It is when the rain reaches its fever pitch, when the pummeling patter of precipitation pounds the present flat, that reveries of the next sunny day are most powerful. We dream of the future when we’re bored in the present, invent new and exciting games if only we could go outside. And by that same token, the Toronto Raptors are caught in a downpour. Against the Brooklyn Nets, the Raptors were missing, depending on your individual preferences for players, perhaps five of the top eight in their rotation. The present may be painful, but there’s much that we can take as a lesson for the future.
For various reasons, both contractual and contextual, the Raptors are probably not going to ask Gary Trent jr. to come off the bench. (Even if perhaps they should.) Though he’s in a cold shooting streak, he is the team’s highest-volume catch-and-shoot 3-point shooter, and the only players attempting reasonable volume who are more accurate than he on such shots are Fred VanVleet and…Scottie Barnes. Toronto’s other starters are entrenched, as VanVleet, Barnes, O.G. Anunoby, and Pascal Siakam especially are the stars upon whom the weight of the team’s success will lie most heavily.
So the starters are likely not, barring unforeseen and extreme variance of play, up for debate. But the bench rotation very much is. And once the team is finally healthy, it will look dramatically different from the last time the Raptors were whole.
The Raptors were 5-4 after the game when Siakam went down with injury, though they sported one of the best net ratings in the NBA. They looked good, even if their bench at time lacked consistency. But to that point, there were various constants in the rotation that have since disappeared. Let’s look at how, in an individual half of basketball, the Raptors were organizing their rotations, versus how they might be going forward.
A few corralaries, first:
- One of VanVleet, Barnes, and Siakam needs to be on the floor at all times. They’re the three best offensive creators for teammates, and even though Anunoby can initiate and create looks for everyone else, there’s not even remotely enough scoring around Anunoby without any of those three to flank him.
- VanVleet has mostly not been elite at creating offense for the Raptors without Barnes or Siakam on the floor. The offensive rating there is far below that of Barnes or Siakam alone, as well as any combination of the three. The Raptors are betting that’s biased due to VanVleet’s rash of injuries and illnesses to start the season. He hasn’t always looked like himself, but when he has — such as in Toronto’s pair of games against the Chicago Bulls — he’s been more than capable of holding up Toronto’s offense due to his presence alone.
- Barnes and Dalano Banton are passable spot-up shooters, until they prove otherwise. They’re aren’t enough shooting on their own to support entire lineups, and they aren’t going to be ideal finishers from behind the arc. But both have been solid enough (more than solid, in the case of Barnes) to be treated as more than non-shooters in lineup creation.
- With Siakam on the floor, the Raptors can win by playing the efficiency game, creating great shots and forcing opponents into tough ones. When Siakam sits, the Raptors need to win by “cheating” the game, forcing turnovers and crashing the offensive glass so as to get extra possessions. That boosts the value of players like Chris Boucher and Christian Koloko when Siakam sits and somewhat deflates it when Siakam is playing.
- Khem Birch has been amazing in basically every second he’s been on the floor, but there probably isn’t room for him in the rotation. That isn’t to say he’s been worse than other center options — he hasn’t — but simply that others are younger with longer futures ahead of them with the franchise. (And have more shooting ability, at least theoretically.)
- Precious Achiuwa has been significantly more effective when he’s been the center. The Raptors win his minutes at center and lose them when he’s playing alongside Birch or Koloko, for one point. But his shooting and scoring are maximized when there’s spacing around him. He should never play power forward, at least not alongside Toronto’s current center options (not including Boucher, of course).
Achiuwa and Boucher were the first two bench players to enter the game, usually joining the team midway through the first quarter. Barring unforeseen circumstances, they usually entered the game for Trent and Barnes (although VanVleet often was the early sub as well). The logic there is clear; of all of the possible duos of Toronto’s starting group, Siakam and Anunoby have the best net rating together at an impressive +10.9. Anunoby has been terrific on the ball for much of the season, but as a second-side driver he’s been an elite tertiary weapon in the league. Gluing Anunoby’s minutes to Siakam for stretches of the game would boost Anunoby’s efficiency and mean he has more mismatches to attack in more dynamic situations.
