The NBA trade deadline is a day away, and that means rumours – and speculation – are flying fast and furious around the league. Pretty much everything you read at this point can, as a rule, be dismissed out of hand (can anyone else not wait for fake Wojbombs?), with Raptors rumours fitting into this category more than most, due to the well-documented secrecy of the front office.
With that being said, one rumour does have enough credibility attached to it that it bears discussion in this space – that courtesy of Grantland’s Zach Lowe, who explained in his trade deadline primer that the Raps are listening to offers on third-year swingman Terrence Ross, possibly in a move for a veteran big like David West or Kevin Garnett. Lowe, generally, is quite reliable and doesn’t reveal information like this without some strong basis (I’m looking at you, Ric Bucher), and so, again, it bears discussing: should the Raptors trade Terrence Ross?
Related: Masai Ujiri throws cold water on Terrence Ross trade talk
The cases for trading Ross at this point are academic, and numerous: after a promising second-year campaign, he’s disappointed in his third season. He’s found his way out of the rotation with the emergence of James Johnson, the addition of Lou Williams, and the expanding game of DeMar DeRozan. He’s still under team control for two more years at a reasonable salary, and has some promise, giving him value to trade partners. He’s a former slam dunk champ with a 50-point game under his belt who’s an easy sell to contending teams’ fans as a potential marquee late-season addition.
With that all being said, this is my plea, as a fan: don’t trade Terrence Ross.
It’s not that I fault Masai Ujiri and the front office for listening to offers on Ross – that’s their job, after all. I’d be disappointed if my general manager took anyone off the table, particularly a player who, at this point, has found himself on the outside of the team’s core nucleus, looking in. It makes perfectly rational sense to dangle your best/most expendable asset in order to improve a deep, contending squad.
With THAT being said, there’s another, perfectly rational reason not to move Ross: stock management. It comes straight out of Economics 101 and was touched on by Blake yesterday, but the general argument goes something like this: buy low, sell high. Masai’s done this excellently just this season with the Lou Williams trade (though, to be fair, the Bargs and Gay trades might make him the master of “buy low, sell low,” too).
If you didn’t get the gist from Blake’s column yesterday, the argument goes somewhat like this: Terrence Ross’ value, as it stands right now, is at the low point of what can be expected from him in the future. Unless the guy’s knees explode, he’s bound to, at the very least, keep up this pace of play for the foreseeable future (if not improve), at which point he’ll be far more valuable of a chip for the Raptors to move, if he’s still expendable. I expect that Masai has thought this far ahead, but the fact that Ross is even being thrown in rumours for a half-season of washed-up Kevin Garnett demonstrates just how far his value has fallen (also, unless you’re a masochist or hate Ross for some reason, why would anyone want to see him playing in Brooklyn?). On a purely economic level, this is not a good time to move Ross unless you’re desperate for the small improvement his current trade stock can give you (potentially bundled with picks and/or expirings).
“Fair enough,” you say: “we need that improvement. It’s got to come from somewhere.” Yes, indeed it does, say I, which is why a second important consideration that needs to be made here is the opportunity cost of moving Ross: the possibility that he is, without a doubt, the roster’s best chance for internal improvement THIS season (as opposed to the long-term improvement of the Brazilians).
I’m of the mind, as is most of the fanbase, that James Johnson has rightfully played his way into the starting lineup and should stay there for the foreseeable future, but a rejuvenated Ross could give the Raptors a fearsome bench trio of scorers with Vasquez and Williams – three guys who could, conceivably, lead their team on scoring on any given night, or singlehandedly shoot the Raptors to a win.
Ross has always been moody and prone to swings of good or bad, but last year, his game picked up after the All-Star break: his per game scoring average jumped a point and a half (from 10.3 to 11.8 – that first number drops to 9.5 once you take out his 51-point explosion). Out of all the Raptors on the current roster, he’s the only one of significance whose game could be expected to improve just given the law of averages, and if he can find a way to change his fortunes just a tad, consistency could be closer than we think.
This, of course, leads to the maturity argument, which is the crux of every “trade him, don’t trade him” argument surrounding Ross: the guy IS moody, slips in and out of games, and has been in the league long enough that his lack of consistency can hardly be considered a fluke. This, admittedly, is a tougher case to rationally argue against, but the counter theory is simply this: he’s 23. In an alternative universe, Ross is a rookie, and at this point in his career, it’s not as if he can be labelled a “bust” based on his accomplishments. I won’t drop a statistical comp, but there are good ones here to Jason Richardson and Paul George.
Put simply, despite Raptor fans’ collective malaise at Ross’ play, the guy is still a lottery ticket with a low ceiling and salary. He’s choosing door A or B, and Kevin Garnett is trading a choice to pick for the 500 bucks in Wayne Brady’s hand. Yeah, you could use the money, but, really, isn’t it more exciting to take the gamble?
And, of course, to extend the analogy, that 500 bucks is still going to be there at the end of the season, or next year, or whenever. But, let’s be honest: if the Raptors are really going to make a run this year, a consolation prize isn’t going to be the addition that gets them there.
But that Ferrari behind door A? Maybe that will.
