A couple months ago, when Jordan Nwora had only played about an hour of basketball with the Raptors, I wrote about the potential of change for the Raptors regarding the Gunner role. Now that we have a much larger sample size for all of Gary Trent Jr., Gradey Dick, and Nwora, it merits another look at a pivotal role for a team that wants to build around a star on the wing and plenty of front court initiation.
The best Dick games are good enough that they’d make one believe that he could hold down 30+ backcourt minutes every night. They’re chalk-full of heady cutting, timely rebounding, big time triples, and soft finishes at the bucket. However, they’re not yet as consistent as anyone would like them to be. We’ve seen him spring for 23 points and a career high, we’ve seen him hit the teens regularly, but he has some really cold nights and there always has to be considerations of the defensive side of the floor. Those considerations don’t come into play if you choose to play one of the games that require no deposit, but let’s get back to basketball.
It’s easy to see a good Nwora game and wonder about if he can reach consistency. He’s a big guard, he can reliably handle the ball, he can shoot the ball (although, it can be pretty inconsistent), and he can finish at the rim. For a Raptors team that isn’t sure how they’re going to deal with Trent Jr.’s contract situation this summer, Nwora has the size and skillset to provide a lot of what the Raptors require from a rotational backcourt player — we see it some games — but it’s been inconsistent.
Does Nwora provide enough to be a no-brainer part of the Raptors future?
The quick stuff? He’s shooting 68% at the rim (good), 48% in the short mid-range (good), virtually no volume from the long mid-range (good), and 32% from three as a Raptor. Since almost 50% of his shots come from downtown, he’s prone to some feast or famine type games depending on the variance of the three point shot, naturally, but the transition finishing typically keeps him afloat. All in all, the Raptors have been getting around average to slightly above-average volume from him, which is good.
Maybe more importantly, Nwora has been scoring in the 85th-percentile out of the pick n’ roll (on a small sample), and is, kind of miraculously, the NBA’s 100th-percentile cutter. These things won’t stick around at those high-level numbers over time, but they’re quick nods to his capability to handle in popular actions and to finish at the cup. Good things! Nwora, who is closing in on 26 years old, probably won’t radically change how the Raptors approach guard or swingman positions. However, it’s important for them to score off of some of the high pick n’ rolls that they run in the quieter parts of games, and they will always need willing cutters who can finish – especially as they lean farther into working out of delay actions, split actions, chicago out of the corner, and more high-post initiation.
A couple negatives, though:
- It could quickly become a situation where the Raptors don’t necessarily need Nwora’s ball handling, need him to transition to more of a C&S operator, and Nwora’s one season of above 34-percent C&S 3-point shooting might not be the best indicator.
- The defense. Always the defense.
Nwora has always struggled to stay in front of ball handlers, and his attention to detail off-ball can wax and wane. The Raptors mix & match a lot of coverages and it isn’t uncommon for Nwora to ICE when that isn’t the call, to get lost trying to catch up on the backside of a hedge – all the regular stuff. Darko Rajakovic had mentioned that they’re doing their best to work with Nwora to turn him into a two-way player (both sides of the court, not G-League + NBA), and some of the defensive playmaking has been better as a Raptor, but it’s still far from his calling card.
With consideration for the potential of his role changing and shrinking over time, Nwora is shooting 6-25 combined in all the games he’s played less than 15 minutes in. The flow, and the expectation of possessions is pretty highly correlated with better shooting for him (65-129 FG’s in games playing over 15 minutes). Some of that, of course, is the hot hand stuff, where if he’s making shots early, he’s going to play longer. Small sample, all of it, but some players do have a harder time making an impact in smaller minutes and small roles.
As far as the on/offs, Nwora has yet to have a season where he’s above the 12th-percentile. His teams have always been better with him off the floor, and of course there’s a bunch of factors that go into that; but it’s better to see positive players and go searching for the reasons why it’s working, as opposed to looking for the negatives.
I wondered if, with the opportunity afforded to him on the Raptors, Nwora would seize a super consistent role and make the Raptors look at him as a super affordable option for the future. So far, we’ve seen enough to continue asking the question about how he fits in with the Raptors, but whether or not he could actually step into a larger role heading into the future is still up in the air.
Truthfully, with the film and numbers we have on Trent Jr., and Nwora? This likely just comes down to a numbers game. No one has blown anything out of the water. We’ll see this summer.
Have a blessed day.