Furthermore, Siakam and Achiuwa (+20.7) and Siakam and Boucher (+26.6) are two of Toronto’s top three duos overall (among those with at least 50 minutes played). (Another benefit of having VanVleet and Barnes go to the bench together is that they remain a pair when they return to the floor, and they’ve showed wonderful chemistry together to this point.)
So Toronto wanted Siakam to stay on the floor when Achiuwa and Boucher entered, and Anunoby of the starters has to this point been the most successful alongside Siakam. That foursome should be thought of as ironclad when Toronto is healthy; that’s what the Raptors want to end the first quarter with. It has only played 36 possessions together due to injury, but it has been laughably dominant in that time.
Who, though, should be the fifth player alongside that group? The Raptors have tried seven different possibilities: Otto Porter jr., Barnes, Trent, Banton, VanVleet, and Malachi Flynn. None have had enough reps to have a worthwhile sample size, but these are Toronto’s winningest minutes; the Raptors have been plastered with all five starters on the court this year. With four starters, the Raptors have been the best team in basketball, and with three they’ve still been a top-10 team. The point of this is not to argue about how many starters Toronto should keep on the floor to end the first quarter but simply to prove that this is the time when Toronto wins basketball games. So maximizing the foursome of Siakam, Anunoby, Achiuwa, and Boucher is important.
Simple shooting gets the job done there. Siakam has been a surefire superstar to start the year, and he needs the ball in his hands. He has enough screening and cutting alongside him already, and he’ll be the point guard when VanVleet sits (and often when he plays), so it likely behooves the Raptors to play Otto Porter jr. with that foursome. Because of injury, Porter has only played nine minutes total alongside Siakam, but he’s been Toronto’s most efficient player on the season, with an effective field goal percentage of 60. It’s crucial to play such players as low-usage finishers alongside the best units, and Porter is no slouch on the defensive side, either. (Thad Young would be an excellent option, but Porter is such a superior shooter, and that to me wins out here. But in any given game Young would certainly be a worthwhile choice.)
Starting the second quarter is another area in which Toronto has historically done plenty of winning. It’s another area where teams usually play lots of bench players. Anunoby and Siakam would likely get some rest after playing the full first quarter, and the three other starters would re-enter the floor. Those three have only played six minutes total alongside Boucher and Achiuwa on the season (again, ugh, injuries), but it’s a fearsome unit with plenty of shooting, creation, and defense. Toronto will often be hard-pressed to win minutes without Siakam, but this group would likely be another positive, this time buying Siakam rest. The VanVleet-Achiuwa pick and roll would be a cog of offense, and allowing Barnes to be a connective piece rather than an initiator would maximize his contributions. VanVleet has been terrific off the ball this season as he’s tested out a new role. He can do that when he’s alongside Siakam to start and finish games. But for long stretches, he’ll need to dominate the ball and keep the chains moving.
To end the second quarter could be where Thad Young comes in. He was out of the rotation to start the season, but he’s been one of Toronto’s best and most consistent players for the past few weeks. He is Toronto’s multiplier, the heady vet who does anything the team needs. He is a spicy passer, a solid screen setter, a creative and effective finisher, and an impressive defender. He makes immediate decisions, with one of the shortest average touch times (1.79 seconds) on the team. He is best alongside Toronto’s best, and he has an exceptional net rating alongside Barnes especially. Stacking cutters alongside passers is a surefire path to victory, and Barnes and Young unlock skills in one another.
