When Paul George was a rookie, he wasn’t supposed to become the star on his team. That distinction went to Danny Granger, who was in the midst of averaging over 20 points a game for the third season in a row. Team USA leader Kenneth Faried was the future star of the Denver Nuggets in 2015, not Nikola Jokic. Rookie Jimmy Butler was buried behind Luol Deng, then an All-Star, as well as Ronnie Brewer. It’s not always obvious who will become future stars, not even to their own teams.
Precious Achiuwa is buried within the Toronto Raptors’ rotation. Among forwards or centers, he finished fifth in minutes per game, with Chris Boucher, Thad Young, Juancho Hernangomez, and Christian Koloko all averaging fewer minutes than him but certainly stealing some from him at some points in the season. Oh, and the Raptors signed Jaden McDaniels this upcoming season to add to the logjam. It’s outrageously hard for a forward currently on the Raptors to differentiate himself.
Pascal Siakam is the star, the lodestone of the team. Scottie Barnes is the future. O.G. Anunoby is the ideal complementary piece. Jakob Poeltl is the missing piece at center. It will be virtually impossible for Achiuwa to supplant any of those four as long as they are all on the team. But it will be in Toronto’s best interests to at the very least find out what it has in Achiuwa. To this point, he still must be considered an unknown.
For Achiuwa, the defense is a given. He is as switchable as anyone in the league, and even though he’s relatively undersized as a center, his length and strength makes up for it. Though 2022-23 was a relative down year for him defensively (although he was fantastic), he was one of the best rim protectors in the league the year prior for Toronto. He has Defensive Player of the Year potential if he becomes consistent, and if a team’s scheme and rotation prioritizes his defense. At the very least, he’s a huge defensive plus. There’s little to add there; he’s already a defensive monster.
But on the offensive end, Achiuwa has the chance — far from a guarantee, but a chance — to be comparably special.
Achiuwa is already a very effective cutter. He has above average acceleration and deceleration loads among centers or forwards, per Second Spectrum, meaning he’s generally able to get a step on whomever is covering him. And though he’s still not an elite finisher on the catch (more on his finishing in different situations in a moment), he has improved dramatically over his career. He scored 1.25 points per chance on cuts last season, which was below average across the league, but was far, far above what he recorded in any other season of his career. But his frequency as a cutter is indicative of future success, as the play is so high-value that even a poor finisher as a cutter who does it all the time adds huge value to an offense. He is also great at attacking closeous with drives, although he was inefficient in other scenarios.
As a pick-and-roll handler, Achiuwa actually found great success. He did only run 20 last year, which is a meaninglessly small sample size, but the film shows he was impressive at turning the corner against switches. His aggression and commitment generally left defenders flat-footed. He has such explosive athleticism, he can burst past half-committed nail help.
Achiuwa will never become a pick-and-roll big like, say, Jokic. But he could run one a game, sometimes two or three, as curveballs for scores in tight spots or to loosen the defense for the next set. He could initiate against the right matchup or to force the right switch. It will never be a major weapon, but it could be a nifty tool to use on the rare occassion.
Yes, there’s lots that remains lacking in Achiuwa’s offensive package. He can drive into a crowd and turn it over. He misses passing lanes. He can drift through some stretches without being visible and become hypervisible at others, stealing the spotlight from players above him on the hierarchy. His efficiency remains poor because he still hasn’t added efficiency anywhere beyond the rim. All of this could be fixed in time. His pure ability to create advantages in situations when others can’t should earn him a much, much longer rope than other players.
Among forwards or centers, Achiuwa finished in the 73rd percentile on field-goal efficiency on at-rim attempts that came neither on assist opportunities nor offensive rebounds. The leaders in that category are, by and large, the best offensive forwards in the league, including LeBron James, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant, Jaylen Brown, Nikola Jokic, Zion Williamson, Kawhi Leonard, Pascal Siakam, and others. Few beyond that crowd rank above Achiuwa on efficiency on such self-created shots. Translation: He can create for himself like few other bigs. There is real star potential there based on such ability.
And yet Achiuwa finished in the zeroth percentile for at-rim attempts that came neither on assist opportunities nor offensive rebounds. He was not unlocked, allowed to create for himself, drive into crowds, to see what would happen. (He was in the 71st percentile for total such attempts in 2021-22, meaning Achiuwa was given far, far more freedom his first year in Toronto.)
Yet Achiuwa improved dramatically as a finisher between those two seasons. He still has a tendency to smoke layups, particularly against contests. (Who doesn’t?) But he’s improving dramatically. He shot 73.4 percent from within three feet last year, a jump of more than 10 percentage points from the year prior. He leaped from a below-average finisher as a big to an above-average one.
Achiuwa’s finishing improvement was not random. His arm control improved dramatically, as did his body control setting up his finishes. His touch is a work in progress, but is certainly trending in the right direction. He can bruise opponents on backdowns or slip past them with an explosive last step. Such abilities create paths to the rim that few players have.
