Gameday: Raptors @ Pelicans, Jan 2nd

The quest for an undefeated 2021 begins.

Seemingly the victims of a hot streak from downtown against the Pelicans in their opener, the Raptors are fresh off a game where the New York Knicks were historically bad from downtown. Oh, to be as high variance as a 3-point dependent team. Thank goodness the Raptors don’t suffer from that.

This NBA season has been the epitome of ‘variance’ so far, though. Take an informed fan from February 24th of 2020, show them the standings now, and they would ask what in the hell happened to the NBA. Of course there’s an answer that involves roster turnover etc. but that probably wouldn’t be entirely convincing. You would have to explain the circumstances of the bubble, no fans, short off-seasons, and the like. The NBA is in topsy-turvy mode, and the Raptors have been caught (erm) tops-ing and turv-ing. This rematch against the Pelicans allows them an opportunity to lay claim to the semblance of normalcy. “See, we beat the teams that we’re better than. It was a weird couple games for everyone.”

To do so, they’ll need key-contributors Fred VanVleet and OG Anunoby to hit their open threes this time around. The Pelicans under new head coach Stan Van Gundy have a clear identity as a paint-packing team. They’ve ascended to a top-10 defensive rating league-wide and are top-2 in paint points. The Raptors offense has been hard-pressed to find any points in the paint (I’ve written about it here) and if the Pelicans are going to incentivize a 3-point shot the Raptors already have proclivity for? Bombs away.

Fresh off of Siakam’s ‘suspension but not suspension’, the hope is that he’ll be a little bit more paint oriented. And if the Pelicans drop low, I think you have to trust in your shooting, your passing, and your teammates. If you find room for a mismatch post-up, a switch on a screen, or anything that gives you even a hint of a lane to the bucket I think you shoot the gap, though. Siakam is lithe, long, and possesses great finishing touch – rim pressure has to be a part of his game. If it’s not, he has to develop the craft to get to the free throw line and the bucket more consistently. With all that said, the only disappointing sequence I’ve felt like Siakam has had was the 2nd half against the 76ers. Everything else – as far as process, not results – has looked encouraging to me. Albeit, for a pseudo All-Star. He doesn’t look like an All-NBA 2nd team player right now.

Matt Thomas has been neglected the last couple games, with Stanley Johnson usurping most of his minutes. Nurse cited size and defense for the reason behind that. I think Thomas is typically a far more valuable player to have on the court, but the Pelicans are a big team. It should be interesting to see if Nurse goes back to Thomas, like he did in the opener, or if he stays with the Johnson minutes. As for Malachi Flynn, I can’t say. There’s no indication he’s a defensive liability, and the Raptors have been operating as one of the worst offenses in the league. My best guess? Nurse likes playing veterans, and the veterans look good in practice.

Defensively, I would expect the Raptors to employ a similar strategy to the opener. Yes, they’ve been on the right side of a historically poor shooting performance, but the process and rotations have gotten better since opening night, and they have earned the #2 defense in the league. Anunoby as the primary on Zion Williamson with VanVleet and Kyle Lowry digging in when they’re near the ball. It could be that Williamson dove deep on tape and will make the proper reads, but we’ll see. Siakam should draw the Ingram matchup on defense again, and outside of pick n’ roll defense in the 4th quarter, he did a good job in the last game. This should be a good test of where the defense is really at. Regardless, cross your fingers that the Raptors don’t allow anymore straight line drives from the 3-point line to Steven Adams again.

I am cautiously hoping for good things. At the very least, the Pelicans are fun.