It was not at all obvious, coming into the season, that the Toronto Raptors would have such success before the All-Star game. Factor in the multitude of injuries, and Toronto’s status as the clear second-best team in the East, with a 36-14 record, is downright unlikely.
There have been a variety of different surprises. Pascal Siakam has grown into his game to the extent that he is now an All-Star starter. Terence Davis, to remind everyone for the millionth but certainly not the last time, is an undrafted rookie, and he has the highest net rating on the team among rotation players. OG Anunoby, after an injury-plagued sophomore year, has played in 49 of the team’s 50 games and is displaying a burgeoning driving game. Norman Powell has developed into one of the team’s most consistent scorers. Fred VanVleet has grown as a point guard and will likely earn a massive payday in the offseason. All of these developments were certainly possible in isolation, but them all occurring together constitutes a best-case scenario with the relative odds and fortune of the Toronto Raptors drawing the winning lottery ticket.
Will Toronto draw the equivalent of another winning ticket over the remainder of the regular season? At this point, it would be foolish to rule out even the most optimistic of scenarios. Let’s delve into three possibilities, offering initially best-case results while toning them down with more realistic outcomes at the end of each argument.
The Toronto Raptors will win the East
Have you ever seen the movie Mad Max: Fury Road? You know how it starts with Max being chased by a bunch of face-painted lunatics later revealed to be War Boys. Well, the movie starts pretty hot. I forgot to breathe for a while. It is an intense beginning. “The Raptors winning the East” is sort of this column’s version of the opening of Mad Max.
The thing is, it’s not entirely impossible. The Raptors are seven games behind the Bucks, which is not an insurmountable figure over 30-odd games. Plus, the Raptors have had close to the worst injury luck in the league so far this season, with the most wins lost to injury of any team this season, while the Bucks have lost the fifth-fewest man-games to injury. The Raptors are currently on an 11-game winning streak, which has coincided with Pascal Siakam returning to health.
In fact, the healthy Raptors could possibly give the Bucks a run for their money in the regular season. When Siakam is in the lineup, Toronto has gone 30-9 this year, good for a winning percentage of 76.9 percent. That would equate to approximately 25 wins over the remainder of the season, meaning Toronto could finish with around 61 wins. That would be a huge number. That’s a number that usually wins a conference. Maybe Milwaukee tails off at some point?
Still, Milwaukee would have to go 18-12 over its last 30 games to tie Toronto’s projected 61 wins, which of course is a rough projection assuming Siakam stays healthy. For Milwaukee, that’s probably not happening. It’s probably more likely they reach 70 than end up with 61.
Realistic outcome: The Raptors finish second in the East. Yeah, obviously, that’s where they are now. But finishing second in the East could be better, anyway. It’s increasingly likely that the Philadelphia 76ers finish in the four-five bracket, giving whomever finishes first a more talented playoff opponent in the second round, if not a more cohesive one. Plus, we all know the Raptors don’t need home-court advantage to lay waste to the Bucks. The second seed is nothing to scoff at.
Members of the Toronto Raptors win at least two end-of-year awards
Yeah, the other thing about Mad Mad: Fury Road? It only gets crazier after the opening sequence.
The Raptors, as a franchise, have only ever won seven end-of-year awards in 24 years. The winners have been Bryan Colangelo (Executive of the Year, 2006-2007), Sam Mitchell (Coach of the Year, 2006-07), Dwane Casey (Coach of the Year, 2017-18), Lou Williams (Sixth Man of the Year, 2014-15), Damon Stoudamire (Rookie of the Year, 1995-96), Vince Carter (Rookie of the Year, 1998-99), and Pascal Siakam (Most Improved Player, 2018-19).
Toronto could win multiple end-of-year awards this year. One is a fairly good bet. Nick Nurse has to be the current leader for Coach of the Year, especially as Toronto has a good chance at finishing with a better record this year, as defending champions, then they did last year with Kawhi Leonard on the team.