Players like Antetokounmpo and Siakam began as low-frequency and low-efficiency self-created finishers, and they first improved efficiency before adding reps. That trendline is relatively common among the forwards currently above Achiuwa as self-created finishers. There’s no guarantee that Achiuwa will become a star; he has so, so much to improve in order to follow the paths of players like that. But Toronto should at least give him the opportunity to find out.
Achiuwa needs more self-creation reps. He can’t do that alongside several non-shooting bigs, which is how Toronto projects to play, as teams will pack the paint and dare Achiuwa to drive into crowds. Siakam may be able to conjure points like that, but it’s no way for Achiuwa to test the limits of his abilities. If Achiuwa were able to play alongside, say Gary Trent jr., Gradey Dick, Otto Porter jr., and perhaps Siakam, he would have oodles of space for his violent drives. If he remained aggressive and committal, he would be a potent offensive force in such lineups without any skill improvement.
Finishing improves over time, as long as athleticism remains static. Achiuwa has played 3602 minutes in his career, only 1000 more than Siakam played just last season. If Achiuwa is already an above-average finisher at the rim, if last year is to be believed, then there’s no reason Achiuwa can’t eliminate his gaffes and become more consistent around the rim. If he’s at 73.4 percent now within three feet, the hope would be that number would remain the same as Achiuwa adds more self-creation to his diet.
Achiuwa’s combination of bursting athleticism, strength, and low dribble means he can reach the rim with as much frequency as any non-Siakam on the Raptors. According to Second Spectrum, his 6.1 drives per 100 possessions already ranked first among centers on the Raptors last season (although if you consider Barnes and Siakam centers, then Achiuwa was behind them). His blowby percentage was the highest on the team. Few bigs can stick with him when he puts the ball on the ground.
Achiuwa also saw his drive frequency jump when the team played three or even four forwards at the same time, as opposed to one or two. He may project to be at his best as a center or power forward, but he can still add value as a small forward alongside the right teammates. That he was able to toggle his role according to position, attacking the rim from the outside even when alongside a bevy of non-shooting bigs, is a good thing.
But as with all of Toronto’s forwards and bigs, Achiuwa’s shooting is a swing factor. His free-throw shooting improved to 70 percent this past season, and he has had stretches as a knockdown 3-point shooter. There are indicators he could at least be league average from deep, and when that comes at the center position, it’s a huge offensive weapon. Perhaps one reason why Achiuwa was able to attempt so many more self-created shots in 2021-22 is because he went on a hot streak from deep, meaning opponents had to close out to touch, and he was able to go to work with space on the court. If he can shoot, he can play center and space the floor for others, hit shots if defenders ignore him, and create for himself if the defense is in rotation. When Achiuwa was that player to end 2021-22, Toronto went on a huge winning streak despite Fred VanVleet entering a slump.
There’s not really another player like that across the league.
This is all theoretical, of course. But the theory is so powerful, so blinding, that it’s worth investing in the science to see if it will come true. At his best — and, look, nobody ever becomes their best self. So this next phrase is entirely in the realm of fiction — Achiuwa is the best defender in the league and an elite advantage creator from a position where that rarely happens. That’s such an enviable player type, even if Achiuwa only achieves, say, 60 percent of that outcome, that it’s worth investing resources to uncover. Achiuwa at his peak self, 100th percentile outcome, is probably better than any other 100th percentile outcome on the Raptors outside of Barnes and perhaps Anunoby. That player would be an ideal fit next to anyone — current Siakam, or future Barnes as a hub, or whomever Toronto has down the road as a leader. Bigs who can create for themselves, feast on defense, and space the floor are ideal complements no matter who else is on the team.
And investing in such a player doesn’t even require a draft pick at this point. Simply playing time and touches. I understand why he’s had a relative lack of both so far in his career, but Toronto is a team with much lower expectations in its upcoming season than it has had in over a decade. Context has shifted to a much more favourable position in terms of coaches and management tolerating Achiuwa gaffes.
Look: I’ve written this piece before. But those glimpses have been midseason pauses, a breath above the water line before diving back down into the next game, the next closeout, the next road trip. There’s no space in the regular season, for my own analysis or for Toronto’s development of an individual player, for long-term dreaming. But oh baby is that ever what the offseason is for.
And if you fly above the water line like a pelican, soar and orbit before finally looking down, you can see Precious Achiuwa in all his jagged glory. It remains possible that Achiuwa becomes a star. Perhaps one multiverse of a thousand sees such a result, but most players have no such outcomes possible for them.
Having players who are supposed to become stars end up as just that is very valuable. That’s how good teams are born. But having players who aren’t supposed to become stars in addition is how great teams come about. The Raptors don’t have a bountiful cupboard of potential stars at the moment. But Achiuwa is one such wild card, and it’s arguable that his individual development is perhaps the largest internal upside swing the Raptors could find.
Somehow, some way, the Raptors need to empower Achiuwa. Last year, Nick Nurse spent more time saying he needed to meet expectations than praising him for standout performances. Embracing Achiuwa means embracing chaos, embracing furrowed brows and headaches. The 2023-24 Raptors project to suffer through headaches anyway. So they may as well make them worth it and unleash Achiuwa to see if he can become a diamond in the coal mine.
