The past month has been an exercise in comprehensive criticism of the Toronto Raptors. In no particular order, the issues have been as diverse as:
- A lack of athleticism (and functional size).
- An inability to shoot efficiently and seeming necessity of allowing opponents to shoot efficiently.
- An extended slump for Fred VanVleet.
- An extraordinary inability to find consistency in any single area of basketball.
- The defense falling apart.
- The four most important players all needing the ball in their hands.
- O.G. Anunoby tailing off on the offensive end recently.
- And much more! Fun.
We also, in small part, know what a functional and successful version of these Toronto Raptors look like. There are a lot of problems to fix. But with the trade deadline coming up, who might help fix those problems?
This is part one of an intended multi-part series wherein I’ll look at guards who might help the Raptors.
The first thing I did was run a quick query using a couple of different databases looking for a whooole bunch of components. Without getting into actual percentages, I looked for guards with size, at-least-mediocre assist percentage, solid drive rates, solid drive efficiency, and at least a little bit of athletic burst (measured by first step on the drive). Then I filtered by players who are at least somewhat available (Ja Morant obviously pops up on the list, but the Raptors ain’t trading for Ja Morant) and players who have shot well from distance at some point in their careers. Bonus for shooting well this season! Here’s what we get:
God-Tier additions
- Zach LaVine
- D’Angelo Russell
I have long seen LaVine as the new version of the Kawhi Leonard trade. Yes, there is extraordinary injury history, and the knees are not what they once were. But that’s why he’s (at least theoretically) available. He’s shooting 38.5 percent from deep, right in line with his career averages, including solid efficiency (33.4 percent) on a beefy rate of pull-up triples. He’s shooting 66.5 percent from within three feet. His on/offs are poor, and he’s never been a good defender. I don’t care. The offensive ability solves so many problems that he would immediately launch Toronto into contender status depending on who the Raptors would manage to keep to pair with LaVine.
Russell is quietly having the most efficient scoring season of his career. He’s an extraordinary creator and shooter, and he’s no slouch as a defender, either. He is almost a picture-perfect addition to address Toronto’s woes.
Big risk swings
- Russell Westbrook
So, obviously I skipped the shooting part here. But the driving, the creation, the size: that’s all there in spades. Toronto would need to rejig to make sure the shooting around Westbrook makes sense. But he’s so, so much better than people think he is. He’s winning his minutes with the Los Angeles Lakers and doing a whole lot to make sure that’s the case. He doesn’t completely fit Toronto’s vision. But he checks a lot of boxes for what might solve some problems.
Really solid bets
- Jordan Clarkson
- Malik Monk
- Jaylen Nowell
- Immanuel Quickly
This is the realistic group within which Toronto might be pursuing a player, if you’re an optimist. It’s not entirely clear all of these players are available (particularly Monk and Nowell), but none would be prohibitively expensive. Any of the four would also project to be a long-term, core piece of Toronto’s foundation, rather than simply a rental.
Clarkson is having an outrageous season with the Jazz. He’s remade himself as a playmaker, and he’s creating a high volume of home-run assists, setting up wide-open jumpers and uncontested layups with consistency. He’s shooting just as well off the dribble as he is off the catch, and he’s great at creating his own points inside the arc, too. He’s an elite isolation and pick-and-roll player this season. Clarkson would solve virtually the entire offense on his own. There may be some questions as to whether it’s simply a hot year — and his passing, unlike Russell, hasn’t been at this level long enough to be certain to carry over — but that’s why he’s in this group rather than the god-tier additions. There will be other suitors for Clarkson, and the Jazz may simply decide to keep him. He’s that good. But acquiring Clarkson this trade deadline would be almost as good as the Raptors could do.
Monk is probably not available from Sacramento, and the Raptors should have chased him this offseason. He’s young and athletic, a much better shooter than he’s shown this year, and he’s a solid creator too.
If any NBA team wanted to hunt Nowell, they probably had to do it a few seasons ago. He’s too young and too talented for the Timberwolves to simply give away. But crazier things have happened! He’s having a down year behind the arc after hitting almost 40 percent last year. And he’s so fluid as a scorer that plenty of smart analysts see star potential there. It’s probably not possible for Toronto to trade for Nowell without giving up other core pieces in exchange, but he would be worth the trouble, particularly after a few seasons of seasoning.
What in the world do the New York Knicks think they’re doing with Quickley? Why is he available on the trade market? It makes no sense. The Knicks, according to Marc Stein, are increasingly coming to that conclusion themselves. But if they change their minds, Quickly checks all the boxes. He’s a rapid decision maker, great scorer, and solid creator for teammates. He’s got size, shooting, you name it. He’s having a down year as a pull-up shooter (well, really a down year as a shooter entirely), but there’s a pedigree of success outside of this season. He’s also probably the best defender among this group. If the Knicks ask for one protected first-round pick, you make that trade and hang on for dear life. Most non-lottery first-rounders don’t end up this good.
Fringe solutions
- Alec Burks
- Talen Horton-Tucker
- Ty Jerome
- Matthew Dellavedova
- Cory Joseph
- Jordan Goodwin
- Gabe Vincent
This is the realistic group within which Toronto might be pursuing a player, if you’re a pessimist. There’s some real talent here, don’t get me wrong. But there are relative weaknesses up and down this list. Pick your poison, really. Outside of Vincent and maybe Jerome and maaaaybe Goodwin, there’s not enough shooting here. None would project to be long-term pieces. Maybe they would help in the short term, but the Raptors would certainly need more help than just one of these players.
Then, of course, there are some guys who don’t fit into my spreadsheet but who would obviously make the Raptors significantly better even without great assist rates or other such qualifiers.
- Buddy Hield
- Monte Morris
Hield has quietly been arguably the best non-Steph-Curry shooter in the NBA for a few years now. He’s so ridiculous. He would solve a number of Toronto’s woes on his own. I’m not going to go into huge depth here because I covered what has changed in his game in greater depth for FiveThirtyEight last season. He would be almost the perfect non-star partner to pair with Pascal Siakam to create a scorching offense.
For some reason, I always associated Monte Morris, Jalen Brunson, and Fred VanVleet. I guess they all were contestants for the best bench guards in the league a few seasons ago. It’s cool how much success the three have all found in diverse ways. Morris remains elite on the offensive end, and he’s making a killing on pull-up triples this season. I doubt Washington has plans on parting with its newly-acquired starting point guard, but if that’s untrue, the Raptors could do a whole lot worse.
The Raptors have a lot of issues, but there are a lot of players who could help. I’m sure I missed a few possible targets — and the Raptors only want wings, anyway — but snagging a player or two from this list if the Raptors decide to be buyers at the deadline could go a long way to turning this season around.
