Much has been made of Fred VanVleet’s place on the Toronto Raptors. He was shrouded in trade rumors, public conversations about his looming free agency (even though he hasn’t declined his option yet), and subjected to more fan criticism than at any other part of his career. His existence has been polarized.
I don’t think either of the extremes reflect the truth of VanVleet’s game, and like with many things you’ll find it in the middle ground, but the thing that isn’t up for debate at all: VanVleet was essential and intrinsic to how the Raptors have operated for the past 3 seasons. Prior to that he was a plus-minus king, a super-sub, a flamethrower who existed in the periphery.
He was better than many people thought this season. He was also quietly, then loudly failing at things that had become staples of his game.
VanVleet and the Raptors ran into a performance problem, rather than a selfishness problem – regarding his play. VanVleet has never, and will never provide heaps of rim pressure or efficiency. He’s working from behind in that regard. His jumpshot is not only the thing that created an avenue for him to make the league, succeed in it, and become very good, but it was also the skill that the Raptors bet the farm on coming into the 2022-23 season.
The Raptors don’t shoot well. They have to be precise in how they stagger shooters, and even more precise in how shooters are utilized while on the floor. VanVleet’s shooting was the thing that would help the Raptors justify having a glut of wings who could charge at the rim, collapse defenses, but ultimately, lacked shooting. This is why the Raptors BLOB plays, their zone busters, and their favorite set actions are all extremely intentional in where they place VanVleet.
Well, VanVleet shot extremely poor relative to his expectations.
21-22 – 120 makes (65 games) on 43-percent.
22-23 – 104 makes (69 games) on 35-percent.
If you want to frame that relative to this year’s catch-and-shoot leaderboard, that’s the difference between Buddy Hield — who had a profound impact on the Pacers half-court offense because of his shooting — and Julius Randle, who is very good, but for other reasons.
Among the Raptors starting lineup, O.G. Anunoby was the only player who finished above league-average from the three point line. And even he was below it (35% prior to March) before he went on a heater to end the season. Hell, even Gary Trent Jr. finished below 37-percent. Nearly everyone on the roster regressed.
VanVleet having the best playmaking season of his career, the best pick and roll season of his career, and the best mid-range shooting season of his career doesn’t matter as much to the Raptors as a whole as it does to his game, basically. Siakam and Barnes are significantly better at providing the rim pressure, isolation scoring, and playmaking on the floor than they are at providing the spacing. A team needs to be able to do many different things to generate a defensive response, and diverse skillsets are welcome.
There’s a reason that prior to the season, VanVleet’s off-ball role was an emphasized talking point. His shooting and spacing would never be invasive, only ever positive. But, he struggled in that department and found a significant amount more success in aspects of the game that were more duplicative of his star and star-ascendant pals on the wing. Even the Raptors 2-man actions between guard and wing, that had been extremely successful in past years, had become more of the “your turn, my turn” variety.
The Raptors lost all of their floor balance when VanVleet’s shooting tripped over itself out of the gate. That same floor balance was exacerbated by injuries to shooters and regression from, again, nearly everyone. VanVleet was injured, though. On the offensive end, VanVleet was a career best in everything except catch and shoot jumpers – and everyone wants VanVleet shooting the catch and shoot looks when he has them, right? It was failure. Of course it was. But, his process was no more imperfect or flawed than it was when the Raptors were a playoff team and he was an All-Star. It was just… missed shots.
This creates a scenario where the Raptors can exceed expectations next season if their players’ percentages return to normal and some hierarchy is imposed in the name of that elusive floor balance. I suspect the front office was expecting that outcome for the back half of the season, creating the reasoning for the Jakob Poeltl trade. It didn’t happen consistently. Perhaps it will in the future.
But, the real question: Whether VanVleet is a part of the roster or not, why would you want to build a team that is so susceptible to these types of failures?
You don’t.
Have a blessed day.
