Morning Coffee – Tue, Feb 16

12-15 | A Drummond Day Dream

A Raptors trade for Andre Drummond would be complicated – The Athletic

Even a package of Baynes, Boucher, Patrick McCaw and Stanley Johnson only amounts to $21.3 million, not enough to take Drummond back. So if Powell isn’t a part of the framework, the Raptors are looking at sending out five players, at least two of whom are in the rotation right now. You know I’m fond of Raptors 905, but that’s a lot of roster space to make up, and the tax bill escalates quickly when you’re taking on salary and signing three or four new players, even at the minimum. And that’s before the consideration of draft pick compensation to make any of this worth Cleveland’s time. The Knicks and Thunder both have cap space they could rent out for assets, but little of that helps because it’s the Raptors, not the Cavaliers, who are taking on too large a salary no matter the deal structure. There’s always a way, just not a straightforward one here.

For those reasons, a Drummond acquisition seems unlikely. Since the Raptors don’t leak much themselves, there’s space for other teams to exploit an obvious need — a centre on an expiring deal — and use that for leverage in the market. It’s happened before.

It does beg the question of what options the Raptors do have, something we’ll discuss in the coming weeks. There aren’t a ton of cheap centres around the league on bad teams. Richaun Holmes, Khem Birch and Robin Lopez might be the types you’re looking at, with Valanciunas, Gorgui Dieng or Cody Zeller too expensive and Mason Plumlee or Al Horford owed too much term. JaVale McGee exists, if you’re already talking to the Cavs. The other option could be to lean into the smaller, faster, switchier identity and expand the target pool (P.J. Tucker, Malik Monk, etc). There’s also the question of going in the other direction as sellers, where Powell would have a solid market and, of course, Lowry would have value if that were something he wanted.

It’s still pretty early for this kind of talk. But the strangeness of the season and the James Harden trade occurring so early, it feels like the rumour mill is picking up steam further in advance of the deadline than usual. We’ll adjust coverage accordingly, with pieces on what the Raptors can do, potential trade targets, potential selling options and my annual “all your trade ideas are bad” column in the coming weeks. Sadly, it’s unlikely this trade season will end with Ujiri telling Baynes that he’s better than Drummond.

Andre Drummond addresses obvious needs for Raptors but a deal will be tricky – Yahoo!

Drummond would be a lifeline as compared to Baynes. He is far from a perfect player, and there are real concerns about committing long-term to a throwback center that hasn’t shown any inclination towards modernizing, but the Raptors aren’t in the market for perfect. The bottom line is that Drummond would come cheap, and he would be an upgrade. Just on that level, the deal would make sense. Even with his warts and all, adding Drummond would significantly improve the Raptors roster.

The tricky part is finding a deal that works. Drummond makes nearly $29 million on an expiring deal, and so the Raptors would need to send out roughly equivalent salary since they are already over the salary cap. That means either Kyle Lowry is involved (which would be entirely counterproductive towards winning) or that the Raptors would need to ship out multiple players just to match the money, which would necessitate additional teams being introduced so that the Cavaliers don’t suddenly have 20 players on their roster.

A four-for-one deal with Baynes, Norman Powell, Pat McCaw, and Terence Davis could theoretically work, or a smaller three-for-one with Baynes, Powell, and Chris Boucher is also possible if the Raptors waited until March 3 when Boucher is trade-eligible. The deal is unlikely include meaningful draft compensation for the Cavaliers, who acquired Drummond at last season’s trade deadline for two expiring veterans and two distant second-round picks. If anything, the Raptors might get something in return if Powell or Davis were to be rerouted elsewhere. Either way, constructing a deal that works will be difficult.

As for the player itself, Drummond is very much glass half-full. Drummond is one of the most prolific rebounders of all-time, and he would single-handedly resolve that issue for the Raptors. He can be quite skilled on the ball with a functional handle and fluid mobility that allows him to get into the paint on his own, or to function as a dribble hand-off threat. Drummond is also disruptive as a help defender with his length and agility allowing him to generate deflections, and he is a capable shot-blocker, albeit not as prolific as his athleticism may suggest. He also provides a dive threat on the pick-and-roll and is one of the few bigs in the league that pairs both quickness and power in the paint.

