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Raptors Mailbag: Taking aim at the Cavaliers, Powell’s role, getting some rest, and more

The penultimate mailbag of the regular season bounces kind of all over the place. Shocking, I know.

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With back-to-back days off, we’re back for the usual #RRMailbag. It’s been a while, given somewhat of a condensed schedule, and this will be the second-to-last one during the regular season, based on the Toronto Raptors’ remaining schedule. If you want to catch up on all the previous mailbags, you can find them here.

Before we go ahead: We’ve started a Patreon page at patreon.com/RaptorsRepublic. If you appreciate the content we produce, want to support RR, and have the means to do so, any contribution is greatly appreciated and will help us continue to do what we do (and try to do even more).

Alright, let’s get this money.

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Raptors questions

He’ll probably be in consideration, for sure, especially since voters have shown in the past they’ll look beyond the moves of a single season.

The DeMarre Carroll contract can’t really be evaluated here in Year One, but Bismack Biyombo has proven one of the biggest bargains of the offseason, Cory Joseph’s deal looks way better now than it did at first, Luis Scola was a cost-effective addition, the team found a steal in the second round in Norman Powell (also getting a first-round pick and cap flexibility in the process, sending out only Greivis Vasquez), he convinced Jason Thompson to come to Toronto, he signed Terrence Ross and Jonas Valanciunas to extensions that will be, at worst, market value, he retained Dwane Casey and added two great assistants (Rex Kalamian and Andy Greer) to the staff, all while helping get a D-League expansion team up and running effectively, adding the BioSteel Centre to the franchise’s asset base, and hosting All-Star Weekend.

He doesn’t get 100 percent of the credit for that insane run-on sentence, but he gets the bulk of it, and Executive of the Year is more of an organizational award, anyway. He’ll definitely get a few votes, but whether he can hang with the Warriors, Spurs, Trail Blazers, Mavericks, and even Cavaliers remains to be seen. I’d be shocked if he doesn’t land in the top-five, and he’s got a pretty good case. The only thing I could see as a real hurdle would be…

The honest truth is that I have no idea. The team is so tight-lipped about everything it’s tough to get a read – the silence could mean Carroll’s suffered a setback or that he’s set to return tomorrow. They’re quiet for the sake of being quiet, not to quell panic or manage expectations.

Reading the tea leaves, it does seem the team may have been liberal with their initial return timeline, one Carroll’s already missed by several weeks. It was unlike the Raptors to confirm any sort of timeline, anyway, but trying to figure a reason why they’d intentionally under-shoot would be grasping for straws without enough information.

Where I’m at is as follows: I’m choosing to believe he’s due back soon, and Josh Lewenberg’s recent report that he’s targeting a late-March return is accurate. I’ve had March 28 circled, personally. It’s the first game back from a three-game road trip and would give him 10 games, eight if he sits one half of back-to-backs. The longer it goes beyond that date, the more worried I’ll grow, but March 28 would give him plenty of time. It’s not necessarily blind optimism or trust in reports, there’s just too little information to know one way or the other, and I don’t want to assume the worst.

For the remainder of the regular season, I think Norman Powell continues to get run. And you’re right, he’s earned them, though I don’t know if “earned more” is necessarily correct – he’s been great, but he’s still going to be deeper in the playoff rotation. If Carroll’s fully healthy, he’s assuming his old role, not playing fewer minutes for a rookie. That’s especially true because playoff rotations tend to tighten.

With that said, I think Powell’s played his way into being 10A in a playoff rotation, which is much more prominent a role than could have been expected before the season. The Raptors will go with their long-presumed starting five, their killer four-man bench unit, and then, depending on the defensive matchup, one of Powell, James Johnson, or Jason Thompson could see time. Powell’s adept at chasing guards and wings around screens and limiting the touches of 3-point shooters, while Johnson is still the better bet opposite bulkier combo-forward types (despite his recent uneven play), and Thompson could eat a chunk of Luis Scola’s minutes in some scenarios.

That is, if Casey needs to go 10-deep. My guess is he’d like to keep a tight nine-man rotation, which I’m in favor of, given how good those nine have been and given the fact that opposing teams won’t be rolling out bench-heavy units.

Not legitimate, no. I get the logic – they’re 1.5 games back of Cleveland largely without Carroll and missing Valanciunas for a long stretch – but the Cavs are the Cavs. In the words of Ric Flair, to be the man, you’ve got to beat the man, and 2-1 in a regular-season series isn’t beating the man in this case.

That’s not to say they can’t beat them, of course. They just can’t claim to be better until they do.

This is a great question, because it could really go two ways: He goes into full “You all doubted us” mode or continues with the “We haven’t accomplished our goal yet” rhetoric. I think he’d lean the latter, saving the former for the end of the season.