Young can win minutes as Toronto’s lone bench player alongside any four starters. Young is the perfect fit with Siakam and Anunoby returning to the game alongside two of Toronto’s other three starters. Young hasn’t had the opportunity to do so, but it’s easy money. If the Raptors want another bench player to get minutes — say Banton, Flynn, Juancho Hernangomez, or Christian Koloko — ending quarters alongside Young and three starters would be an opportunistic spot.
Which brings us to an important point: Toronto does not have enough room in its healthy rotation for all the bench players who have to this point performed, often capably. Toronto’s rotation was loose to start the season. Koloko averaged 15.9 minutes per game (largely at the expense of Young).
Banton has been incredible at times. Flynn has been one of the league’s best 3-point shooters so far, in an admittedly puny sample size. Koloko is leading the team in blocks and is one of the best offensive rebounders, besides. His chemistry with VanVleet especially has been crucial in Toronto surviving minutes on the offensive end.
But Toronto has a clear top nine. VanVleet, Trent, Anunoby, Barnes, Siakam, Porter, Young, Achiuwa, and Boucher are entrenched. They lack the weaknesses of Banton, Flynn, Hernangomez, and Koloko. Banton, for my money, is the 10th man and should be playing every game, even in small doses; but that relies on his jumper remaining threatening. Banton should get run here and there to end quarters, and if he’s playing well he should get up to 12 or 15 minutes. That means Flynn and Koloko will intermingle DNP-CDs with 5-10 minutes from game to game, which certainly is difficult for young players like them. But Toronto needs solidity most of all, and it can’t offer that to everyone. The stability of individuals at the end of the bench can’t be prioritized over that of the team itself.
As long as the team is injured, the Raptors will continue to rely on bench players like Koloko. And that group has been impressive to this point. But the team has been treading water to this point, winning with scheme (maximize possessions) rather than talent. To actually get a winning streak on the go, the rotation will need to shrink in order for Toronto to have the most talent on the floor over a full game.
This gives very rough estimates of playing time:
VanVleet – 36 minutes
Trent – 30 minutes
Anunoby – 36 minutes
Barnes – 36 minutes
Siakam – 36 minutes
Boucher – 24 minutes
Achiuwa – 24 minutes
Young – 12 minutes
Porter – 6 minutes
Consider these in wide ranges (basically, plus or minus six for most players). If Porter, during his first stint, hits a jumper or two and cuts through the defense for a few layups, maybe he stays on the floor. If Trent is missing his jumpers on top of that (or is getting targeted by the opposing offense), maybe Porter closes instead of him, and Porter ends up playing 20 minutes. Young could take minutes from Achiuwa if the latter’s decision-making doesn’t live up to Nick Nurse’s standards in any individual game. The Raptors are flexible and should be able to win games in in-between times, when stars are resting.
But when they were healthy to start the year, they spent too much time treading water. Toronto’s second-most played unit on the season is the starting unit with Koloko playing instead of the injured Siakam. That group has lost its minutes by 15 points per 100 possessions, the sixth-worst mark of any lineup with at least 100 minutes. Koloko does a lot well, but he reveals his hand in the paint and gives up easy dump-off passes for dunks, and he doesn’t do enough well on the offensive end to be anything other than a handicap. He doesn’t defend the pick and roll well. Hernangomez isn’t fast enough or creative enough on either end to fit into Toronto’s schemes when its playing at its best.
Those players have outperformed expectations after Siakam has gone down. Yet the Raptors sit at 9-9 on the season, eighth in the East. Their longest winning streak on the year is two games in a row.
Toronto’s bench is coming into its own, finally delivering on both ends of the floor after multiple seasons of letdowns. Bit players have stepped into bigger roles and performed. But going forward, that success will need to be stoppered in a bottle and saved, captured, and only released during games for short portions. The bench is succeeding, in some ways for the first time since 2019-20. Right now it’s simply being asked to do too much. When the Raptors are finally healthy, it will be time for the bench to do a much more difficult trick: keep the ethos and production in much smaller and more replicable roles.
