I wrote last season about the various anatomies of Toronto Raptors’ wins. And even though the Raptors just endured a long, long time without one, a victory in the Garden in which your superstar drops 52 points sure can jog the memory. That’s what a win looks like. Last season, wins most often looked like possession-hoarding, then lockdown defensive masterpieces, and finally on occasion halfcourt clinics.
This season, Raptors’ wins have looked a little bit different. There’s not quite as much variety, at least not yet. In fact, most of them look much the same: Pascal Siakam hoisting the team on his shoulders like a traveler’s rucksack, eurostepping and spinning and juking across the court, and tossing in enough contested midrangers — over half of his shots originate from the area — to eke the Raptors over the finish line.
More on that from our own Samson Folk, Raptors Republic’s version of Siakam. (A superstar.) But a lot of the wins have plenty in common besides Siakam’s dominance.
Fred VanVleet’s shooting
Even if it’s been missing recently, the Raptors sure do seem to like when VanVleet hits deep bombs. They’re 4-4 on the year now in games in which VanVleet has hit four triples. It’s not a sufficient condition — enough to drive a win on its own — but it’s an important piece of the puzzle.
And VanVleet hit four triples — in 10 attempts — against the Knicks, all of which were special in their own way. He hit: a pullup triple out of the pick and roll in the first quarter, a spicy-footwork stepback out of the two-man game with Siakam, a pullup triple out of the pick and roll in the fourth quarter to put Toronto ahead five, and a catch-and-shoot killer in transition to put Toronto ahead four.
Being totally frank, if VanVleet misses one of those, the Raptors probably don’t win this game. In fact, then this would have been suspiciously similar to the Philadelphia 76ers game, which the Raptors lost due in large part to VanVleet’s missing open triples in fourth quarter and overtime. But he hit his shots, which were of a far more difficult variety than they were in Philly, and so Toronto won.
So much of VanVleet’s shooting ties into Siakam’s prowess in the halfcourt. Siakam is such an unbelievable killer in isolation that teams are forced to guard him with two and sometimes three players. Sometimes more. And the Raptors just don’t have a ton of guys who are elite at converting those advantages into points. O.G. Anunoby has been, by and large. VanVleet is supposed to be the biggest weapon when Siakam creates open shots. He’s gotta hit them, or it blunts Siakam’s edges. Against New York, he hit them.
Defense
Sort of an obvious one, but the Raptors have not been able to win too many shootouts this season. Some teams can just dial up the scoring on any given night; the Raptors don’t have that luxury. And Toronto’s losing streak tied pretty strongly to the defense floundering. They gave up at least 110 in five of their six losses.
The defense doesn’t even need to be that good. The Raptors are actually 11-8 when they hold opponents to field-goal percentages below 50. That’s not even that impressive a defensive mark; the season average for the entire league is just below 47 percent.
The Raptors’ defense was fine against the Knicks, if not fantastic. New York shot 55.3 percent from the floor, but from a process standpoint it was better than that number would indicate. Plenty of the makes were difficult midrange jumper from Julius Randle or floaters from RJ Barrett, and New York’s role players were killers from deep. (It helps when Toronto puts up 18 more shots than New York.)
The Knicks had an effective field goal percentage 12.5 percentage points higher than the Raptors. That’s, uhhh, not great. (They were 0-8 in such games prior to this one.)
So let’s call the defense a push. It did enough, even if it isn’t yet fixed by a long shot. Anunoby being back is the single biggest indicator that the defense is on its way to solving problems rather than creating them. He does so much on that it’s almost not fair. VanVleet’s really turning a corner there, too (in not allowing offenders to turn the corner). When Precious Achiuwa returns to the fold, the Raptors should really have a stew going.
Siakam supernova
Okay, Samson covered this with as much joy and insight as you’d expect. But, just real quick, for fun: The Raptors are now 2-3 in games when Siakam scores more than 30 points. They should, ahh, be better than that. The dude’s gotta get some help right now. Toronto is in many ways wasting one of the best regular seasons it’s ever received.
That’s where VanVleet’s shooting and the team defense comes in. Toronto needs to time these things correctly. It can’t lose a game with VanVleet drilling triple after triple because the defense can’t stop anyone. It can’t waste a Siakam explosion because VanVleet can’t deliver when the ball swings to him. Consistency isn’t in a vacuum; these things need to be consistent together.
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When the defense is good enough, Siakam is dominating inside the arc, and VanVleet is cruising from outside of it, the Raptors can forgo a number of other components. They received 12 points off the bench against New York. Not good, and significantly lower than the bottom mark in the league for bench points.
Scottie Barnes contributed practically nothing, shooting 1-of-10 from the field, and considering his defensive lapses, he was a huge net negative in the game. If he’d been more impactful, it wouldn’t have really been a close game against the Knicks at all.
But the Raptors survived all that and more to snap the losing streak. This game could have turned into a blowout for Toronto in a couple different ways, which is encouraging.
The Raptors’ longest winning streak of the season stands, shockingly, at two. It’s not hard to see how the Raptors can turn their season around. The formula is there: Siakam’s scoring, VanVleet’s shooting, and defense. Any of the three can happen on any given night. But for Toronto to string some wins together, all three need to become regularities.
