The primary talking point coming out of Game 2 has been the dominance of Jonas Valanciunas. While he battled foul trouble in Game 1 and struggled to finish chip-ins around the rim, he was a force while on the floor, setting a Raptors franchise record for postseason rebounds in just 21 minutes of action. He avoided that foul trouble in Game 2 and spent 31 minutes wreaking havoc as a result.
All told, through two games, Valanciunas has 35 points and 34 rebounds in just 52 minutes, shooting 14-of-32 and swatting away three shots, a number that doesn’t really do the job he’s done as a help defender justice. He’s been great, and the fact that the Raptors have been outscored by six points with him on the floor has little to do with his individual play. With Valanciunas on the floor, the Raptors are grabbing 52.6 percent of available rebounds, seeing a spike at both ends, and his finishing in Game 2 was paramount to the team’s strong early play.
The Raptors are fully expecting the Pacers to adjust for Game 3, and Valanciunas and company are ready for the counters they may need to make as a result.
How, specifically, the Pacers adjust could go a number of different ways. Here are a few options and what they would mean for the Raptors.
Send weakside help on the dive
This one’s pretty straightforward, and it’s something a few teams do to muck up the Raptors pick-and-roll actions when Valanciunas shares the floor with Luis Scola. Basically, instead of guarding a Kyle Lowry-Valanciunas pick-and-roll with just their two primary checks or sending strongside help (something no team wants to do), the Pacers can continue to show pressure on the ball-handler (Lowry, or even DeMar DeRozan), then send a third body from the weak wing to bump Valanciunas on the dive.
Despite shooting well from outside this year, opponents still treat Scola as a non-shooter, daring him to make them pay in order to snuff out higher-EV parts of the Toronto offense. In what’s been a funny twist to start games, Scola and Lavoy Allen have been taking turns completely abandoning each other to help in this way.
As 8 Points, 9 Seconds points out, though, this isn’t a very Frank Vogel thing to do, and their bigs are inexperienced with it. (Ditto for dropping under screens on Lowry/Cory Joseph, which they cover in more detail.)
Counter
It’s a reasonable gamble for the defense, and it’s yet another reason to start Patrick Patterson at the power forward spot. It’s not a knock on Scola, who has been solid so far in the series and brings a ton to the team from a leadership perspective, but a Patterson-Valanciunas duo has long made more sense on paper, and the numbers have bore it out emphatically this season. Personally, I’d shift DeMarre Carroll back to the bench and deploy him as the backup at both forward spots until he looks up to the Paul George assignment, starting Patterson and Norman Powell in the process. (I realize that’s a detraction from my suggested Game 2 adjustment of starting Carroll, but I expected Carroll to look better than he did, and I also suggested it assuming Dwane Casey wouldn’t make the Scola-Patterson swap. One of Carroll or Patterson has to start, basically. Or both.)
If changing the starting lineup after a win seems strange, this is the playoffs. Closing out a game with DeRozan was strange, too. You have to be proactive, and ensuring there’s nobody the Pacers can comfortably cheat off of on the weak side of the floor will prevent them from over-helping the Raptors’ initial actions involving Valanciunas.
Patterson’s also just been one of the team’s most important players and should be playing 35 minutes in this series, something that’s tough to do if he comes off the bench.
Go small
Valanciunas got in foul trouble in Game 1 in part because of GAHHH CONSPIRACY SCOTT FOSTER RABBLE but also in part because of Myles Turner. Going smaller could make things tougher on Valanciunas defensively, requiring him to come out a little further from the rim and contest jumpers, then recover back in help. He’s gotten better at that this season, and the Pacers don’t have bigs who can extend beyond long twos, so it might be tenable. The Pacers might have to start Turner, anyway, if Ian Mahinmi (back) can’t go (more on this in a second).
That might also let them hedge on to ball-handlers and still recover onto Valanciunas better. When Valanciunas isn’t the screener, the Pacers could try to use a smaller player to get under him fronting the post and getting hands in the way on his catch, trying to exploit Valanciunas’ still-developing decision-making. So long as Valanciunas is disciplined on the defensive end, the Raptors would probably be fine with this approach, as his rebounding advantage would be even more pronounced and he’d be a major post threat against any non-Mahinmi big.
