RR Mailbag: Starting lineup, defensive woes, trade targets

Terrence Ross or James Johnson? Why can’t the Raptors play defense? Should the Raptors make a trade?

Without a definitive topic to write about, I turned to Twitter and the Raptors Republic Forums to solicit questions for a mailbag. In the future, if there’s anything you would like me to write about, hit me up at william (at) raptorsrepublic.com or @william_lou. A huge thank you goes out to anyone who submitted questions.

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@raptorsrepublic with the return of DeRozan …should James Johnson maybe stay in the starting lineup and T-Ross be moved to the bench?
— Richard Pietro (@richardpietro) January 5, 2015

Before I answer this question, I just want to speak my peace on Terrence Ross. He was given the perfect opportunity to step up in DeMar DeRozan’s absence and he failed to step up. That’s not to say that he sucked — which is untrue — but he produced just as he always did, save for a slight uptick in rebounding. As I mentioned in this week’s Raptors Weekly podcast, Ross is a fine player if we accept his limitations, specifically with regards to driving to the hoop. After all, over the span of 2.5 seasons, it’s become clear that Ross doesn’t have a strong desire to attack the basket.

However, it’s hard to accept Ross’s limitations because he will flash moments of great potential. The 51-point game comes to mind, but as J.M. Poulard pointed out last week, Ross has all the makings of a star talent. His jumpshot is pure and he has seemingly boundless athleticism. But I think we get too caught up on fixating on the frustrating chasm between potential and production. Ross is far from perfect, but he can stretch the floor and he’s probably the Raptors’ quickest perimeter defender. Those are important skills that the Raptors — and the starting lineup as a whole — desperately needs.

Swapping out James Johnson for Ross would probably result in an upgrade defensively, but it would kill spacing in the starting lineup, as Lowry would become the only viable 3-point threat on the floor. Moreover, the Raptors have specific sets designed for Ross (eg: double-pin down) which simply cannot be run with Johnson.

Ross also seems to function best when decisions are made for him in a structured system, as the starting lineup provides. He needs to be set up to score (unless you particularly enjoy his pull-up midrange shots) and the second unit is like the basketball equivalent of the Wild West. A free-flowing system suits James Johnson well, as he’s a much more intuitive player who can pick up scraps on broken plays — think timely cuts to the basket — than Ross.

@raptorsrepublic what trade options should the Raptors explore — Jordan Tomiyama (@Jttom9) January 5, 2015

The Raptors are in a nice position to make a trade. They have a surplus of 1st-round picks and a few expiring contracts to match salaries (notably Hayes and Fields). The only real concern with respect to flexibility is the luxury tax.

In my opinion, the Raptors should target a spare big and perhaps a spot-up wing who can reliably guard small forwards. That’s perhaps a lot to ask for, but with a wide gap between the have’s and have not’s this season, a number of players on wayward teams should be available.

Two guys I’d target are Ed Davis and Jonas Jerebko. They’re far from sexy names, but they fit well with the Raptors’ immediate needs. Davis is familiar to fans as a decent shot-blocker who can play in the pick-and-roll, which makes him a perfect complement to Greivis Vasquez’s game. Offering up Tyler Hansbrough and a 2nd-rounder might be enough to entice the Lakers. Jerebko, on the other hand, is a heady wing defender who can knock down wide open treys. He’s big enough to guard both forward positions and he’d be a great option to have for 10-15 minutes per game. A straight-up swap of Landry Fields and a 2nd-rounder makes sense for both teams involved.

However, I would be leery of making a big trade mid-season for two reasons. One, the Raptors are 24-10. They’re doing great. There’s no need to make a huge change to something that is clearly working well. Two, a play for a free agent in 2015 would be the Raptors’ best bet because it would only cost cap space instead of squandering prospect capital.

@raptorsrepublic why is our defence so poor? Related: what does Jonas need to do to improve his defence (110 defrtg) — Ryan Ellis (@Icarusdescends) January 5, 2015

Blake is writing about the Raptors’ defensive woes tomorrow, so check back on Wednesday for a far more detailed diagnosis of what ails Toronto.

As Ryan Ellis notes, the Raptors’ defense is poor, really poor. In the 18 games since DeRozan’s injury, the Raptors’ defensive rating clocks in at 108.6, which ranks as the third-worst defense in the league, just ahead of the Timberwolves (108.9) and Knicks (110.2). On the season, the Raptors’ defense ranks 22nd.

By shot location (including free throws), the Raptors’ performance as viewed by NBA rank is shown below.