Man…how many carbs is Lowry going to eat when the season ends? He’s earned them. Kinda want to take him to Momofuku Milk Bar as a thank you when it’s all over.

Those are the big ones. Valanciunas and Johnson are essentially getting rest while banged up, and Patterson’s injury wound up giving him what will turn out to be four days off. Joseph may not need more than that stretch, either. I’d guess that Lowry and DeRozan each take two nights off down the stretch, Scola gets another one or two, but mostly, Casey just tries to manage their non-game workloads as best as possible. I’m so risk-averse I’m guilty of sometimes just looking at the minutes total and forgetting that there’s a lot more that goes into fatigue management than that.

Were this early in the season, I’d say yes, because Lucas Nogueira’s a ton of fun. But this close to the playoffs, where there’s little chance Nogueira plays but Thompson could have a role, getting Thompson reps in the system and getting him up to speed is a worthwhile goal.

Looking backward

This doesn’t line up. They got Lowry the year after they were openly tanking and narrowly missed Damian Lillard. So, they couldn’t have landed Lillard regardless of what they did on the Lowry front. And Giannis Antetokounmpo could become a multi-time All-Star and I definitely don’t undo the trade for Lowry (what turned out to be the No. 12 pick, three spots ahead of where Antetokounmpo went). I know Ujiri really wanted Antetokounmpo, but I’m sure he’d say the same, given what Lowry’s meant to this team the last few years.

Looking forward

I think he’s down the depth chart for a potential head-coaching gig, even with the great job he’s done. For one, I think it reinforces that he’s a really strong player development coach, which is awesome but is only going to be attractive in a head-coaching facility to certain teams. The Raptors, in win-now mode for the time being, don’t really need a player development coach if they make a change behind the bench, so Mermuys, if he’s to get an NBA head coaching gig, may be destined for a rebuilding squad.

I’m not sure that’s in his immediate plans. I’d guess he’s going to repeat with Raptors 905 next year, and he’s mentioned to me on more than a few occasions that the experience in the D-League will make him a better assistant coach if he returns to the NBA. He’s still only 34 or 35, so there’s plenty of time for him to climb the ladder step by step and gain the requisite skills and experience. For now, he’s a hell of an asset for the Raptors organization.

“Tony Allen with a jump shot,” is how Mermuys described it to me early in the season, and it’s tough to word it better. I actually think Powell can be a better passer off the attack, too, though even with how impressive he’s been so far, he still have more to prove before he’s considered in Allen’s defensive class. That’s one heck of a ceiling for a second-round pick.

I’m really not sure. I don’t think the Raptors are going to use both picks, or at least not both on players who will be NBA-bound next season. I think they learned this year that committing too much of the roster to development projects can hamstring you some and do a disservice to the prospects themselves (Anthony Bennett), and they’ll still theoretically have four players on rookie deals next season. My instinct is to answer yes for that reason, but so much is up in the air for the coming season, it’s hard to tell. Nogueira could be moved, Delon Wright could push for time, Powell could lock down a larger share of the rotation, or any number of things could happen to make a longer-term bet more reasonable.

Forced to guess right now, I’d say they look to add a player with at least one NBA skill (not “NBA ready,” because there’s rarely such a thing) while still keeping an eye toward “best player available” (my preferred drafting strategy). The team could have holes at SF, PF, and C this offseason, and we saw last year how quickly a perceived position of need can shift.

I’m not a big fan right now, and I think he’d be really well-served by a second college season, unlikely though that may be. There are NBA teams who will be more than happy to cash in a pick to develop him on their dime, possibly even in the lottery.

In terms of whether he can play the four, he might have to, but it also may not matter with how fluid position definitions are becoming in the NBA. Even though he’s 7-foot, his wingspan is only 7-foot-2, and he doesn’t have the strength or post-game to really play down low right now. At the same time, guys who can shoot threes and protect the rim are a rare combination, and it’s not too difficult to invert an offense to leverage his shooting or use his defensive skill in a way that doesn’t leave him in need of his strength as often as his agility and quickness.

If Biyombo walks, they’ll definitely have to add a third center, whether by veteran minimum or the draft (I see you, Domantas Sabonis). If Nogueira isn’t dealt, the team has to at least give him the chance to compete for the backup job, something minor injuries have precluded him from doing in each of the last two training camps. I still think Nogueira’s an NBA rotation player if he can figure out the psychological part of bringing the same attention and energy every time out. I’d obviously prefer to retain Biyombo than lose him, but that’s probably not realistic from a cap perspective.

Miscellaneous

Pretty good chance Brazilian Councillman Jamm has me Jammed-up. I just hope you’re ready for all you can handle from Kris Humphries and Justin Holiday.
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