Going small might be something the Pacers look to do at the four, too, inserting Solomon Hill (who struggled in Game 2 but is a really nice DeRozan switch option on 2-4 screens) or C.J. Miles (whose shooting could help get their offense going). That wouldn’t have a profound impact on Valanciunas beyond the glass, but the Pacers may look to do it to gain an edge elsewhere since they’re getting hammered on the boards, anyway, and it makes the Scola-Valanciunas pairing even less livable.
Counter
The Raptors can just match smaller themselves. And/Or let Valanciunas dominate so long as he’s out of foul trouble. Patterson isn’t a “small” power forward, but he’s quick and rangy enough to play the role opposite Hill or Miles and can capably cover George, and the Raptors might embrace a mutual shift to going smaller. (I’m actually really interested to see a Carroll-Patterson frontcourt at some point, and like the idea of a KL-CJ-DD-DC-PP look, though there’s little need to try that out for heavy minutes while Valanciunas is so thoroughly dominating.)
Whether the Pacers go smaller at the four or the five – and I think they will – the Raptors should be comfortable, at least when Scola and Valanciunas aren’t paired together.
The Ian Mahinmi question
Mahinmi is considered day-to-day with a lower-back issue, and if he’s out for Game 3, the Pacers are going to be really thin in the frontcourt. With subtle improvements across the board this year, Mahinmi’s emerged as a quality piece and an important part of many of Indiana’s best defensive lineups. Losing him would render the team without a big-man with the size to bang with Valanciunas. That might force Indiana’s hand with respect to starting Turner or starting Hill/Miles and shifting Allen to the five, and it could force them into using Jordan Hill.
Like we did ahead of the series, we asked Jared Wade of 8P9S for his take on a few of these potential adjustments.
Blake Murphy: If Ian Mahinmi can’t go, or even if he can, what do you think the Pacers can do to contain Jonas Valanciunas?
Jared Wade: Mahinmi was listed as day-to-day with a sore back the forced him out of Game 2. He was never fully ruled out of the game as it was going on, and the two days off before Game 3 will obviously help. But, yeah, the Pacers are already having an awful time stopping JV and trying to do so without Ian, or a limited Ian, would make a tough assignment near impossible.
Myles Turner is a good rim protector, but he struggles outside of the paint. So Kyle Lowry would likely have him on skates in the pick-and-roll or Jonas would get more lobs. Really, it’s going to take better rotations on the weakside. They might just have to make Scola or whoever else is on the floor prove they can hit the jumpers. Because Jonas is mauling them, not only with points but also cleaning up the glass as the slow-to-rotate Pacers D has no hope to box him out after a shot.
In short, the Pacers *can* contain him. Vogel is a very smart defensive coach and will devise a strategy. But it won’t be easy and they will likely be sacrificing open shots elsewhere. At this point, it’s probably better to lose elsewhere, however. They need to make him the focus on the game plan — and not just on D. Indiana has had its best success when he is on the sideline, so Paul George and Monta Ellis need to go at the big man and make him try to stop them at the rim without fouling. Getting him back in foul trouble would naturally be the best way to keep him from terrorizing the paint.
Blake Murphy: Is there any chance Frank Vogel returns to a smaller starting lineup? It might sacrifice rebounding, already a disadvantage for them, and create post-up disadvantages, but Solomon Hill could provide additional help covering the pick-and-roll, and C.J. Miles might be able to help goose the offense with his shooting.
Jared Wade: If Mahinmi is out, this could be an option, sure. But at this point, Vogel has to be watching film of JV owning the lane and ripping his hair out.
I agree that C.J. Miles might be a good counter. He hasn’t had an impact on this series but he did end the regular season on a hot streak. So perhaps if the Pacers can’t defend, they can make up for some of the second-chance points by scoring more themselves. At this point, I doubt the Raptors would make too many adjustments until Indiana proves it can slow down the pick and roll and JV’s rim hanging. Perhaps Scola or Pat Pat would get some easy buckets on CJ Miles. But he would also likely get the chance to make it up with a few open 3s as well.
The one thing that is entirely clear, however, is that something needs to change. Whether it is lineup-related or a tactical adjustment, Vogel better be concocting some new scheme to deal with Jonas Valanciunas, the unexpected Raptors MVP so far in these playoffs.
(Note: Apologies for not having video clips to accompany the post and illustrate some of the points/strategies. I just moved and only just got internet late this morning, so I’ve been restricted to coffeeshop WiFi for a few days, precluding video work.)
