After a couple years where Gradey Dick had a lot of leeway to try things, to fail, and to do so without much punishment – we’ve hit season 3, where the Raptors will get to analyze their young guard in the heart of a (hopefully) winning season. Mistakes will hurt more. Getting picked on will hurt more. And maybe most importantly, dynamic offense will matter more than ever. It’s time to win in Toronto, and Dick has to figure his way into that. Not only because the team needs him, but also because his contract situation is coming into the field of view for the first time in his career.
So, let’s forecast how the Raptors lottery pick can help his team while taking a big step in his career.
We’ll get to the defense, which has to improve, but let’s start with the other side of the floor where Dick can be a gamechanger. 2024-25 was a tale of two seasons for Dick. The first? A rapid sprint amidst an injured roster where he was elevated to a top-2 offensive option. The second? A slog. A trudge toward the finish line that included an injury that held him out for the last 20 games of the season.
The first half of Dick’s season, 28 games:
32mpg / 17.8pts / 3.5rbs / 2.1asts / 1stl / 42/35/89 splits
The second half, 26 games:
26.7mpg / 10.8pts / 3.7rbs / 1.5asts / .7stls / 39/34/80 splits
Even though we’ve seen it before, a return of form to the start of his second season would be reason for celebration. What made Dick potent last season was his mix of shot-making talent, motion, gravity, and the fact that when it was time to let shots fly he was neither diffident or shy. On the whole, his shot-making numbers should underwhelm most people who look at them. A man described as a “shooter” hitting 35-percent? Doesn’t really pass the sniff test. If you’ll allow me to try and sway you, though? Some numbers from last season:
38-percent C&S 3pt shooting / 31-percent guarded / 46-percent unguarded
42-percent spot up 3pt shooting / 84th %ile out of spot ups (including attacking closeouts and drives)
From the end of season writeup:
“What do these numbers mean, mostly? That Dick was quite capable, elite even, at hitting the easier shots created for him. However, he receives a lot of defensive attention, extremely physical off-ball boxing matches, and the Raptors were a top-5 team in volume of off-ball plays, who asked him to take very difficult shots, very often.
Difficulty is part of the equation with Dick, though. The Raptors drafted him expecting him to be a tremendous movement shooter and multi-purpose offensive tool. He is the exact type of player who is supposed to eventually beat difficult coverages and provide heaps of impact through his ability to reshape the defense and keep offenses afloat when they’re struggling to create easy looks. Especially when you consider that he isn’t expected to provide positive impact on defense (although that would be a very welcome surprise).”
The funny thing is, when I tracked all of Dick’s movement threes to finish his rookie season? He was dynamite – and my declaration of his prowess, a bit premature. His resume as a shooter is very much a mixed bag at this point. There’s no better example of this than his corner shooting which dropped from 48-percent to 32-percent from year 1 to year 2. The hope is that he’s good at… everything. However, it’s probably more likely that he solidifies the easier stuff first – and the Raptors should be able to provide him with more of it this upcoming season.
Brandon Ingram has been the fulcrum of offenses before, and offenses that relied heavily on their tertiary shooters, so it shouldn’t be much of a stretch to expect him to comfortably create more open shots for those on the Raptors who can shoot. For as long as Dick is in the NBA he won’t be left alone purposely, but Ingram should be able to generate more rotations from the jump, and the Raptors should have more offensive potency on the whole – meaning there should be more room for Dick to let it fly. Which, if last years stats track at all, should mean good, efficient scoring. Now, if Dick also gets the burner out for movement shooting — which is in play — Baby, we got a stew goin’.
There’s a whole other toolbox available to Dick, if he finds the key to it (his shooting). There’s a reason both Bobby Webster and Darko Rajakovic have raved about his passing and ability to read the floor (I thought as much in my pre-draft analysis), and he can definitely play the quick processing style the Raptors like. He’s also a very aggressive driver of the basketball, with great touch, and the hope would be that he can allow that to shine a bit more with a bit more progress on the NBA readiness (for lack of a better term) of his body. It’s all secondary, of course, but Dick’s secondary/tertiary skills are on pace to pop if he can shoot the leather off the ball.
He has a fairly straightforward route to offensive impact. The defense is a whole other thing.
The Raptors have two major ideals on defense.
- Provide pressure.
- Shrink the floor.
The Raptors guards shrink the floor by providing ball pressure, and their wings/forwards/bigs do so by providing size and length to disrupt passing lanes and show size.
Dick is clearly not capable of enacting good ball pressure defense (but not for lack of trying), and he’s not quite big enough or sturdy enough to meet the other standard. Ingram serves as a decent example. He is thin for his size, although not terribly so, and isn’t known for his defensive will, but his size and length is of such significance for who he’ll probably be guarding that the Raptors will be able to meaningfully place him on the court and might be able to expect some good things out of it.
The saving grace for Dick is that he is an extremely willing defender, and he has good size for his position. The Raptors, if they want to maximize his time on the floor — rather than run him through the gamut like last season — will have to hide him. When hidden, he should be expected to make the correct rotations and to be able to make plays in passing lanes to bolster his and the teams defensive playmaking. There is a real route to that working out, in part. It would be a longshot for him to positively affect the defense, but he should be trying not to tank the team defense, if not hang in. If he can’t? Then everything can get hairy pretty quickly. However, I’m forecasting a great season, and he can have one of those while playing defense that whelms.
A great season for Dick would be hugely beneficial to these Raptors. His dynamism on offense really isn’t replicated elsewhere on the roster and his upside is recognized around the league, but especially within the Raptors front office. Here’s to hoping!
Have a blessed day.
