When the Raptors drafted Valanciunas, Raptor fans hoped that the franchise would finally have a center that could anchor the team for the future. It’s not that the team never had a decent center. The team drafted Marcus Camby after their first season, but he struggled as a rookie and was traded away the next summer. Antonio Davis ended up making the All Star, but he was undersized and played the 5 only out of necessity.
Of course there was Hakeem Olajuwon, but he ended up playing a year longer than he should have and that one year happen to be with the Raptors. A year most would like to forget.
In 2004, the Raptors drafted Rafael Araujo, hoping he would replace the departed Antonio Davis, and we all know how that went.
Rasho Nesterovic ably manned the position before losing his starting position to Andrea Bargnani. Chris Bosh also played some center, but never wanted to play the position and shouldn’t really be considered one.
So while the Raptors have had some talent at the center position (including an MVP/Hall of Famer, Defensive Player of the Year, All Star, starter for a Championship team and a 20 ppg scorer), only Bargnani was a Raptor during his prime years, and the less said about those years, the better.
Wait, I don’t remember this season…
Valanciunas is about to enter his fourth season, having just turned 23. Statistically, he’s improved every season, finishing 2nd in the league in field goal percentage last year and breaking the 20 PER mark. Despite that, last season felt like a bit of a disappointment for Valanciunas. While he improved on his previous season, he simply didn’t make the leap many hoped he would and ended up playing fewer minutes than the season before, as Casey never fully trusted him on either end of the floor.
Much has been written about Valanciunas’ struggles, both here and elsewhere, but it is important to remember that he’s only been in the league for three seasons and big men do tend to take longer to develop. Yes, it’s an overused sentiment, but it’s also true. DeAndre Jordan struggled to get consistent minutes in his first two seasons before blossoming into the player he is, today.
While the young big man showed improvement defensively, he still gets caught out of position, too often, and simply doesn’t have the instincts to ever become an elite defender, but that doesn’t mean he can’t become an above average one. He has the desire and ability. And while he’s become one of the better rebounders in the league (13th per 48 minutes), he’s been criticized for not grabbing the big rebound, and it’s a valid criticism. Too often did his opponent grab and important offensive rebound, with Valanciunas not boxing out and being out of position. Adding strength will help, but so will experience.
On the offensive end, it’s an interesting case. Valanciunas is among the best at scoring around the basket, in terms of percentages, the Raptors actually had more trouble scoring when he was on the floor than when he was off. There are a couple of reasons for that.
The first is that Valanciunas may be a very efficient scorer, but he’s not a very quick one. When Valanciunas gets the ball in the post, the entire offense often comes grinding to a halt. His teammates end up ball watching as Jonas holds onto the ball before making his move. Valanciunas’ offensive game is designed for the half court, unfortunately the rest of the roster isn’t designed for the half court.
This is obviously a problem, and not one that will probably be addressed this season.
And to make matters worse, Valanciunas simply doesn’t see the court well. He too often has blinders on when he’s got the ball in the post, ignoring teammates he should be passing to, but he also often fails to see other defenders who will double him and swipe at the ball when he’s not looking. Like his defense, experience will help with this and it’s an area he knows he has to improve.
There’s no reason, yet, to think Valanciunas can’t end up becoming an All Star and being worthy of his rather large extension (his contract, that is). Having better defenders and better shooters around him should help immensely.
While the Raptors haven’t had the best starting centers, throughout their history, the backup center position has been mostly populated by journeymen or power forwards who were forced into service as the backup 5 simply because of a lack of talent there. Last year, Amir Johnson spent almost as many minutes backing up Valanciunas as he did at the power forward position, where he started most of the last four years. And before that, Aaron Gray was the guy called upon to spell Valanciunas.
And this is probably why the signing of Bismack Biyombo was looked at so optimistically by Raptor fans.
Not too long ago, Biyombo had scouts drooling with his size, athletic ability and defensive instincts. He first turned heads when he dominated the Nike World Hoop Summit, in 2011, by racking up a triple double (points, rebounds, blocks), the first in the history of the summit. Yes, he was raw, especially offensively, but you couldn’t teach what he had. And he was drafted 7th the same year the Raptors took Valanciunas.
Unfortunately for Biyombo, he was even more raw than he seemed. While he still displayed great defensive potential, he never gained the offensive polish he needed to excel in the NBA. With Biyombo on the floor, it was like Charlotte (the only team he played for in his first four years) was playing 4 on 5 on the offensive end, and not even his intimidating shotblocking or rebounding could make up for it.
One problem is that, while Biyombo is a great shot blocker, he’s still learning the game and doesn’t yet have a great feel for what to do defensively. He can be easily faked out and is a better help defender than post defender. Plus, he is not the least bit comfortable when he has to defend an opponent who can face up and his from outside.
On offense, he’s learned that if he’s outside of three feet, then it’s probably not a good idea to shoot the ball, which is why he’s been able to shoot above 50% the last two seasons.
Despite all that, Biyombo is just 23 years old and still has the physical abilities that scouts fell in love with. He’s never going to become the player many hoped, but he should be able to fill a need for the Raptors.
Luis Scola also will probably end up playing some center, when the Raptors go small. He can score, is crafty and is a better defender than he used to be, although that’s not saying a whole lot.
Quick hits to round-off the discussion:
Biggest Strength: Both Valanciunas and Biyombo can rebound the ball, something that the Raptors had trouble doing last season.
Biggest Weakness: While both Valanciunas and Biyombo have talent, they both lack experience and will make their share of mistakes.
What I like: Both Valanciunas and Biyombo should be able to improve, this season, and it will be fun to see how they progress.
What I don’t like: Valanciunas’ game isn’t suited to the current roster and Casey doesn’t seem to know how to use him. If he doesn’t make a fairly big improvement this season, something needs to happen.
Unfortunate prediction: Valanciunas will continue to bring the offense to a halt and see his progress level off.
Bold prediction: Biyombo will thrive on a new team and new system and become one of the best backup centers in the league.
X-Factor: Casey and his inability to adjust his game plan to give Valanciunas a better chance to succeed last year played a big part in the big man’s lack of progress, and there’s the same danger this season. Casey needs figure out how to utilize Valanciunas’ talents, or one of them might be on a different team next year.
