Gameday: Raptors @ Bucks, Feb. 16

After dropping an absolute stinker to the already stinky Minnesota Timberwolves on Sunday, the Toronto Raptors have a lot to play for in the upcoming five-game stretch that starts tonight in Milwaukee.

The Raptors will play the Bucks back-to-back before taking on the Timberwolves again and then hosting the Philadelphia 76ers back-to-back. It’s a crucial stretch for the Raptors to fight their way back to a playoff spot and .500, and how they play should say a lot about how well they match up against the Eastern Conference elite. With OG Anunoby and Yuta Watanabe both doubtful for tonight, the Raptors are fighting an uphill battle.

Milwaukee has lost three games in a row and will enter tonight’s matchup hungry for a win against a Raptors team that they have matched up well against this season. The Raptors’ lack of size in the frontcourt makes it really hard to wall-up against the Bucks, and with Aron Baynes playing poorly as of late, he will have a hard time as the backline defender in charge of stopping Giannis Antetekounmpo.

The last time these teams played each other, the Bucks won 115-108. Interestingly, the Raptors played small down the stretch of that game, but as we have seen as recently as the loss to the Timberwolves, the Raptors struggle to keep opponents off the free-throw line and the offensive boards when going small. That scheme works offensively and as a turnover-creating machine, but without Anunoby, it creates so many defensive problems that it hasn’t been very effective of late. It’s no wonder that the Raptors are 4-10 in games that are within 5 points in the final five minutes, when the Raptors usually play small ball and other teams exploit their lineup holes.

Fortunately for the Raptors, Jrue Holiday is out and the Bucks lack good depth at the guard position without him. That means Kyle Lowry and specifically Fred VanVleet should be able to punish the Bucks, who mostly play a drop coverage with their big men dropping way into the paint. VanVleet should be able to use screen help to his advantage by pulling up for above-the-break three-pointers against the drop. Powell has also historically been a Bucks’ killer and he needs to have a big night offensively if the Raptors want to stand a chance.

As for Pascal Siakam, he has been on a great run as of late, but unfortunately couldn’t find his touch and had his last-second layup rim out against the Timberwolves, causing the Raptors to lose. The loss doesn’t rest entirely on his shoulders, of course, but he is shooting just 18.8 percent in clutch time this season and has to be more effective as a scorer late in games. Whether that means running more pick-and-roll or being more aggressive targeting mismatches in the post, there is room to improve.

Pascal Siakam was stunned after missing this game-tying layup 😬 pic.twitter.com/tLreCng1hh
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) February 15, 2021

On the bright side, as Robel brought up on Twitter, Siakam is doing a better job creating contact on his first step rather than his second, which we saw on that final possession when he created the space to get a clean look at the basket. Process-wise, it was a step in the right direction for Siakam. Results-wise, it was another clutch-time loss for the Raptors.

The Raptors need to figure out how to succeed in the clutch as well as in their small-ball scheme soon, especially since the two often go hand-in-hand. Without a reliable traditional center in the rotation, the Raptors have nowhere else in the rotation to look for help.

Game Info

Tipoff: 8:00pm EST | TV: Sportsnet | Radio: Sportsnet 590. The Raptors are a 3.5 point underdog, according to the NBA odds here.

Raptors Lineup

OG Anunoby (left calf strain) is doubtful, Yuta Watanabe (ankle) is doubtful, and Patrick McCaw (knee) is out. Jalen Harris and Malachi Flynn are on assignment with the 905.

PG: Kyle Lowry

SG: Fred VanVleet, DeAndre’ Bembry, Matt Thomas

SF: Norman Powell, Terence Davis, Paul Watson

PF: Pascal Siakam, Stanley Johnson, Yuta Watanabe

C: Aron Baynes, Chris Boucher