The takeaways from the chart above are not abundantly obvious. The Raptors don’t allow a opponents to shoot a particularly high proportion of shots from the ideal spots (FTs, at the rim, 3-pointers), though they don’t excel in guarding any particular area, either. The only quirk that stands out is that opponents are tremendously effective in the midrange area against Toronto, which is annoying, but altogether benign.

As for Valanciunas specifically, his issue is two-fold. First, he’s simply not quick enough to make rotations. Second, he doesn’t yet have the awareness to consistently make the right rotations. He’s fine when he’s just asked to guard the basket, but put him into motion and Valanciunas’s flaws start to emerge. Teams have made a note of Valanciunas’s immobility and exploited him in pick-and-roll scenarios. This puts Dwane Casey in a bind, as he prefers his bigs to be aggressive in hedging and helping, something Valanciunas is not yet able to pull off.

But the dilemma with taking Valanciunas off the floor is rebounding. He’s the Raptors’ best rebounder by far and with Amir Johnson rebounding at the rate of a small forward, the Raptors are susceptible to second chance points.

Furthermore, Valanciunas is the Raptors’ only true rim protector. Valanciunas is the only big who is holding opponents under 50 percent shooting around the rim, which makes sense as Valanciuas is the only 7-footer in the Raptors’ rotation.

Having said all that, the Raptors’ defense has been significantly better with Valanciunas on the bench. As noted by Eric Koreen of the National Post, the Raptors allow 100.4 points per 100 possessions when Valanciunas sits as compared to 109.1 when he plays. For reference, that represents the difference between the 4th-best defense and the 2nd-worst defense in the league.

In short: the Raptors are between a rock and a hard place with respect to Valanciunas.

Lightning round for the forums:

Q: What do you believe is the absolute upside for TRoss. And where do you realistically think he lands (player comparisons).

A: Absolute upside: Jason Richardson. Realistic outcome: Courtney Lee.

Q: What do you believe is the absolute upside for JV. And where do you realistically think he lands (player comparisons).

A: Absolute upside: Marcin Gortat. Realistic outcome: A slightly quicker Nikola Pekovic.

Q: What are the odds that Landry Fields gets a contract next year?

A: He’s pretty much in the same camp as Ronnie Brewer, that being a smart wing player who can defend and make cuts, but can’t shoot whatsoever. Brewer is unsigned, so, this appears to be the end for Landry too, that is, unless his elbow magically heals. If so, then he absolutely gets a deal. If this is the last we see of Fields in the league, however, I’m sure he can spin his fame and Stanford education into something great. I’m pulling for him.

Q: How much better does PPat get?

A: Not much better? He’s 25 and he’s made the most of his skills. He worked tirelessly to become a reliable 3-point shooter and he’s a decent defender who can blitz pick-and-rolls with hard hedges. That’s pretty solid.

Q: How important is Alex McKechnie to the Raps?

A: The Raptors are one of the healthiest teams in the league and DeRozan’s groin injury was the only serious ailment to afflict this team in the past two seasons. Find even one other organization that can hold the same claim. He’s a miracle worker.

Q: Which player is most important for righting the suddenly sub-par defense, and how does the team compensate for his wonky ankles?

A: There’s no in-house replacement for Amir. For what it’s worth, the Raptors are significantly better defensively when he’s on the floor, bad wheels and all.

Q: How have the best offenses generally fared in the playoffs?

A: A quick review of the last four championships and their offensive rating (in brackets). 2011 Mavericks (8th), 2012 Heat (8th), 2013 Heat (2nd), 2014 Spurs (7th). Defense wins championships, but not without a top-10 offense, it seems.

Q: How is it that DeMar (someone we see as a sub-par defender) makes this team a top 10 defense?

A: A fascinating question. Two things. One, the Raptors are not really qualitatively good enough to be a top 10 defense as currently constructed. Two, DeRozan makes the correct rotations most of the time and his free-throw shooting really helps to limit transition opportunities.

Q: Is this team being hurt by its relative lack of veteran presence? Conversely, with so many younger players getting playing time (entire starting line-up (save for Amir), Patterson, James Johnson, Vasquez… even Fields), how much more room for growth and improvement is there by the time the playoffs begin?

A: First question: No. The leadership structure on the team seems solid from afar. Second question: Improvements could come on defense. The Raptors proved last year that they could produce at a top-10 rate on defense. They should be able to bounce back to at least average defensively.

Q: Does Stiemsma have anything to offer this team at this point besides being a fifth big?