Despite the divide (or chasm) that has developed between fans opinions on Fred VanVleet, there’s no denying that his past couple months of play have been significantly better than his first couple. Coinciding with VanVleet’s resurgence, was a dip from Pascal Siakam. The Raptors offense hasn’t hit a peak this season. Part of that is due to the inconsistent performances across the roster. Part of it is due to the Raptors lack of production at the back up point guard position.
Whether you consider Scottie Barnes, or Pascal Siakam the point guard in staggered lineups – it doesn’t really matter. The Raptors haven’t been getting around the usage question, because even with Barnes & Siakam moving the Raptors through actions, the Raptors haven’t been able to properly fill the roles around them as far as spacing and second-side ball handling goes.
They drafted Malachi Flynn at the back end of the first round in 2020, and he has a year and a bit guaranteed on his contract. They signed Will Barton to a minimum deal off the buyout market. They signed Jeff Dowtin Jr. to a two-way contract at the start of this season. Which one of these guys can give you something in a play-in game, or a playoff series? I think the best player here, is Dowtin Jr.
Does that mean that Dowtin Jr. is a world beater? A no doubt fit on any playoff rotation across the NBA? Not at all. At least not currently. The Raptors have kind of punted on the ‘everyone is 6’9″ thing’ — 11 of their 14 guaranteed contracts when the season opened were between 6’7″ and 6’9″, and now of the 17 players they can put on the floor on any given game, there are 8 between 6’7″ and 6’9″ — in pursuit of better roster balance. That balance has come, largely, in the way of a hulking center – Jakob Poeltl, who has been phenomenal. The Raptors still crave guard play, and all the classic attributes that come with it. That means that are big opportunities in the games where guys are injured — Barnes, Precious Achiuwa, and Gary Trent Jr. have been for a couple games — and small, but still important opportunities when the team is healthy.
Run a pick and roll in a pinch. Lift against the weak-side zone when you’re supposed to, stick corner triples when the ball finds your hands. Pump-and-go when closeouts come, and make the corresponding reads. Defend the opposing guards. The Raptors need these things, and they’ve unfortunately been getting them piecemeal from the aforementioned trio of guards.
Flynn has shot 40-percent on catch-and-shoot looks and has a pretty good idea of how to form up off ball. He also (to my eye) has the most gravity as a shooter among the three. Barton is shooting 41-percent over the course of the season… but he’s 5/25 from downtown as a Raptor. However, he’s the best of the three at surveying the defense in closeout situations and making decisions against it. That’s probably why he’s made the starting lineup 2 games in a row. Dowtin Jr. is probably the best pick n’ roll ball handler of the three, the shooter least likely to draw attention (despite being, in Nick Nurse’s words, an adequate shooter), the most likely to create his own look at the rim, and by far the best point-of-attack defender.
“I can’t really remember a time he’s not played pretty well for us. He’s able to make a bucket, he’s able to, if the shot clocks run down, to get a shot up and score some of those mid-rangers. He’s an adequate three-point shooter. And he knows how to play.”
Nick Nurse on Jeff Dowtin Jr.
The Raptors want low-usage from this spot in the rotation, they want efficiency, and they want defense. Dowtin Jr. is doing the most difficult of the three, in my opinion. Efficient players fall out of rotations all the time because they can’t scale it up or they can’t defend their position, or a million other reasons. If you can stick your man, and you don’t crater the offense, you can find a spot in the league.
Flynn has, historically, gotten looks when there’s diminutive guards on the other side of the floor or when the Raptors need a 3-point injection. He doesn’t dominate every chance at this though, and Nurse & co. have noted that. He’s also had enough performances where opposing teams have hunted his presence on defense to scare the Raptors off of him finding consistent minutes. It’s been tough, and I don’t see Nurse getting over that. Barton doesn’t have much history with the Raptors, but he certainly has a history as a rotation player in the NBA, and the Raptors have continued to make bets on that, and his shooting being meaningful.
Dowtin Jr. can leverage his talent and his athleticism against both of Flynn & Barton’s positives to come out on top, though. Dowtin Jr. does the right things in small pockets of the game, just not all the time.
“You can go at your own pace and score whenever at will. When you go to the NBA you got guys like Fred and O.G. and the ball keeps moving left to right, you gotta be at the right place at the right time and you don’t get that much time to make a basket.” Chris Boucher told me after the game. And that timing, that pace is what has made Dowtin Jr. more muted offensively than he should be. He’s extremely quick, a very good athlete, and can make shots from all over the floor. He just has to be able to work on the other players’ time without completely taking his own creation verve off the table.
So far, Dowtin Jr. has provided a mixed bag, with some record-scratching, hesitation, but also some shot-making pop. Why would you try and drive to the rim with 9 seconds on the clock when you can just boomerang the ball to Siakam, who may very well get a bucket? It’s tough to strike the right balance, and it’s easier to strike it when you have a decent chunk of possessions to feel it out. Dowtin Jr. hasn’t had much lately because of his two-way status (and the amount of games he can play before being converted) clouding the situation. Joe Wieskamp, Barton, those signings made the path to more money and more possessions murkier for Dowtin Jr.
“The guys that make the easiest transition understand that they’re probably in some kind of role. What is their skill that they can do to go up and play a role for an NBA team? Can they guard, right? Can they knock down open threes? Can they run a team? That is what has to translate really for most of them.”
Nick Nurse on making the jump from G-League to NBA
Even with the minutes and the economics against him, I think Dowtin Jr. is the Raptors best shot at doing enough on both sides of the floor to help the team out among their end of bench guards. Maybe they lean harder into the funky, no-guard lineups that have had a smidge of success lately and a lot of success last season. Maybe the end of bench guard problem isn’t a problem this season at all. But, if it is? I’d like to see Dowtin Jr. trying to solve it.
Have a blessed day.
