Morning Coffee – Fri, Jan 28

Trade primer, debates, scenarios, and wish lists

Raptors Trade Deadline Primer: Rules, assets, the Dragic factor and more – SPortsnet

Proximity to the luxury tax line is a much more important factor right now than next year’s cap sheet. In any trade, the Raptors will want to be salary-neutral, and probably prefer to take back less than they send out. Based on current estimates, the Raptors sit just $18,541 under the tax line. Even if Gary Trent Jr. misses some of his incentives, that’s tight enough that the Raptors have played most of the season with an empty roster spot.

I am aware some fans dislike talk of the tax and think teams should just pay it, if necessary. That’s true in some instances. The Raptors paid deep into the tax in their championship season. This isn’t a contention season, though, and it’s the third season in a row where the team’s revenues have been materially impacted by the pandemic. More importantly, league-wide tax projections for this season are extremely high. The luxury tax paid by tax teams is split between the non-tax paying teams, so getting beneath the tax not only cuts costs, it makes the Raptors eligible for a substantial payout at the end of the year. I estimated cutting Dekker could end up having a “real” impact of about $18 million, even though he was only earning $1.3 million.

It won’t be enough to simply have the trade work in the trade machine. Make sure the Raptors are taking back less money in any deal, or at least have it very close.

(As an aside, any post-deadline buyout with Goran Dragic will only reduce the team’s cap and tax liability by the amount he’s willing to leave on the table. You don’t clear the entire salary off the books in a buyout.)

The Raptors and the impending trade deadline: What Masai Ujiri can do by Feb.10 and beyond – The Athletic

Simple question, on which you can expand: Is there any way Dragić’s tenure doesn’t end with either a) a trade in which the Raptors have to send a first-round pick with him to grease the wheels; b) a buyout, getting the Raptors a little more distance from the luxury tax; or c) him riding out the rest of the year as a “Raptor?” (For what it’s worth, I’m ranking those, in order of likelihood, B, C, A.)

Hollinger: I would definitely put B in first place, with the distinction between C and A lying in how stubborn Masai Ujiri is willing to be at the trade deadline. But I do see some room for a potential D or E. For instance, another team could send picks and an unwanted contract that runs into next season for Dragić, so that Toronto can gain some assets while tucking some relatively harmless money onto next year’s payroll.

If you look right now, the Raps are $31 million from next year’s tax line but won’t have meaningful cap room, and have no key players left to re-sign. Even using their full midlevel exception, biannual exception and money for their first-round pick, that leaves about $10-15 million just hanging out waiting to be used.

Consider, for instance, trading Dragić to Dallas for Trey Burke, Dwight Powell and a protected 2027 first-round pick. That gives the Raps a legit big man under contract for next year, and gives Dallas enough financial runway to re-sign Jalen Brunson and Dorian Finney-Smith this coming summer. Maybe I’m being too optimistic on the draft return and it’s more like two seconds, but my point is there is a way to get draft picks from Dragić’s expiring contract, if they can hold their nose next season on a not-great contract.

NBA trade deadline could be in hands of Simmons, Wall, Dragic | The Star

The Raptors are sure to be central to a large amount of speculation, given the variety of players they might have to offer and the holes at the end of the roster that need filling.

They will not mess with the core group, it is believed, because this is a season of growth and building and to pause that makes little sense in the long-term.

But Dragić’s expiring contract worth about $19.5 million will surely be dangled if general manager Bobby Webster and vice-chairman Masai Ujiri want to take on salary past this year, they certainly have the financial wiggle room to do that.

The expiring contract of Chris Boucher might be in play and young guard Malachi Flynn might attract some interest. But to think either of those players will yield much more than some second-round picks is a stretch; moving them will do little to improve the roster in the short term.

The needs are stark, however, and Ujiri and Webster are aware of them. A shooter to come off the bench, maybe a veteran big man to act as a third centre and wing depth are always welcome.

Whether they can, or want to, get anything done without disrupting what they see as a promising, improving core will be the philosophical discussion they will continue to have.

But there might be chances to do something and the next two weeks should present many opportunities for fans to guess might what be real, what might be possible, what might happen.

Just like this time every year.

RAPTORS BLOG: On Trent’s frustration with officiating, Siakam’s dominant month, Banton, Flynn and OG | Toronto Sun

Obviously terrible timing by Gary Trent Jr. to get himself kicked out of the game when he was rolling. You could see it coming a bit if you rewind back to the previous evening. Referees talk to each other, and Trent had disagreed vocally and emphatically a couple of times against Charlotte. There was a staredown, and not the clapping we saw in Chicago, but a demonstration of displeasure to be sure. Trent thinks he’s getting hit. A lot. And he thinks he isn’t getting calls. That’s likely what led to the costly technical.

This isn’t a new thing for the Raptors. Both Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam, in the tradition of Kyle Lowry before them, are often displeased at not getting calls and aren’t afraid to let it be known to the officials.

Trent scored a season-high 32 points in consecutive games. Tied for the second-highest scoring games of his career (44 vs. Cleveland last April).

Of the 11 highest assist games of Siakam’s career, three have come this month, including three of his top four ever. Siakam is averaging north of 6.5 assists per game in January, with a 2:1 assist-turnover ratio, while shooting 41% from three.

Siakam is 19th in assists per game this month, tied with LaMelo Ball and only three non-guards have averaged more, leading MVP candidates Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Domantis Sabonis.

How much can things change during a back-to-back, well, Siakam went from playing like one of the best players in the world to struggling and the Hornets went from the gang that couldn’t shoot straight to laying 158 points on Indiana a night later, hitting 24 three-pointers on 53% accuracy.

A career-high eight games in double figures in a row run for Chris Boucher was snapped when he scored nine against the Bulls.

Dalano Banton needs to be in the rotation. Period. He’s a piece for this team moving forward and needs to play and deserves to be on the floor. Good things happen more often than not when he’s there. (Banton had made one corner three-pointer all season before nailing two early against Charlotte).

Toronto Raptors’ free-throw numbers have to improve | Toronto Sun

Dalano Banton has another opportunity and he’s making the most of it.

Banton, the Etobicoke native, was getting steady bench minutes to begin the year behind Fred VanVleet but when the decision was made to split those minutes between Siakam and Barnes as VanVleet rested, Banton’s role shrank considerably.

But now with VanVleet out the past two games with knee soreness and no indication of a return, Banton and even Malachi Flynn have become integral parts of Nurse’s rotation.

Banton played 24 minutes on Wednesday in a loss to Chicago and 17 minutes Tuesday in a win over Charlotte. Flynn, who was become a mere rumour the past month or so based on how little playing time he was getting, played eight minutes Wednesday and 24 on Tuesday with Banton in some early foul trouble.

And with a packed schedule the next few weeks as the NBA shoehorns in those games that were postponed in December, those minutes should be there even when VanVleet returns, at least for the first while.

“The biggest thing with the current lineup for us is he seems to add just an air of confidence to the offence,” Nurse said of Banton. “There’s some pace buckets, there’s some transition things, there’s some pretty good reads. And I don’t see — I gotta watch the tape closely — but I don’t see any major deficiencies at the other end, in fact probably above average at the other end, too. He gets his hands on some balls with his length, he was really working hard on his matchups and things like that.”

The bottom line with minutes where Nurse is concerned is you have to earn them on the defensive end and Banton is doing that.