer. They were also smart enough to recognize that Khris Middleton wasn’t a particularly good matchup either. Naturally, the player to guard Siakam is Antetokounmpo, the likely DPOY for the 19-20 season.
The Bucks famously utilize a drop defense with Brook Lopez, Robin Lopez (the LoPi) and Antetokounmpo, with their guards and wings fervently chasing over the top of screens.
Antetokounmpo has a tendency to hang back towards the paint since he’s so eager to help at the rim (most of the bucks are) and due to the Bucks packing the paint and asking players to shoot 3’s on them, Siakam obliged. The Raptors didn’t ask him to roll into the paint because it was already so packed. If Siakam was screening, he popped and tried to attack on the move. But mostly, Siakam tried to relocate and find his spots along the 3-point line in this matchup. He didn’t want any part of the post. The good news is he ate Middleton for breakfast when they were matched up, and his possessions against Marvin Williams produced good shots, but bad outcomes. If Bud is going to keep Antetokounmpo’s minutes low again in the playoffs, it would make sense for Nurse to maximize Siakam’s time without #34 on the floor. The Raptors will need players like Lowry, Powell, VanVleet and Gasol to space the floor to punish the Bucks, and Siakam will help turn the defense. If Siakam sees daylight leading to the rim, he’ll punch through the gap, but it’s a tough job vs. Lopez and Antetokounmpo.
The success that Siakam had came directly from transition, and clever relocation. Since Antetokounmpo is usually around the rim offensively, and Siakam’s rover style of defense can sometimes set him loose on the break, he can beat the Bucks down the floor. And, a 36-percent 3-point shooter on heavy volume has to be able to translate that skill to the playoffs, whether it’s pulling up, or relocating for catch and shoot opportunities – both of which he did reasonably well against the Bucks. He was 7-16 from downtown against the Bucks jumbo front-court, and if those numbers correlate to the playoffs they’ll no doubt buoy some unsavoury stretches the Raptors might have offensively.
The somewhat disappointing result of Siakam’s matchups is how little he attacked drop defenses from the mid-range. If this year was all about moving Siakam closer to the type of superstar that can lift the Raptors offense in the playoffs, the mid-range is going to be important. This isn’t to say that Siakam was forcing things at the rim, because he was stretching his legs from behind the 3-point line and that’s uber valuable. It just projects a little more difficult against the Bucks, with their penchant for chasing over the top – something they’re damn good at. Of course, you don’t build your whole game around one team, but if Kawhi Leonard showed Raptors fans anything it’s that having a hero from mid-range is one of the best ways to cripple even the best schemes in the playoffs. Not to mention, with Siakam’s size, length, and growing game as a facilitator the more time he spends in the middle of the floor while in control, the better.
With all that said, Siakam impresses me more and more with every watch. This lineup of defenders is a little bit insane, and I have trouble thinking of players who have had to go through something like this 2 years in a row. It makes me think Siakam is as eager for a playoff series against the Celtics as the Raptors fans are. When Siakam gets a break from the NBA’s elite defenders there is a nonchalance to his game that’s hard to capture in words. He leverages his advantages extremely well, and there’s so few players league-wide that can match him.
Even though I find myself rooting for Siakam, it’s hard not to watch this film and marvel at everyone involved. This is the stuff that makes the NBA playoffs great. These are the matchups you remember for years and years. And it’s an exciting thought that Siakam has the ability to win them.
Have a blessed day.