There are other possible candidates. Fred VanVleet and OG Anunoby are fairly good entries for Defensive Player of the Year, though neither is as visible a difference-maker as Joel Embiid, Giannis Antetokounmpo, or Rudy Gobert. Norman Powell, if he could stay healthy, would be a legitimate Sixth Man of the Year nominee, especially if his efficiency and scoring brilliance continued for the remainder of the season. Heck, Siakam should be a down-ballot candidate for MVP, even though that award probably belongs to Antetokounmpo alone at this point.
But here’s the outlandish end-of-year award Toronto could snag: Executive of the Year. Colangelo won it before for Toronto, yet Masai Ujiri hasn’t. Ujiri did win the award in 2012-13 with the Denver Nuggets, but his work with Toronto has been far more impressive. Award winners don’t always climb to the top of the executive standings with splashy moves. Jon Horst of the Bucks won last year because his team improved massively, though most of it was internal. His biggest acquisition could possibly have been Nikola Mirotic for an unlimited number of second-round picks at the deadline. Ujiri has massively outperformed the bar set by Horst. Yes, he lost Leonard and Danny Green. But he replaced them, as far as rotation players go, with Rondae Hollis-Jefferson on a cheapo deal, undrafted rookies in Terence Davis and Oshae Brissett, and a whole whack of internal improvement. And now the Raptors are a better regular season team. That has to win Ujiri something. Or you could call it a legacy award for his work in Toronto, which has been some of the best managerial work in the history of the game.
Realistic outcome: Yeah, the Raptor get Coach of the Year and nothing else. Ujiri doesn’t have to win an award. You know who has won three championships and two MVPs and zero Finals MVPs? At least Ujiri will have company in his successful and (somewhat) award-free life.
The Raptors keep Kyle Lowry’s minutes per game below 35 on the year
First, some quick math. Lowry is at 36.6 minutes per game at the moment, which is good for third in the league. For a 33-year-old who plays a physically demanding style of ball, that’s too much if Toronto wants him fresh and spitting hot fire in the playoffs. Lowry has played 1427 minutes over 39 games. Let’s say Lowry plays in all 32 remaining games, giving him a total of 71 games played. He’d need to average 33.1 minutes per game over the remainder of the season for his per game average to dip to 35. Is that possible?
If Toronto keeps winning, it is. Over Toronto’s 11-game winning streak, Lowry has averaged 31.8 minutes per game. 33.1 is doable. Sitting in garbage time does wonders. But Toronto hasn’t just been blowing teams out and sitting Lowry at the end of games; there have been substantive substitution alterations. For one, Nurse has been happy to run Fred VanVleet with the bench unit instead of the traditional Lowry plus bench. There have been all sorts of versions of that VanVleet and bench group, but they have almost all been successful. VanVleet, Davis (or McCaw), Powell, Hollis-Jefferson, and Ibaka have been terrific. So too has the four-guard fivesome of VanVleet, Davis, McCaw, Powell, Boucher. Those lineups are impossible, of course, while Powell is out with injury, but Toronto can simulate them. As long as VanVleet is thriving with the bench, Lowry’s minutes can stay low.
Similarly, as long as Siakam is playing like an MVP and dominating, the Raptors don’t need to play Lowry 40 minutes to be competitive in every game. There was a stretch when Siakam, Powell, VanVleet, and Gasol were all injured. Lowry averaged 40.1 minutes per game over that stretch. The Raps did need Lowry to play almost every minute during that period. But as long as Toronto stays relatively healthy, Lowry can easily play 33 minutes a game and keep his season total at or below 35.
Realistic outcome: Now that I think about this one, 35 minutes per game is a realistic outcome. Nick Nurse knows that Toronto will only win in the playoffs if Lowry is fresh and bouncy. He has spoken a lot recently about trying to keep Lowry’s minutes down. Now that Toronto is healthy and in the second seed in the East, Nurse can limit Lowry’s run as much as possible. The best-case scenario, here, is the realistic outcome. Fun!