But then again, Drummond in theory has always been better than Drummond in actuality. He carries the label of being an empty stats player and has never contributed to a winning team. Drummond is known to be overeager offensively, calling his own number and forcing difficult driving shots that compromises his efficiency. He is also feeds more from others than what he contributes, given that he isn’t a threat to shoot, a significant liability at the line (career 47 percent foul shooter) and often ventures outside of his role.

Report: Toronto Raptors and Cleveland Cavaliers engaged in trade talks for Andre Drummond – Raptors HQ

A trade for Drummond has its share of downsides. The centre is on an expiring contract and commands upwards of $27-million in outgoing contracts in a trade. This means Toronto has to include some substance in any deal, with Norman Powell as the most likely rotation player to be the figurehead of a package. As pointed out by The Athletic’s Blake Murphy, not including Powell — assuming that Fred VanVleet, Kyle Lowry, Pascal Siakam, and OG Anunoby are rightfully off limits — in an outgoing deal means Toronto has to send five players to Cleveland, which is problematic in itself for a team already struggling with lack of useful depth.

Here’s where I’ll say my piece: the Raptors may need a centre, but shipping out Powell for Drummond on an expiring contract feels like a huge mistake at this juncture of the season. Norm has proven his worth with Anunoby out of the lineup over the past two weeks, emerging as a crucial offensive player in a starting lineup that has pushed the team to the NBA’s sixth-best offense by rating. He’s also on one of the most valuable contracts in the league; a guy with his production making less than $11-million per year is an enormous jewel in a trade package. Wasting it on six months of Andre Drummond, whose motor has been a question mark since he came into the league, is a kind of rare overpay you don’t normally see Masai Ujiri and Bobby Webster make. There’s a reason Ujiri famously told Jonas Valanciunas that he was “way better than Drummond” in 2017 — Valanciunas had to grind to improve and find his niche in the league; the same can’t be said for Drummond.

Then again, the Raptors do need a centre, and have been left in an awful spot since losing out on Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka in quick succession in the off-season. This could just be the going rate when you need a usable fifth player in your starting lineup.

The Raptors might trade Norm Powell for a big man, but Andre Drummond isn’t the answer | The Star

The fact is, the Raptors don’t need a lot but they do need something, and Ujiri and Webster know it. They knew it before the Drummond availability issue became public, and it would be a dereliction of their duty if they weren’t trying to get something done.

Drummond is not the guy, all things considered. He’s better than Baynes, but the cost is unworkable and untenable.

Ujiri and Webster need to keep doing what they’ve been doing all season: trying to find a workable, tenable solution to the biggest problem the team has. Whether they can do it now, or whether it’s closer to the March 25 trade deadline, or whether it’s when the buyout market opens, or whether they can do it without gutting the team is the issue.

And the fact is, the Raptors aren’t that bad right now. Yeah, they’ve given away some games they shouldn’t have, but even turning two losses into wins would have them tied for fourth in the East instead of two games out of 12th.

They’ve been getting no traction on the season, and maybe all that’s needed is one minor tweak plus more consistent play from the team’s best players.

“You’ve just got to continue to work and continue to just push and push, and hopefully roll off some more wins in a row,” Lowry said Sunday. “I think that’s what we’ve missed this year, is just a consecutive win streak — a big five-, six-, seven-game winning streak.”

What are the hurdles facing Raptors in potential trade for Drummond? – Video – TSN

The Raptors have reportedly shown interest in trading for Andre Drummond, who would provide a much-needed boost on the boards for Toronto, but there would be some obstacles if the team was to try and finalize something. TSN Raptors reporter Josh Lewenberg explains.

A Raptors trade for Drummond would pose hard salary cap, on-court questions – Sportsnet

OK, so the means of a trade are harder than most would like. But let’s say for argument’s sake that the Raptors and Cavaliers are able to come to an agreement on a deal. How, then, would Drummond fit on this Raptors squad?

Well, he would immediately make them a better rebounding team. Toronto is the third-worst defensive rebounding team in the league, with a defensive rebounding rate of only 71.6 per cent, so acquiring Drummond and his third-best 35.9 per cent defensive-rebounding rate and league-best 24.3 per cent rebounding rate overall would help the Raptors greatly.

