The Raptors drop into Houston fresh off a satisfying team win last night in Atlanta.
- Record: 37-17 (8-2)
- Eastern (2)
- Atlantic (1)
Ranks
- 112.1 ORTG (2)
- 106.6 DRTG (17)
- 93.1 Pace (20)
- 73.1 DRB% (24)
- 0.554 TS% (4)
Latest Results
Leaders
- Kyle Lowry 18.5 ppg
- Jonas Valanciunas 8.6 rpg
- Kyle Lowry 7.2 apg
- Jonas Valanciunas 1.2 bpg
- Kyle Lowry 1.6 spg
- Record: 36-18 (6-4)
- Western (4)
- Southwest (2)
Ranks
- 106.6 ORTG (12)
- 103.4 DRTG (9)
- 96 Pace (3)
- 73.4 DRB% (23)
- 0.544 TS% (10)
Latest Results
Leaders
- James Harden 27.4 ppg
- Dwight Howard 11 rpg
- James Harden 6.8 apg
- Terrence Jones 1.7 bpg
- James Harden 2 spg
Starting off 4 games in 5 nights on the road against winning teams with a win over the Conference leader was great, but things aren’t getting much easier for them tonight in Houston. This is Toronto’s first game against the Rockets this season. When the two teams met up last year, the first game was before the Rudy Gay trade, and the second game happened without Kyle Lowry for the Raps, and with Omer Asik and Chandler Parsons playing the biggest minutes for the Rockets. So, while these two teams are somewhat familiar with each other, this will be the first time that the current incarnations of each squad has matched up against one another. Dwight Howard remains out for the Rockets, who will also have new acquisitions Pablo Prigioni and KJ McDaniels to try and mix into the rotation. Both teams are on the SEGABABA, so that’s something of a wash. Let’s get into the nitty gritty.
When these two teams met late last season, the Raptors beat the Rockets in large part of out James Hardening them. The Raptors lived at the free throw line, getting a free throw on a ridiculous 38% of their field goal attempts. DeRozan led the way with 10 attempts. With the Raptors doing an even better job of getting to the line as a team this season, this could be a big factor in tonight’s game. Harden has set up shop at the free line again this season, but the rest of the Rockets are giving up far more foul shots than they’re taking. The Rockets are giving up the fifth most frequent amount of free throws per opponent field goals attempted in the league, a stat that should have the Raptors licking their lips. The Rockets free throw problems are partially the fallout of active defense from guys like Patrick Beverly, but much more the result of their attempts to play defense without the adequate personnel without Dwight Howard. The Rockets have fouled at an alarmingly high rate with Howard off the floor this season. Music to the ears of Lou, Kyle and DeMar.
Pace could also play a role in tonight’s matchup. The Rockets play at the third quickest pace and attempt the most three pointers in the league as a percentage of their attempts. The Raptors have struggled against other similarly oriented teams like Phoenix and Golden State. It’s tough to draw hard conclusions from that small of a sample size, and Golden State is a much better team than Houston, but there is something to the pattern. The Raptors aggressively trapping defense has a history of giving up wide-open three pointers to teams who play small and fast, passing out of the trap and outpacing the frantically recovering Raptors. This kind of breakdown has also resulted in the Raptors leaking out a high number of offensive rebounds. They’ve been better on the defensive glass as a team over the last month, but it has been a source of weakness on the team through the season. James Johnson has started to play a role as a power forward in lineups when Casey wants to matchup against small ball, and there should be plenty of opportunity for that look tonight.
On the flip side of that coin, Casey will have an opportunity to try and hammer the Rockets with size a little bit. The Rockets have been playing long stretches without a traditional centre on the floor in Howards absence. Josh Smith and Terrence Jones have gotten some run together. Motiejunas has had to play a lot of 5 for the Rockets, and while he’s a 7-footer having a solid season, he plays much more like a power forward in terms of help defense. He isn’t a rim protector. And when he’s off the floor, the Rockets don’t have anybody over 6’9 on the team. There are buckets and rebounds available in the post, should Valanciunas decide to assert himself and get the minutes to do it. The Amir Johnson pick and rolls that have been increasing in frequency lately should find a nice open lane to the hoop as well.
It’s a good matchup against a very tough team for Toronto. The Raptors don’t have anyone who can guard James Harden, but that doesn’t exactly differentiate them from most other teams. Harden will almost assuredly be able to get his against the Dinos. In order to win, the Raptors will need to recover out of the trap to challenge threes and control the boards defensively. Offensively, if they can exploit their size and get to the line, they’ll be in competitive shape. Go Purp!
