It’s around midnight and I have three options right now: go to bed, play FIFA, or write this piece. I chose this because I know as soon as I go to bed my 8-month old will wake up, and I’m a bit scarred by FIFA since I got relegated down to Division 9. I won’t be able to handle it if I go down to Division 10 because that would be like me being the Sixers of FIFA.
I’m going to talk about rebounding, which is really bugging me, and I realize it’s an odd time to talk about it since the euphoria surrounding Bruno is still in the air. Right now we’re fourth worst in the league at collecting defensive rebounds, where we gather only 72% of them. Normally, this would be an indicator of a poor record except that this year, the Raptors have been phenomenal at taking care of the ball, and have had insanely optimal fourth quarters to make up for whatever was going wrong prior to that. They remain the second-best team in the league in terms of turnover efficiency and offense, while coming in seventh in defense.
The question is whether they can sustain this sort of play. They have played the second-easiest schedule in the league, with most of their games at home where you’re more likely to make late comebacks, and also get the whistle (5th highest opponent fouls). The schedule will worsen and as the games get more tense. Turnovers will increase on account of being on the road and averages playing out, meaning that the value of possessions will rise, making defensive rebounding a critical factor.
There’s a few things that the Raptors are doing wrong right now, which they need to fix.
They’re not protecting the weak side after missed shots. Hansbrough and Patterson, who are getting a lot of run, are not boxing out consistently or playing intelligent positional basketball. For Patterson, he has an issue where he mistimes his jump on rebounds at least twice a game, and if he’s defending a perimeter-oriented player, his “switch time” between defending and boxing out is too slow, thus he tends to concede position and you find him flailing at a rebound more than fundamentally securing it.
Hansbrough is an interesting case because he’s a very hard worker who makes rebounding a priority, but I find that he’s being put into help situations too frequently, where he has to leave his comfort zone and come out a step or two to defend, which takes him away from rebounding areas. This is new for him this year because he’s always had a very limited role where he’s been asked to bang in there for a few minutes and come out. With Casey playing him in more creative lineups, he’s finding himself defending guys he hasn’t had to defend before, and he’s still making the adjustment.
These are also two guys who haven’t played much together before, and are still getting used to feeling each other out.
Jonas Valanciunas, for my money, has been just fine. He does, at times, try to use his length and reach to get rebounds more than position, and when he loses those battles he comes out looking bad. If the Raptors want to improve his rebounding, they need to increase his offensive engagement. He’s too talented of a guy to throw out there as a pure rebounder alone, and limit his offense to put-backs and the occasional pick ‘n roll. Some guys have their offense fuelled by their defense, Jonas is the other way around.
Then we have Amir Johnson, who is clearly not at 100%, yet continues to chug along. Notice just how often Johnson is flat on his heels when he’s fighting for rebounds, and he also doesn’t have that second or third lift when fighting for a board in traffic this year, and it’s entirely down to health. It’s impressive that he continues to provide defensive cover in so many situations despite his physical struggles.
Chuck Hayes is a solid one-on-one situational defender, but he’s more of a guy that prevents his man from getting the rebound than actually getting the rebound, he needs to be playing with another big who actually does the cleanup while Hayes boxes the opposition’s best rebounder. The Raptors should look to use him in combination with Valanciunas to see how that lineup fares, especially if they go a little big with Patterson at the three. That might be a combination which could work, at least defensively.
As we discussed on the podcast all summer, the backup center was and remains an issue. Greg Steimsma may as well just change his number to 6 and his last name to fouls, which would make his jersey more appropriate. I’m not sure what his value is and that’s not a slight at him, I’m actually not sure what lineup or combination he can be effective in, but given that Casey hasn’t given him the light of day, I imagine he’s not showing much in practice.
The Raptors are riding high at 10-2, and the record masks a critical area of basketball where they’ve struggled. Dallas and Chicago, two other good teams struggling in that category, have been able to overcome this as well. Dallas, through their high octane offense, and Chicago due to very consistent play in every other relevant category. Those two teams have had much more difficult schedules, and have been able to test their approach against some quality opposition. The Raptors are about to do the same. Let’s hope they pass.
Statistical information provided by Basketball Reference
Photo Credit: The Canadian Press, Frank Gunn