Additionally, Drummond would figure to be a much more effective roll threat than Baynes is at the moment and has even improved as a passer and play-maker over the years, able to effectively recognize and kick out of doubles that may come his way in the post.

So, yeah, compared to the current centre situation the Raptors have, Drummond — all six-foot-10, 279 pounds of him — would be an upgrade, but that doesn’t mean he would be a perfect fit.

NBA Power Rankings – Utah Jazz top the charts, Kevin Durant wins in the Bay Area – ESPN

This Week: 17
Last Week: 18

Every time it feels like the Raptors are ready to take a step forward, they take at least one back. Look no further than losing at home to the lowly Timberwolves — playing without D’Angelo Russell — on Sunday night. It’s obviously a bizarre season for the Raptors, given they are playing the entire campaign away from home; but at some point, the old version of this team has to show up on a regular basis … right? — Bontemps

NBA Power Rankings: Clippers climb, leaguewide trade targets – The Athletic

This Week: 16
Last Week: 14

12-15, +1.8 net rating
Weekly slate: Win at Grizzlies, Win at Wizards, Loss at Celtics, Loss to Wolves

Trade target idea: Bradley Beal

Masai Ujiri has never been afraid of making a big swing for the Toronto Raptors. And this would be a massive swing. While the Raptors have stabilized this season, they really need a lead scorer next to Pascal Siakam. It just makes his life so much easier, and having Beal as the top guy would catapult this team back toward the top of the East. A deal between these two teams would be pretty complicated because of OG Anunoby (poison pill contract) being involved and potential hard caps. Anunoby, Normal Powell, Malachi Flynn, Patrick McCaw and Stanley Johnson work under the cap, plus picks and pick swaps would likely go to the Wizards as well. But the Raptors with Beal would be a massive problem for the East.

Why are they ranked here? Losing to Minnesota wasn’t acceptable. They should have won that game and given themselves another winning week. They drop a couple of spots because of that.

NBA Power Rankings: Red-hot Jazz clear No. 1; Lakers drop after lackluster week; Suns, Blazers making moves – CBSSports.com

This Week: 15
Last Week: 15

The Raptors won their first two games of the week, but ended on a sour note with a loss to the Celtics, then to the Wolves without D’Angelo Russell after Pascal Siakam missed a potential game-tying layup with seven seconds left. Siakam had a tremendous week before the tough luck, averaging 24.8 points on 58 percent 3-point shooting, while Norman Powell added 23.5 points per game on 55 percent 3-point shooting. Toronto finds itself in a jumble of Eastern Conference teams, as the Nos. 4 through 11 seeds are separated by just three games.

Power Rankings, Week 9: Jazz jump Lakers for No. 1 spot; Suns enter Top 5 | NBA.com

This Week: 19
Last Week: 21

Record: 12-15
Pace: 100.4 (13) OffRtg: 113.4 (8) DefRtg: 111.7 (19) NetRtg: +1.8 (9)

The Raptors had a 5-1 stretch through Wednesday in which they scored more than 124 points per 100 possessions, their best stretch of offense in three seasons under Nick Nurse. Pascal Siakam has been able to find his way to the basket, with 71% of his shots coming in the paint and a free throw rate of 39 attempts per 100 shots from the field over his last nine games, up from just 57% and 25 per 100 prior to that. With the Raptors down two to Minnesota in the final seconds on Sunday, Siakam got a point-blank layup … which rolled off the rim.

Of course, the Raptors probably shouldn’t have been trailing the Wolves at that point. But Minnesota was the second straight Toronto opponent to make 10 or more corner 3-pointers, with the Celtics now having done it against the Raptors four times in the last 6 1/2 months. The Raptors can be a feast-or-famine defensive team, forcing a lot of turnovers but yielding a lot of 3-pointers, and the scale has tilted a lot more toward famine than it did last season. Only the Bucks (7.9) have seen a bigger jump in points allowed per 100 possessions than the Raps (7.0).

The Raptors do miss OG Anunoby, who’s been out for the last 10 games, on that end. They’ve allowed just 103.4 points per 100 possessions in 254 minutes with Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, Siakam and Anunoby all on the floor, but 116.4 per 100 in 249 minutes with the other three on the floor without Anunoby. Indications are that he’s close to a return, maybe in time for the Raptors to face the league’s No. 1 offense on Tuesday and Thursday.